What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

[CHT]

11 races completed, 9* more to go (subject to Austin track completing in time).

With Fernando Alonso at 164 pts, Mark Webber 124 / Sebastian Vettel 122 / Lewis Hamilton 117 / Kimi Räikkönen 116

What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

[raymondu999]

Well we have 9 races to go... and:

Mark Webber -40
Sebastian Vettel -42
Lewis Hamilton -47
Kimi Raikkonen -48

That makes an average gap to make up of:

Webber 4.44*
Vettel 4.66*
Hamilton 5.22*
Raikkonen 5.33*
*recurring

It's really still in their hands. Everyone from Rosberg on down still needs Alonso's help to win the title (ie even if they keep winning, if Alonso gets all 2nd places, then Alonso can still be champ) These guys have their destiny more in their own hands in that if they win all the remaining races - regardless of Alonso's finishing position - they will win the title.

It's a very close season, mind - so generally won't be as easy as it usually is to overhaul such deficits. Vettel pulled 31 points in 6 races (after Spa) in 2010 - but then he had a dominant car. Mind you - Alonso in 2010 (from Belgium to Korea) pulled back 41 points in 4 races, and turned it in fact to some in his favor - so he actually earned more than 41 points more over the field.

The current points system exaggerates the gap. All it would take is for Alonso to have one reliability retirement, and his contenders to finish in the top spots, and they'll be right back in the hunt. When was the last time that happened to Alonso? Does anyone remember? Is it Malaysia 2010?

The Red Bull, Lotus and McLaren were all quicker cars today, and had Turn 1 been sharper, or the last corner not as long - would have probably all finished ahead of Alonso, so it does prove that the Alonso + Ferrari package is not infallible.

AND the next race is Spa.

Ah... Spa. It will forever be one of the great mysteries of Formula One why Fernando Alonso has not fared better there. He had a 3rd in 2007, a 2nd in 2005... 4th in 2008 and 2011, and a retirement at every other Spa GP.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-brtscau3E[/youtube]


The last time he (dashing young chap that he is) got a victory there was back in 2000, in F3000 - a hattrick with pole, fastest lap and the win. Interesting little anecdote - Mark Webber was 3rd in the standings (22 points) that F3000 season... and Alonso was 4th (17 points)
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OzjUCpqjx4w[/youtube]

But I do agree it's Alonso's to lose now.

[timbo]

Well, what Alonso definitely did is a margin for error for himself. At this point he can afford a DNF and still be on top of the game. But the season is very close and Ferrari still does not have ultimate pace to be in contention for the win in all dry weekend, and many of remaining races are all-dry most of the time. OTOH, revival of McLaren and Lotus is good for him, as it is not very likely that only one driver will emerge out of the tight group behind him.
So, in his favor is a big points cusion he made for himself and the closeness between his rivals who would likely be stealing points from each other. Against him are a lot of races left, non-existent Massa and the car that still misses the edge in all-dry weekend.
All in all, the odds of loosing are still pretty high, as we're just little into the second half of the season but he is in good position.

[CHT]

I think Alonso is the only top 5 driver who hasnt suffer a DNF, and if he can maintain his form while the rest of the challengers take points away from each other, he should be able to win it.

[raymondu999]

Yes indeed. He can almost afford to start playing the percentages now - unless one driver starts really hooking performances up. Then with the McLarens, Red Bulls AND Lotuses taking points away from HIM - things get pretty nasty for him (in the points standings) quickly.

Having a margin and having competitors take points away from each other isn't really of much use if they're ALL taking points off you either.

He has 1.6 wins over Webber. I reiterate - one win for his rivals when Alonso has a bad day, or bad reliability - and that's really all he needs.

[Nando]

I think Alonso is the only top 5 driver who hasnt suffer a DNF, and if he can maintain his form while the rest of the challengers take points away from each other, he should be able to win it.

2 wins from either Lewis or Vettel and Alonso has to start worry.

