What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

[beelsebob]

Too difficult to call to be honest, IF (massive if), he has another DNF - everything is all to play for. If he continues to score in P3-P5 positions, he'll take the title probably.

P3-P5 would still allow Hamilton to win, as all the remaining tracks (possibly bar Abu Dhabi, but even that's debatable after singapore) favour McLaren big style. But, I fully expect that Hamilton will get some more bad luck, so you could well be right.

Hamilton is 52 behind, so he needs an average 8 2/3 points more than Alonso per race, if he wins everything remaining (sounds pretty unlikely), he needs Alonso to finish at best 3rd 4 times and 2nd twice.

Despite Vettel only being 29 behind Alonso, I see Hamilton as stronger competition (still), as the RBR will not like any of the remaining tracks except Abu Dhabi. I expect the Ferrari to beat the RedBull at 5 of the remaining 6.

[CHT]

does anyone know how many new engine and gearbox are left for Alonso, Lewis and Vettel?

[Gerhard Berger]

does anyone know how many new engine and gearbox are left for Alonso, Lewis and Vettel?

Alonso and Vettel still have 2 new engines left. Hamilton has 1 new engine left:

http://www.vivaf1.com/reliability.php

Don't think any of them are marginal on engines though.

Gearbox can be replaced after it has completed a 5 race cycle. There isn't a set number of gearboxes you can use during the season.

[beelsebob]

does anyone know how many new engine and gearbox are left for Alonso, Lewis and Vettel?

Alonso and Vettel still have 2 new engines left. Hamilton has 1 new engine left:

http://www.vivaf1.com/reliability.php

Don't think any of them are marginal on engines though.

Gearbox can be replaced after it has completed a 5 race cycle. There isn't a set number of gearboxes you can use during the season.

Yep, Hamilton will have a fresh gearbox for Japan, and then again for Brazil. Engines aren't used in sequence – they're swapped in and out for higher/lower demand circuits. It's likely that Lewis's remaining fresh engine will be used at Japan.

[jdlive]

If the RB8 manages to actually finish all races, I'd say very high. Of course it's highly unlikely it will do so, who knows, it may even implode in one of the following races. Poor Sebastian [-o<

[WhiteBlue]

Decimal odds at Betfair today with a market volume of 1.2 mil GBP
Fernando Alonso 1.58
Sebastian Vettel 4.1
Lewis Hamilton 12
Kimi Räikkönen 44
Jenson Button 100
Mark Webber 95

Anything exceeding 10 is highly unlikely. So I would agree with Jenson Button that it has become a two horse race between Alonso and Vettel with an outside chance for Vettel.

[beelsebob]

Decimal odds at Betfair today with a market volume of 1.2 mil GBP
Fernando Alonso 1.58
Sebastian Vettel 4.1
Lewis Hamilton 12
Kimi Räikkönen 44
Jenson Button 100
Mark Webber 95

Anything exceeding 10 is highly unlikely. So I would agree with Jenson Button that it has become a two horse race between Alonso and Vettel with an outside chance for Vettel.

I can't possibly agree with the mass here. I much less chance of Vettel winning than of Hamilton (and almost none of him)... The reasoning (and the reasoning for the masses getting it backwards)...
Every circuit remaining bar abu dhabi is about high speed downforce. RedBull have sucked at all of the circuits like that, and McLaren have recently really come on song at them. I can't see Vettel getting many finishes above 5th from now on.

[turbof1]

Too difficult to call to be honest, IF (massive if), he has another DNF - everything is all to play for. If he continues to score in P3-P5 positions, he'll take the title probably.

P3-P5 would still allow Hamilton to win, as all the remaining tracks (possibly bar Abu Dhabi, but even that's debatable after singapore) favour McLaren big style. But, I fully expect that Hamilton will get some more bad luck, so you could well be right.

Which is perfectly possible; if McLaren don't screw anything up and bad luck doesn't hit them anymore, then we will most likely always have Hamilton and Button in front of Alonso, and likely Hamilton always at the front row. Those are the terms though:
-no screw ups
-no bad luck

[raymondu999]

Every circuit remaining bar abu dhabi is about high speed downforce. RedBull have sucked at all of the circuits like that

Not on race pace IMO. The last two sweeper downforce circuits have been Spa, Silverstone. Won at Silverstone, was P2 at Spa, and remember that Spa's S1 and S3 were just bad for Red Bull - and that they were able to finish P2 means their pace through S2 was enough to counter their S1 and S3 deficit.

Also, I'd call Brazil more mechanical than aero. Korea and Japan, in my view, aren't overly aero - there are quite a few slow corners there.

