With all the technical staff changes at MGP taking place, with Costa, Bell, Willis, 2012 is starting to show some promise for Mercedes.
They have a strong technical team, key to success, as seen at Red Bull, a seemingly good budget, due to their Mercedes factory backing, and two seemingly capable drivers, who with the right car can win races.
From this the W03 is showing real promise, even though no one knows anything about it yet!
The lower nose in 2012 may favour MGP though, as they bought out Brawn GP, who ran a low nose in '09, and worked on many low nose Ferrari cars, and ran with a nose shape similar to what will be used in 2012, in 2010.
I think Mercedes could well be the dark horse of 2012.