He can´t relax and just focus on Webber because those two are coming and they are shortening the gap for every race.

It´s also a misconception that he´s "extending" his lead... to Webber yes but it´s getting closer to Hamilton and Vettel.
For example, yesterday Hamilton took in 15 points to Alonso.
He was only 50-60 something from him so you see it doesn´t take long to gather points.

It´s not even set in stone that the Ferrari will be up there anymore as Renault is know taking points as well.

[siskue2005]

One dnf from Alonso, They will all come closer to him

[Gerhard Berger]

He was only 50-60 something from him so you see it doesn´t take long to gather points.

It doesn't take long to gather points IF you are consistantly winning. But that is a big IF. So far this season, there doesn't appear to be a dominant car, hence any 1 driver has found it difficult to string a number of wins together.

It´s not even set in stone that the Ferrari will be up there anymore as Renault is know taking points as well.

Renault has been taking points all season. However, they only look very strong in hot conditions. It's not like their car only became competitive in Hungary.

One dnf from Alonso, They will all come closer to him

And one DNF from the chasing pack and they are really struggling to stay in the title race. It works both ways.

[timbo]

Then with the McLarens, Red Bulls AND Lotuses taking points away from HIM - things get pretty nasty for him (in the points standings) quickly.

The thing with taking points from each other is that it would be harder for everyone to get that target +4-5 point rate they need to overtake him.
But he definitely needs to be in the pack all the time. So far he had shown it can be done.

[zyphro]

Everything is in the balance IMO.

We now have: Lotus, McLaren, Red Bull and Ferrari fighting it out. That is 8 cars in total. Should Ferrari's Alonso find himself in the latter half, his lead will be crunched.

Mercedes remain a mystery, can they join the fight at the front after the summer? Doubtful, but stranger things have happened.

[SamH123]

All the money in the betting industry implies about a 55% chance that Alonso loses this championship.

[raymondu999]

Don't forget that means Alonso has 45% chance, while the 55, though daunting, is separated int 23 names.

Alonso has the easiest path at the moment, due to leading the points. But is it a done deal? Not a chance.

Ys, people can take points off each other, but he has to be in the mix for that to be of any use. If the result keeps going like Hungary where the Ferrari was hopeless, and if it's easier to overtake, then they ALL take points off him

[Gerhard Berger]

Don't forget that means Alonso has 45% chance, while the 55, though daunting, is separated int 23 names.

Alonso has the easiest path at the moment, due to leading the points. But is it a done deal? Not a chance.

Ys, people can take points off each other, but he has to be in the mix for that to be of any use. If the result keeps going like Hungary where the Ferrari was hopeless, and if it's easier to overtake, then they ALL take points off him

but who's to say it will be like Hungary in every race from now to the end of the season?

[f1316]

Well, unsurprisingly, it all comes back down to development. Ferrari are not currently fast enough and if, let's say for some reason the teams had to keep the same cars for the rest of the season, I actually don't think Alonso would win it. He's done very well to be where he is now with the car he's had, but the "strange" results are probably not going to be as frequent in the second half of the season. 2-5 (WEB, VET, HAM, RAI) in the championship might share the wins between them, but it doesn't take many 5th places for a 40 point gap to disappear with today's points.

However, Ferrari have developed extremely well this year - a reputed 3 seconds of lap time. They're still behind but a lot closer to the ultimate pace, so if this were to continue they could well find themselves in a very competitive position. What might concern the team though is that it is, perhaps, easier to fix a flaw with the car than to improve something which is already functioning as expected; they've been trying to fit various new front wings for weeks with seemingly varied results, so it may be that the old data correlation issue is resurfacing again.

This is all to some extent supposition, but I don't think for a second that the lead is insurmountable if the other cars are fundamentally quicker.

[george1981]

If Ferrari haven't got the package then as others have said there could be 8 cars ahead of Alonso each race. It only takes 2-3 races like that for a challenger to come through. What has saved Alonso so far is that no one else has been able to match his consistency.