What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

[Jackuar]

My predictions in page 2 still stands for me. But now I'd give 50-50 (Instead of 65-35 back then)... The McLaren are damn fast and Ferrari and Alonso are losing it... It was almost his before Macca snatched it a bit.... Like tug-of-war.. 65% of the rope was on the Ferrari side before, and McL managed to pull something back. A high reliability is keeping Ferrari going but how long? It would have been a tiny bit easier for Alonso if not for the Spa debacle. He could have saved 3 or 4 points there.

Suzuka will be a massively important must-win for Ferrari and Redbull to keep their chances alive (Personally I wish 1.Alo 2.Vettel 3.Ham). But another runaway victory for McL and no improvements from Ferrari- and I'll say the Championship is Lewis' to lose.

[Websta]

Suzuka will be a massively important must-win for Ferrari and Redbull to keep their chances alive (Personally I wish 1.Alo 2.Vettel 3.Ham). But another runaway victory for McL and no improvements from Ferrari- and I'll say the Championship is Lewis' to lose.

Hamilton's to lose? I don't think it is that likely that Lewis will claw back the 52 point deficit in 6 races. He would have to outscore Alonso by 9 points at each round just to finish equal (more or less). If anything, Lewis is going to help Alonso win the championship if he can keep Vettel off the top step, and vice versa. Alonso just has to outscore each of them a couple of times in the remaining races and keep bringing in top 5 finishes. It is Alonso's to lose at the moment, and will be so long as he continues to consistently score double digit points.
Edit: quote added

[myurr]

If McLaren can execute these final six races flawlessly then their car has the pace to have a shot at the title. They should be in the hunt for the win at all six venues, and they easily have the most consistently quick car at the moment. It's blisteringly quick in qualifying and more often than not is having good enough tyre life in the races with performance in hand if they are ever pushed.

However asking any formula one team to execute six flawless races in a row is a huge ask, even with Ferrari's track record this year you wouldn't want to put money on them not making a single mistake, or having anything go wrong with the car, or not having any on track incidents, for all of the next six races.

I think it likely that Hamilton will edge Vettel for points by the end of the season, but unless Alonso has a problem race or two he's not going to have the luck to overcome that point lead. Vettel has the better shot but again needs a flawless run of luck for the next few races and that makes it unlikely.

But all that said depending on how the luck is dished out any of those three have a shot at the title. With the way they've been driving though I really hope that it's either Hamilton or Alonso who take it - Alonso has been driving incredibly well and has made sure he's always managed to get the most points his car will let him; Hamilton should have won this championship based on his raw pace and the pace of his car, but has been let down numerous times by his team. I'm not a fan of Vettel's at all, so I could be being too hard on him, but I just don't think he's performed that well this year. He's had a couple of strong drives but has also had numerous anonymous drives where he's scored some points but not really outperformed his car or made an impression on the field. To me he's best of the rest but a step below Hamilton and Alonso, especially without the blown diffuser.

[CHT]

I really pity alonso's position at the moment. It is as if he is like a fat sitting duck waiting for be tear apart my Mclaren and RBR. i hope ferrari will at least bring some upgrade for F2012 to give Alonso a chance to be on the offensive.

[Cuky]

I think that it is now 100% that Alonso will loose the title this season

http://www.formula1.com/news/interviews ... 13843.html

Niki Lauda has said that Alonso will win it, and we all know how things always come out counter of what he predicts

[myurr]

I wouldn't say that the RBR car is any better than the Ferrari at this point. The advantage ebbs and flows between the two. The slower the circuit the more likely RB will be up there. Mid to high speed circuits and Ferrari will be a little stronger.

The McLaren is the only car you can pretty much count on challenging at the front of each of the remaining GPs, yet that is where Alonso has the biggest points advantage.

It's still Alonso's to lose but he could certainly do with Ferrari bringing some more pace to that car.

[astracrazy]

I want a DNF from Alonso at the next race, and its going to be a completely different story. Vettel wins, thats 4 points. Hamilton wins that 27. And with the form of Mclaren and Hamilton 27 points over 5 races - Alonso has a problem.

[mcalex]

Correction - Kimi wins ...

[adam2003]

I want a DNF from Alonso at the next race, and its going to be a completely different story. Vettel wins, thats 4 points. Hamilton wins that 27. And with the form of Mclaren and Hamilton 27 points over 5 races - Alonso has a problem.

U can only wish Ferrari will bounce back

[Nathan]

Correction - Kimi wins ...

Can you imagine his reaction?

Q. Kimi, you came out of nowhere in the championship, to steal it right under the noses of your competitors in your first year back in Formula 1! How does it feel?

A. Yeah, it's good.

[radosav]

Q. Kimi, you came out of nowhere in the championship, to steal it right under the noses of your competitors in your first year back in Formula 1! How does it feel?

A. Ahh, i don't know.

[CHT]

Alonso must be having nightmares that it will be 2010 all over again.

[Jackuar]

Suzuka will be a massively important must-win for Ferrari and Redbull to keep their chances alive (Personally I wish 1.Alo 2.Vettel 3.Ham). But another runaway victory for McL and no improvements from Ferrari- and I'll say the Championship is Lewis' to lose.

Hamilton's to lose? I don't think it is that likely that Lewis will claw back the 52 point deficit in 6 races. He would have to outscore Alonso by 9 points at each round just to finish equal (more or less). If anything, Lewis is going to help Alonso win the championship if he can keep Vettel off the top step, and vice versa. Alonso just has to outscore each of them a couple of times in the remaining races and keep bringing in top 5 finishes. It is Alonso's to lose at the moment, and will be so long as he continues to consistently score double digit points.
Edit: quote added

Probably, terming it as Lewis' to lose is a bit far.. I take it back.. How about calling it "Hamilton to blame from here on for not pushing it to the wire"? I understand 52 in 9 races is too much but again I said that under a "IF".. If Lewis can runaway in Suzuka, Button standing between him and Alo and with no improvements from Ferrari, it should be do-able. Do-able, I say, not given. But can they do it? We gotta wait and watch.

[ajdavison2]

Well 1 retirement and a poor race for vettel with a 1-2-3 ham-raik-but would even things up pretty well

[jdlive]

[...]
The Mclaren is by far the best car this season and it has been at every single race weekend, period. Is it so hard to admit Hamilton is failing yet again?