[beelsebob]

Every circuit remaining bar abu dhabi is about high speed downforce. RedBull have sucked at all of the circuits like that

Not on race pace IMO. The last two sweeper downforce circuits have been Spa, Silverstone. Won at Silverstone, was P2 at Spa, and remember that Spa's S1 and S3 were just bad for Red Bull - and that they were able to finish P2 means their pace through S2 was enough to counter their S1 and S3 deficit.

Also, I'd call Brazil more mechanical than aero. Korea and Japan, in my view, aren't overly aero - there are quite a few slow corners there.

Won in Silverstone only because the grid was fubared, You have a point about Spa, but ultimately, they were no where near the pace of McLaren there, Button just cruised to a victory.

[raymondu999]

Won in Silverstone only because the grid was fubared

How do you come to that conclusion? (I'm not saying you're wrong, just asking)

You have a point about Spa, but ultimately, they were no where near the pace of McLaren there, Button just cruised to a victory.

A large part of that IMO was battling through traffic, as well as Jenson having a clear air advantage, which obviously helped him manage the tyres and pace.

Here's a piece on how (apparently) Red Bull's clear air pace was quicker, at least on the mediums: http://intelligentf1.wordpress.com/2012 ... -analysis/

[beelsebob]

Won in Silverstone only because the grid was fubared

How do you come to that conclusion? (I'm not saying you're wrong, just asking)

Because it was clear that we didn't see the actual pace of all cars involved, as McLaren in particular went entirely the wrong way on their setup having basically had to guess.

You have a point about Spa, but ultimately, they were no where near the pace of McLaren there, Button just cruised to a victory.

A large part of that IMO was battling through traffic, as well as Jenson having a clear air advantage, which obviously helped him manage the tyres and pace.

Here's a piece on how (apparently) Red Bull's clear air pace was quicker, at least on the mediums: http://intelligentf1.wordpress.com/2012 ... -analysis/

The problem with that analysis is once again, it doesn't take into account the fact that the driver out front is just cruising. We have no clue what Button's true pace would have been if pushed. All we know is that he drived off into the distance.

[raymondu999]

The problem with that analysis is once again, it doesn't take into account the fact that the driver out front is just cruising. We have no clue what Button's true pace would have been if pushed. All we know is that he drived off into the distance.

Ack. I wasn't saying that Vettel was necessarily quicker than Button - though my wording was rubbish. I was saying that that race, the Red Bull was probably second quickest car DESPITE S1 and S3 - and so I don't think it's as clear cut as Red Bull will be rubbish in the next few races.

Another thing to consider is Vettel was the only runner in traffic to make a 1-stopper work. In my view - it's true that the McLaren probably has the advantage over Red Bull in most of the remaining circuits, in terms of pace. But I think that better tyre use could very well bring the Bulls/Loti back in the mix in the races.

[beelsebob]

The problem with that analysis is once again, it doesn't take into account the fact that the driver out front is just cruising. We have no clue what Button's true pace would have been if pushed. All we know is that he drived off into the distance.

Ack. I wasn't saying that Vettel was necessarily quicker than Button - though my wording was rubbish. I was saying that that race, the Red Bull was probably second quickest car DESPITE S1 and S3 - and so I don't think it's as clear cut as Red Bull will be rubbish in the next few races.

Another thing to consider is Vettel was the only runner in traffic to make a 1-stopper work. In my view - it's true that the McLaren probably has the advantage over Red Bull in most of the remaining circuits, in terms of pace. But I think that better tyre use could very well bring the Bulls/Loti back in the mix in the races.

I can very much see Lotus/RedBull being in the mix, but I can't see them being on the pace of the McLarens without some serious upgrades, I also think tyre wear is less of an issue for McLaren than might be thought... McLaren's latest set of upgrades really seem to have them on top of that. That all said – I'd really quite like RBR and Lotus to be up there – without them taking points from Alonso, Hamilton doesn't stand a chance.

[raymondu999]

I think in summary - nobody knows

The season is so close that anything can happen. Maybe the Lotus Double DRS brings them to dominant pace - maybe it turns out the latest McLaren updates have made them less competitive in the high speed downforce efficiency stakes (remember how Lewis wasn't able to make much time up on JB in Spa S2 with a higher downforce setup?). Maybe Ferrari introduces a mega update that makes THEM dominant. Maybe Newey regains some of his mojo and introduces the RB8 Z-spec which totally blows the field.

The season is so topsy turvy and up and down that it's hard to tell really.

But if Vettel loses the title by less than 31 points to Alonso I will really rue that Valencia alternator.