I think you’re unfairly discounting McLaren here, and throughout testing really. They didn’t do a proper a race sim in FP2, so we don’t really know where they are, but the limited amount that they did do was competitive with Mercedes and Ferrari. The first FP2 session is also usually when you can first see who is it at the front based on the lap times of their qualy runs, particularly with the start of a new rule set. McLaren not only had equivalent lap times to the other 2, but they also set the fastest lap.
I’d even go so far as to say that they’ve looked good all through testing. They mightn’t have been as flashy or gotten the same media attention as Mercedes and Ferrari, but there also wasn’t anything to justify any claims that there was a gap between them and the other 2. So I’m not sure why you’ve been saying that throughout testing, especially since you haven’t shown what you’ve been referring to that’s repeatedly led you to this conclusion. I could be wrong and completely missing whatever you’re looking at, but I haven’t actually seen any evidence that says McLaren is off the pace, and after FP2 I’m seeing the opposite.
That’s not to say I’m expecting them to be the best, but I think it’s safe to say that it’d be surprising if they aren’t competitive with Mercedes and Ferrari. That is barring any reliability issues of course. We’ll have to see how Norris goes in FP3 and if he makes up the lost ground from effectively missing FP1, but Piastri should be in the fight here in my opinion, even if the Mercedes and/or Ferrari has a slight edge on him. I definitely don’t think a podium is outside of the question for him, and while I don’t think McLaren will be overtly disappointed if they don’t win, I do think they’ll be upset if they don’t at least come home with a podium.
Red Bull on the other hand I don’t think will be fighting for a podium. Their race sims have been slightly off, but what’s more telling is the gap in their qualy runs. With 3 other teams having a comfortable advantage, I don’t think they’ll be able to fight for a podium without a lot of luck going their way. I’m just not seeing the same thing at all in McLaren’s lap times.
