China's stranglehold of electric vehicles

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Ciro Pabón
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Joined: 11 May 2005, 00:31

China's stranglehold of electric vehicles

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Well, could you build an electric car without magnets or computers?

If you cannot, then China has truly f***ed you and you did not notice.

First, some facts.

Rare earths are 17 elements, found together in rocks. The two of them more important for electric vehicles are lanthanum and neodymium.

Ovonics, an american firm, invented the Nickel Metal Hydrid (NiMH) battery in 1980. It doesn't work without lanthanum.

Prius battery, a typical NiMH battery (altough the one in this picture has been hacked). You need 2 kg of Neodymium to manufacture it
Image

Anyway, Ovonics started a joint venture with General Motors. 60% of the new venture went to GM.

Meanwhile, in 1982, GM invented the Neodymium-Iron-Boron magnet (NdFeB). Of course, it works with Neodymium. It allows you to create cheap, permanent magnets.

NdFeB magnet: you've probably seen some of them, with its "black pearl" shine. You need one tonne of those magnets to build a wind turbine
Image

So, everything went dandy: you need batteries and magnets to create electric vehicles (and almost anything that uses a computer), but the mighty GM had its corporate hands on both of them. Of course, almost everybody has heard how GM managed to shut down the technology: all EV-1 vehicles were destroyed in the desert and the Hummer came along.

I believe (deep in my latino heart) that it was a calculated move, specially after I saw this and, of course, because we knew what would happen to oil prices two years before the Iraq war (search for our posts on the subject):

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsJAlrYjGz8[/youtube]

Hey, don't worry, dudes. I'm an old hippie but I am not as boring as that. This post is not about another US conspiracy, it's about a China conspiracy, remember?

So, what has happened since then?

First, Deng Xiaoping was a clever guy, and not only because he avoided to be head of state or head of government or secretary of the Communist Party: he, instead, recevied the title of "dǎng hé guójiā zuìgāo lǐngdǎorén" or "Paramount Leader" (or, in F1Tech terms, forum moderator ;)).

Why would I have given him this egregious title? Hear this:

Famous words (at least in my house) by Xiaoping: "Arabia has oil, China has rare earth"
Image

Allow me to reinforce Deng's words with these:

"We are addicted to rare earths as much as we are addicted to oil... none of these elements are famous like gold or silver. None gets shipped in giant ore freighters like iron, aluminum or copper. Without these elements, much of the modern economy will just plain shut down" -- Byron King, editor of Energy & Scarcity Investors --

Now, the politics.

Where can you find rare earths? Well, check this (in this site your computer was born):

Banyan Obo mine: here you'll find 70% of rare earth deposits on this planet.
Image

Of course, there are other sites: Brazil, Canada, Vietnam (owned by Toyota in its entirety) and Colombia (yeah, the happiest country in the world will escape again the scarcity: we are no fools, a friend bought a Mercedes recently because of rare earths, that's why I'm writing this ;)).

Now, what has China said recently?

"Either by stupidity or design the Chinese flooded the market in the mid 1990s and collapsed the price. Almost everybody else went out of business". -- Anonymous source, BBC --

However, that's not a problem: if they want to sell the stuff cheap, it's ok, isn't it? Well, perhaps not. Arabia sold oil very cheap until they got us by our bollocks...

The end result is that the Californian and Canadian mines went out of bussiness. California hasn't produced the rare earths since 1998. The Canadian site should start to produce in 2011 but lost financing. Australia says it will produce it in 2011. Together they could produce 30% of what China produces. We have another oil monopoly in the making, this time with electric cars!

When will the price structure collapse?

Hear this: in 2006 China consumed 60% of the stuff.

Now, the punch line: China has put a ban on rare earth exports. It has put a cap on the current level of exports (35.000 tonnes). Of course, contraband is rampant (20.000 tonnes per year are smuggled somehow out of China, on top of the 35.000 legal tonnes).

Finally, the cherry on the cake: in the end, after all the moves and countermoves, 97% of all elements vital for green technology are produced in China.

You know what? China's demand is predicted to equal the entire Chinese supply by 2012.

Expect mainstream news to go frenzy about this subject in two years or so.

Any ideas? (or counterarguments?)
Ciro

autogyro
autogyro
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Joined: 04 Oct 2009, 15:03

Re: China's stranglehold of electric vehicles

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Very interesting and very educational Ciro, thanks.
Just one thing.
Unlike fossil fuels, rare earth elements do not get consumed during use and can be re-cycled.
OK at present this means uneconomic energy levels to achieve 100% but in theory it is possible.
So lets keep taking from the Chinese until we crack rare earth element re-cycling and then tell them we have got enough now thanks very much you can go back to producing rice in Africa on the backs of the third world.

