I've been thinkin recently about Jenson's season, and in particular his decision to avoid Williams and sign with Honda. Clearly, this season isn't going as planned. The car is not quick enough, this is the fundamental problem. However, I believe that Jenson's confidence is low, no matter what himself or (the annoyingly optimistic) Nick Fry says. He's had the media, and essentially the whole sport on his back about not winning, and I feel that he's in a bit of a rut.
I feel that if he had signed perhaps a 1-year deal with Williams, he would have been in a fairly competitive car. (not on the level of Honda, I will admit) He would also have kept the positive public perception of him and his management intact, due to aversion of a controversial deal.
The next step in the plan would have been to sign for Renault for 2007. We all know Fisichella is not up to scratch. His emotions, and inferiority-complex to Alonso get in the way of him being any good. We also know that Alonso won't be there in 2007. This leaves 2 free race seats at the fastest team on the grid. Clearly there would have been a few other contenders for the seats: Montoya, Raikonnen, Kovaleinen etc. But given Jenson's previous time with the team, and also the fact that he's still considered in the top 5 drivers in F1, I think he stood a good chance.
Being at Renault for 2007-onwards would have given Jenson his best opportunity for winning races and possibly World Championships. You might say that being at Williams in 2006 wouldn't have got him any wins. But realistically, I can't see Honda winning this year.
Clearly my idea relies on Jenson knowing of Renault's long-term commitment to F1. And also on being able to negotiate a 1-year deal with Williams, while simultaneously negotiating with Renault for 2007. However, I believe Jenson would be in better stead for the future.
As it stands, I can see Jenson becoming discontented with Honda and the performance, and losing yet more confidence. He may end up getting more and more stuck in that rut.
I just hope I'm wrong!