2026 Scuderia Ferrari HP F1 Team

[bananapeel23]

from article from AR https://autoracer.it/analisi-test-bahra ... melbourne/

• Again, they put Merc and Ferrari as the front runners with Mclaren and Red Bull behind. Merc is expected to have more in their engine but there's concerns from Toto about reliability as theyve went through a few engines during the test and had to run with a more conservative mapping.

• The fastest time Leclerc did on the last day of tests wasnt Ferrari's true pace, they say he had about 50kg of fuel onboard when he did it

Sounds too good to be true. The time and the way the car behaved suggests a much lower fuel load. 50 kg in 2026 is 2/3 tank, that's too heavy for a quali sim, especially a final one.

In general I think that sandbagging is being exaggerated. It has validity when testing is right before the first race on the same track, but the last 3 times testing was on a different track (2025, 2022 Barcelona, 2020) testing times were either faster or about the same as qualifying. My bet, with the C3 tyre in Bahrain the final quali time will be in the same ballpark as Leclerc's 31.9s. Plus/minus 4 tenths let's say, so a 31.5s - 32.3s.

I guess there is an argument to be made that the incentives to sandbag are unusually high this year. Clearly the teams weren't sandbagging much at all in 2025, but 2026 is a clean sheet car with little to no carryover from 2025. Teams wouldn't want to show their hand too early unless their solutions can't be copied (like the Ferrari diffuser).

[Badger]

from article from AR https://autoracer.it/analisi-test-bahra ... melbourne/

• Again, they put Merc and Ferrari as the front runners with Mclaren and Red Bull behind. Merc is expected to have more in their engine but there's concerns from Toto about reliability as theyve went through a few engines during the test and had to run with a more conservative mapping.

• The fastest time Leclerc did on the last day of tests wasnt Ferrari's true pace, they say he had about 50kg of fuel onboard when he did it

Sounds too good to be true. The time and the way the car behaved suggests a much lower fuel load. 50 kg in 2026 is 2/3 tank, that's too heavy for a quali sim, especially a final one.

In general I think that sandbagging is being exaggerated. It has validity when testing is right before the first race on the same track, but the last 3 times testing was on a different track (2025, 2022 Barcelona, 2020) testing times were either faster or about the same as qualifying. My bet, with the C3 tyre in Bahrain the final quali time will be in the same ballpark as Leclerc's 31.9s. Plus/minus 4 tenths let's say, so a 31.5s - 32.3s.

I guess there is an argument to be made that the incentives to sandbag are unusually high this year. Clearly the teams weren't sandbagging much at all in 2025, but 2026 is a clean sheet car with little to no carryover from 2025. Teams wouldn't want to show their hand too early unless their solutions can't be copied (like the Ferrari diffuser).

Not showing your hand also means not pushing your brand new concept to its limit. There are pros and cons, and different teams will make different choices. But the idea that it was a 50kg quali sim will age poorly, mark my words. Autoracer is trying to sell clicks and subscriptions in a down week.

[bananapeel23]

Sounds too good to be true. The time and the way the car behaved suggests a much lower fuel load. 50 kg in 2026 is 2/3 tank, that's too heavy for a quali sim, especially a final one.

In general I think that sandbagging is being exaggerated. It has validity when testing is right before the first race on the same track, but the last 3 times testing was on a different track (2025, 2022 Barcelona, 2020) testing times were either faster or about the same as qualifying. My bet, with the C3 tyre in Bahrain the final quali time will be in the same ballpark as Leclerc's 31.9s. Plus/minus 4 tenths let's say, so a 31.5s - 32.3s.

I guess there is an argument to be made that the incentives to sandbag are unusually high this year. Clearly the teams weren't sandbagging much at all in 2025, but 2026 is a clean sheet car with little to no carryover from 2025. Teams wouldn't want to show their hand too early unless their solutions can't be copied (like the Ferrari diffuser).

Not showing your hand also means not pushing your brand new concept to its limit. There are pros and cons, and different teams will make different choices. But the idea that it was a 50kg quali sim will age poorly, mark my words. Autoracer is trying to sell clicks and subscriptions in a down week.

50kg is ridiculous, yes. But he surely wasn't running empty either. I suspect it was 20-30kg or so.

[Badger]

I guess there is an argument to be made that the incentives to sandbag are unusually high this year. Clearly the teams weren't sandbagging much at all in 2025, but 2026 is a clean sheet car with little to no carryover from 2025. Teams wouldn't want to show their hand too early unless their solutions can't be copied (like the Ferrari diffuser).

Not showing your hand also means not pushing your brand new concept to its limit. There are pros and cons, and different teams will make different choices. But the idea that it was a 50kg quali sim will age poorly, mark my words. Autoracer is trying to sell clicks and subscriptions in a down week.

50kg is ridiculous, yes. But he surely wasn't running empty either. I suspect it was 20-30kg or so.

My guess, 10-20 kg. But we will only know for sure when they return.

But my point is that not everyone is hiding in testing all the time. Sometimes teams just want to know where they stand so they can develop from there.

[bluechris]

Not showing your hand also means not pushing your brand new concept to its limit. There are pros and cons, and different teams will make different choices. But the idea that it was a 50kg quali sim will age poorly, mark my words. Autoracer is trying to sell clicks and subscriptions in a down week.

50kg is ridiculous, yes. But he surely wasn't running empty either. I suspect it was 20-30kg or so.

My guess, 10-20 kg. But we will only know for sure when they return.

But my point is that not everyone is hiding in testing all the time. Sometimes teams just want to know where they stand so they can develop from there.

This is true but when they hide, they just push in some minisectors and then they take normal the rest of the lap. In the next lap they push elsewhere.