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qw56q
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Re: China's stranglehold of electric vehicles

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However it makes my happy to say that to make electric cars you need microprocessor and for the microprocessor you need to go to the silicon island.

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Ciro Pabón
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Joined: 11 May 2005, 00:31

Re: China's stranglehold of electric vehicles

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Excuse me for insisting on the point, but you cannot make microprocessors without REE (Rare Earth Elements).
Ciro

captainmorgan
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Re: China's stranglehold of electric vehicles

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So? other than putting Taiwan over the next decade in an interesting light, what other ramifications would there be? supply curves are going to change but not Mad Max-change. alternative exploitation will emerge or re-emerge.

How much % on average do REM's comprise the cost of green technology products? If the technology is or becoming only just economical with significant subsidy, then widespread introduction would be delayed. But it wouldnt be the only resource that is getting more expensive either

Giblet
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Re: China's stranglehold of electric vehicles

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Nice post Ciro, as usual.

China has a knack for tapping their resources to the limit. They are not big believers of doing things with half their ass. They have no qualms about using it all to further themselves.

When building their F1 circuit, they used all the polystyrene in country, because they could.
Before I do anything I ask myself “Would an idiot do that?” And if the answer is yes, I do not do that thing. - Dwight Schrute

tc9604
tc9604
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Joined: 04 Oct 2009, 01:21
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Re: China's stranglehold of electric vehicles

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So where should we all be investing? Chinese sources (e.g. Bayan Obo if it is possible) or other smaller, up-and-coming mines e.g. US, Australia?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_earth ... stribution

Just_a_fan
Just_a_fan
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Joined: 31 Jan 2010, 20:37

Re: China's stranglehold of electric vehicles

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Well, they've got 20% of the world's population so it seems only fair that they get a major kick from such things. After all, OPEC has had a huge hold on the world economy for sometime now and they have a much smaller % of the world population.

What is going to happen is that the price of things will go up. They'll go up to something approaching their true value and then the West will start to squeal. But it's only fair - we've had it far to good for far too long. Time for someone else to hold the reins for a while, methinks...
If you are more fortunate than others, build a larger table not a taller fence.

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WhiteBlue
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Re: China's stranglehold of electric vehicles

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Electric vehicles will not be limited by raw materials but by electric storage, motor and inverter technologies. On top light weight monocoque manufacturing technology will play a big role.

I agree that China will play a big role there but not necessarily due to the supply of raw material but due to their massive state controlled research spending. China is currently spending tens of billions annually to research electric propulsion technologies and it has no alternative if it wants to use it's giant coal reserves to power the cars of the future. It makes a lot of sense to convert the coal stationary to electricity than to liquify it and then burn it in cars. The stationary power generation can achieve high efficiencies and apply eco protection much easier.
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best .............................. organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)

roost89
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Re: China's stranglehold of electric vehicles

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Informative article.
I didn't know about the REE being mainly produced in China, but what else isn't? :wink:
Also, Toyota owns Vietnam?! Seriously? If it's true, that's is simply amazing.

I think it's becoming more and more apparent that China has a stranglehold, or at least great power, in the mining & manufacturing world. I think as it gains power, there will be an upheaval amongst its citizens demanding better pay and conditions. Which for many Chinese is low and poor (part of the reason everything is so damn cheap). This upheaval will come from within China itself or from organisations outside of China gaining access/knowledge of it and spreading the word. With a possible curtailing of imports from China.
The same goes for most developing nations, such as India being another example. Labour is so cheap and living so expensive. You get lots of labour for pennies.

Sorry for the ranty bit, I tried to remain roughly on topic. I feel it veered wildly off. If it did, don't reply to that part (keep this beast on topic, ya?) :)

I'll hold you to your expectation Ciro.
"It could be done manually. It would take quite a while, but it could be done. There is however a much more efficient and accurate way of getting the data. Men with lasers." Wing Commander Andy Green

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flynfrog
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Joined: 23 Mar 2006, 22:31

Re: China's stranglehold of electric vehicles

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Here is an article we may run out of batteries before we run out of oil

http://www.meridian-int-res.com/Project ... blem_2.pdf

autogyro
autogyro
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Joined: 04 Oct 2009, 15:03

