Bahrain pre-season race sims have predicted the contenders in the opening part of the season for the last 4 years.
Unless you think Red Bull are hiding a second a lap in race pace when compared to Ferrari it's actually pretty clear. I dont know why you think its unclear. Leclercs stint in the heat was chef's kiss today. It was like the one Lando did last year going low 1.33s and 1.32s in the race stint. Nothing that Red Bull have shown indicates they're l close enough to threaten Leclerc.Seanspeed wrote: ↑21 Feb 2026, 01:50I dont think anything is 'clear' at all regarding the top four teams. Gaps in testing performance have not been nearly big enough to pick out even a rough running order.f1isgood wrote: ↑20 Feb 2026, 22:28I think its pretty clear they're not fighting Ferrari/Mercedes. Where they are wrt McLaren remains to be seen. McLaren so far have been a bit disappointing. They should have had an easy transition really and looked like Ferrari (imo). I think they're lacking a bit when compared to Ferrari.Seanspeed wrote: ↑20 Feb 2026, 19:47
I dont know. Red Bull seem like a big unknown to me. As somebody else says, you can easily slow cornering performance by always running with a moderate amount of fuel onboard during faster laps. And we know Red Bull are sandbagging hard on the power unit since that first day. They could easily be way more competitive than it seems.
Slightly more illuminating was them being a bit slower than Mclaren during Verstappen's race sim, as you cant exactly run more fuel there, but there are still other ways to disguise pace.

I think something went awry or they changed their 'as many laps' plan on Friday morning. Look at this pictorial representation of the test2 :venkyhere wrote: ↑19 Feb 2026, 21:17https://racingnews365.com/max-verstappe ... ighlighted
“As a team, it was good to focus on longer run performance today,” the four-time champion said.
“We made some adjustments to the set up, which has given us some good direction overnight. Having a full day of running was positive.
“The tyres are super sensitive, so there’s still a lot of analysis required there.”
Friday will mark the final dayof on-track action before the sport heads to Australia for the season-opening Bahrain Grand Prix.
Verstappen asserted Red Bull's primary focus is on getting as many laps on the board as it can as it wraps up its test programme.
“On Friday, we will aim to get as many laps as we can between us,” he said.

They are not passing anyone on track this year. Its joever. P? and P8 for the foreseeable future.
Let's wait and see what the upgrades bring, they have been shouting about heavy in season development from the get go, updates every race apparently.

It's come out that Mercedes customer teams were not running with the newest upgraded engine during testing, so I still see RBR 3rd come race day. Merc, Ferrari/Mclaren, RBR..venkyhere wrote: ↑21 Feb 2026, 17:00Well, after looking at the 'fastest laps' data (of the entire testing), I am now starting to doubt my "RB22 = 4th fastest" conclusion. Spent some time analyzing VER's fastest lap from day3 against LEC's from day3 and ANT's from day2.
While it's generally understood that Mercedes is holding back a lot compared to other teams, and Ferrari is revealing a lot (still not full beans) compared to other teams, the below lap traces are interesting :
https://i.ibb.co/kgxvrgZr/Bahrain-test2 ... t-laps.png
- In the slow corners 1 and 10, LEC using his typical both-pedals-overlap to rotate the car (like he does in a Q lap) results in a cumulative loss of around 0.6-0.7 to both ANT & VER.
- The medium speed section 5-6-7 is the hardest to judge from this chart alone, wr.t how much is deploy-recharge v/s how much is chassis balance or weight, affecting the time spent here
- However the straights and the 11-12-13 long corners are the most interesting. Different locations to deploy/recharge, seems like. However, generally speaking, LEC is deploying a lot in the straights, while the other two are most probably super-clipping and recharging the battery. And VER seems to be the guy recharging heavily, ANT moderately. Assuming LEC has maintained the rulebook 4MJ max SoC swing ; I have my suspicions about the SoC swing window being smaller than 4MJ for the other two, so as to hide pace (VER to a larger extent than ANT).
Hence I am inclined to form a takeaway that it's not only Mercedes, the Redbull is also hiding quite a lot of pace (atleast in Q sims, if not the R sims). Let me know whether I am being an idiot.
venkyhere wrote: ↑21 Feb 2026, 17:00Well, after looking at the 'fastest laps' data (of the entire testing), I am now starting to doubt my "RB22 = 4th fastest" conclusion. Spent some time analyzing VER's fastest lap from day3 against LEC's from day3 and ANT's from day2.
While it's generally understood that Mercedes is holding back a lot compared to other teams, and Ferrari is revealing a lot (still not full beans) compared to other teams, the below lap traces are interesting :
https://i.ibb.co/kgxvrgZr/Bahrain-test2 ... t-laps.png
- In the slow corners 1 and 10, LEC using his typical both-pedals-overlap to rotate the car (like he does in a Q lap) results in a cumulative loss of around 0.6-0.7 to both ANT & VER.
- The medium speed section 5-6-7 is the hardest to judge from this chart alone, wr.t how much is deploy-recharge v/s how much is chassis balance or weight, affecting the time spent here
- However the straights and the 11-12-13 long corners are the most interesting. Different locations to deploy/recharge, seems like. However, generally speaking, LEC is deploying a lot in the straights, while the other two are most probably super-clipping and recharging the battery. And VER seems to be the guy recharging heavily, ANT moderately. Assuming LEC has maintained the rulebook 4MJ max SoC swing ; I have my suspicions about the SoC swing window being smaller than 4MJ for the other two, so as to hide pace (VER to a larger extent than ANT).
Hence I am inclined to form a takeaway that it's not only Mercedes, the Redbull is also hiding quite a lot of pace (atleast in Q sims, if not the R sims). Let me know whether I am being an idiot.