[bluechris]

Not showing your hand also means not pushing your brand new concept to its limit. There are pros and cons, and different teams will make different choices. But the idea that it was a 50kg quali sim will age poorly, mark my words. Autoracer is trying to sell clicks and subscriptions in a down week.

50kg is ridiculous, yes. But he surely wasn't running empty either. I suspect it was 20-30kg or so.

My guess, 10-20 kg. But we will only know for sure when they return.

But my point is that not everyone is hiding in testing all the time. Sometimes teams just want to know where they stand so they can develop from there.

This is true but when they hide, they just push in some minisectors and then they take normal the rest of the lap. In the next lap they push elsewhere.

Also in no way anyone pushed the engines.

[sucof]

Did Leclerc have the exhaust flap (monkey grill) on its last day quali sim runs?

[Stu]

Is there a posibility that the car will be so gently on the tyres that they will have problems heating them as before?

I don’t think so, I cannot imagine that anybody will be deploying the straight-mode in qualifying, which is the critical time for tyre heating. In the races it is more about not putting excessive heat into the tyres.

[subfire91]

Did Leclerc have the exhaust flap (monkey grill) on its last day quali sim runs?

Yes he did

[sucof]

Is there a posibility that the car will be so gently on the tyres that they will have problems heating them as before?

I don’t think so, I cannot imagine that anybody will be deploying the straight-mode in qualifying, which is the critical time for tyre heating. In the races it is more about not putting excessive heat into the tyres.

I did not mean the rotating rear wing, just the flap in front of the exhaust.

[venkyhere]

Did Leclerc have the exhaust flap (monkey grill) on its last day quali sim runs?

Why is it called 'monkey grill' (been seeing this desciption in this forum a lot) ?
it isn't even a 'grill' right ? it's a curved 'plate'.

[sucof]

Did Leclerc have the exhaust flap (monkey grill) on its last day quali sim runs?

Why is it called 'monkey grill' (been seeing this desciption in this forum a lot) ?
it isn't even a 'grill' right ? it's a curved 'plate'.

Grill because of the 1000+ degree celsius hot exhaust gasses
Named after the mokey seat that was legal for a few years.

[catent]

If the rules state when and under what circumstances the measurement is to be made, and at the same time, that this measurement is for the entire duration of the competition, everything is clear. Period.
There is no need to invent anything, just act according to the rules.

No, not everything is clear. Not at all.

Do you apply this same logic to Ferrari passing fuel flow measurement/compliance procedures in 2019? That the pre-session measurement process - which Ferrari passed, repeatedly - ensures rules compliance for the entirety of the subsequent competitive session?

How about flexible aero? Ferrari was alleged to be using a flexible underbody in 2022 and it was swiftly eradicated via a TD. Meanwhile, we didn't have alleged flexible aero - but rather clearly visible flexible aero on the front-wings of Mercedes and McLaren in 2024 and 2025 - and the FIA sat on their hands and dragged their feet for over a year before amending the static load tests.

McLaren's highly illegal rear-wing in Baku (and several prior races), too (which, to be fair, was immediately clamped down on, but candidly should've resulted in DQs, IMO - there was crystal clear, ironclad evidence of cheating by having the rear-wing DRS slot slightly open even when not activated).

Your claim - "If the rules state when and under what circumstances the measurement is to be made, and at the same time, that this measurement is for the entire duration of the competition, everything is clear. Period." - is completely disproven and contradicted by previous actions of the FIA. They have repeatedly shown a willingness to amend compliance tests to better align with the intent of the rules, and absolutely have refuted the notion that passing pre-session compliance checks entirely ensures legality during competition.

Just to play devils advocate...and maybe try to 'reason' why they treat these things differently:

Ferrari fuel flow was not conforming, it was tricking the measurement method and device. A
The flexy wings were conforming to the measurement method and devices.
The MB engine CR conforms to the measurement method and devices.

Also we have to wait and see. Development is going to be steep. There is a ton of time to gain over the year. Let's not write off the season based on rumors and little knowledge of what is really going on. Forza.

Ferrari’s 2022 floor also fully complied with the static load tests as they existed. TD-39 changed the static load tests for the underbody, effectively eliminating Ferrari’s floor flex.

Even if we set aside the fuel flow example, we still have clear inconsistency demonstrated in FIA’s approach to these respective issues.

[AlexP]

I guess there is an argument to be made that the incentives to sandbag are unusually high this year. Clearly the teams weren't sandbagging much at all in 2025, but 2026 is a clean sheet car with little to no carryover from 2025. Teams wouldn't want to show their hand too early unless their solutions can't be copied (like the Ferrari diffuser).

Not showing your hand also means not pushing your brand new concept to its limit. There are pros and cons, and different teams will make different choices. But the idea that it was a 50kg quali sim will age poorly, mark my words. Autoracer is trying to sell clicks and subscriptions in a down week.

50kg is ridiculous, yes. But he surely wasn't running empty either. I suspect it was 20-30kg or so.

But in theory, from a timing point of view, it should be in line with expectations, right? The 2025 cars didn't drop to low 28's because of the low grip on last year's track. If the FIA predicted that this year's cars would be 2/2.5 seconds slower, the average 1.5-second gain from the 50 kg weight decrease should bring them in line with FIA's expectations , at least on one of the most favourable circuits for this generation of cars.

[AR3-GP]

50kg is not unreasonable. The C4 is 7-8 tenths faster than the C3 that will be used in Bahrain. Considering that he did a few low 1.32s on the C3, then the C3 runs were likely done with less fuel than the C4 run.

Bahrain is the optimum circuit for exploitation of 2026 cars. 2026 car accelerates faster in all traction zones, is very similar in low and medium speed, and only slower in high speed but there’s only 1 high speed corner in Bahrain.