Re: China's stranglehold of electric vehicles

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flynfrog wrote:Here is an article we may run out of batteries before we run out of oil

http://www.meridian-int-res.com/Project ... blem_2.pdf
I have just watched a video of an old Datsun electric vehicle with 'lead acid' batteries beating the quarter mile times of my old Mustang.
When I owned garages, we used to weigh in lead acid batteries that no longer held a charge to recycle the lead. The lead was still there just the same as the Lithium is in Lion batteries when they no longer hold a charge. It just needs the investment in recycling and the will to kill the ignorance and complacency.
Of course like rare earth elements, the oil morons will do anything to keep such facts from the general public, knowing full well that by comparison all their fossil fuels are completely gone when burnt with the added huge problem of extra atmospheric CO2 and other pollution. Unfortunately the public has been brainwashed to the god of fossil fuels for so long now, it is a major problem to evangelise them over to the genuine and true religion of human need, our planet.

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flynfrog
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Re: China's stranglehold of electric vehicles

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autogyro wrote:
flynfrog wrote:Here is an article we may run out of batteries before we run out of oil

http://www.meridian-int-res.com/Project ... blem_2.pdf
I have just watched a video of an old Datsun electric vehicle with 'lead acid' batteries beating the quarter mile times of my old Mustang.
When I owned garages, we used to weigh in lead acid batteries that no longer held a charge to recycle the lead. The lead was still there just the same as the Lithium is in Lion batteries when they no longer hold a charge. It just needs the investment in recycling and the will to kill the ignorance and complacency.
Of course like rare earth elements, the oil morons will do anything to keep such facts from the general public, knowing full well that by comparison all their fossil fuels are completely gone when burnt with the added huge problem of extra atmospheric CO2 and other pollution. Unfortunately the public has been brainwashed to the god of fossil fuels for so long now, it is a major problem to evangelise them over to the genuine and true religion of human need, our planet.
Yes but lead was is much easier to mine and recycle than lithium is. It can be recycled as well.

PS I love that dautsun.

You sure seem to give "the oil conspiracy" a lot of credit. Did you ever think that right now oil makes the most economical sense? We didn't have to force people to give up the horse and buggies. When electric cars make sense people will start and have already started to adopt them. How do you plan to support our society without fossil fuels? None of us could afford to live in it.

autogyro
autogyro
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Re: China's stranglehold of electric vehicles

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For me the most important thing is the 'attitude' change essential for a new way of life. If I put more effort into growing food on my allotment and less in driving around wasting fuel, it is possible for me to live almost in a self sufficient way. It is different in every case. People need to recognise the potential for their own living environment and try to adapt to a better balance with the planet. How many people actualy need to travel long distances to work?
How many can work from home? How many ways can you think of to save energy in your own living space? The Town I live in is well advanced in recycling and alternate energy use. We have an electric bus for the school along with a wind turbine on the way. A local company supplying recycled oils for oil central heating, cleared for use by all the main boiler makers. We have spare land space with vegetables being grown on it and a deal being struck with a local farmer for a Town allotment field with help from the farmer. I have in the past run tractors on powdered straw, brought a pig farm onto straw fired electric generation and heating for the pig units and experimented with straw compacting as a fuel for generators to charge electric tractors and combines. Farming is a main development area IMO most large farms can easily be self sufficient on energy. They conveniently cover up how many thousands of gallons of diesel they burn to supply food at present. Think of the money they would save!!! Oh I forgot few of them can think for themselves can they.

Shrek
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Re: China's stranglehold of electric vehicles

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autogyro wrote:For me the most important thing is the 'attitude' change essential for a new way of life. If I put more effort into growing food on my allotment and less in driving around wasting fuel, it is possible for me to live almost in a self sufficient way. It is different in every case. People need to recognise the potential for their own living environment and try to adapt to a better balance with the planet. How many people actualy need to travel long distances to work?
How many can work from home? How many ways can you think of to save energy in your own living space? The Town I live in is well advanced in recycling and alternate energy use. We have an electric bus for the school along with a wind turbine on the way. A local company supplying recycled oils for oil central heating, cleared for use by all the main boiler makers. We have spare land space with vegetables being grown on it and a deal being struck with a local farmer for a Town allotment field with help from the farmer. I have in the past run tractors on powdered straw, brought a pig farm onto straw fired electric generation and heating for the pig units and experimented with straw compacting as a fuel for generators to charge electric tractors and combines. Farming is a main development area IMO most large farms can easily be self sufficient on energy. They conveniently cover up how many thousands of gallons of diesel they burn to supply food at present. Think of the money they would save!!! Oh I forgot few of them can think for themselves can they.
What about people (like me) who dont have a farm and the closest house is a Kilometer away.
Spencer