What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

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RB7ate9
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Re: What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

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Nando wrote:
jdlive wrote:Every domination period in F1 has been in dominant cars since at least the last 30y. Why do we never hear this argument used for Senna and only for Schumacher and Vettel?
First of all, that first sentence makes no sense whatsoever.

Second of all, neither does the second sentence.
Senna isn't listed in the ages of "dominant" cars because it was clear his skill transcended the car. From Toleman, to Lotus, to Mclaren, to Williams, his skill shone through, sometimes despite the car (i.e. Williams not being allowed their active suspension).

Schumacher won with Benneton, and then destroyed the field with Ferrari. Vettel won with Toro Rosso, and then won with Red Bull twice.

That is why senna is always regarded as one of - if not the - best. He did amazing things in every machine he was asked to drive, even as what advantage his cars had began to fade - or his car never had an advantage to begin with.

If Alonso can put more of his weight into car development to make 00's era Ferrari dominance, then we'll get to consider Alonso a grand champion.

Considering we're talking about the odds of him losing the WDC and how the f2012 was a dog earlier this season, taking a direct role in the car's design may be the next vital step for Ferrari red topping all the sheets.

Edited to highlight further Senna qualities.

Lca1443
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Re: What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

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I think that Alonso's WDC chances increased with Hamilton's signing.

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raymondu999
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Re: What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

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Really? I'd argue they decreased - now McLaren has no incentive to back Hamilton as an undisputed number one.
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Nando
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Re: What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

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raymondu999 wrote:Really? I'd argue they decreased - now McLaren has no incentive to back Hamilton as an undisputed number one.
That would be an increased chance for Alonso winning the title..

But if we think objectively here, Mclaren wants another championship, they can still win both if they push these last races.
IT´s a win/win situation and it would be downright stupid to handicap a driver on the sole reason he´s leaving next year.

Same same as before the news. Small chance for Hamilton but doable.
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Dragonfly
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Re: What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

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In view of latest developments and events I think Alonso's chances are higher and he won't miss the opportunity.
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Jackuar
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Re: What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

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Dragonfly wrote:In view of latest developments and events I think Alonso's chances are higher and he won't miss the opportunity.
What developments and events? That is leading to an increased chance?
Finishing second is being the first one of losers....

Nando
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Re: What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

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Jackuar wrote:
Dragonfly wrote:In view of latest developments and events I think Alonso's chances are higher and he won't miss the opportunity.
What developments and events? That is leading to an increased chance?
The thought seems to be that Mclaren will handicap Hamilton because he´s moving to another team...yes i know...i´m with you.
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raymondu999
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Re: What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

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Nando wrote:
Jackuar wrote:
Dragonfly wrote:In view of latest developments and events I think Alonso's chances are higher and he won't miss the opportunity.
What developments and events? That is leading to an increased chance?
The thought seems to be that Mclaren will handicap Hamilton because he´s moving to another team...yes i know...i´m with you.
I personally don't think McLaren will now handicap him - but I think that now, they won't handicap Button FOR him.
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Nando
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Re: What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

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raymondu999 wrote:I personally don't think McLaren will now handicap him - but I think that now, they won't handicap Button FOR him.
Why in the world would they handicap any driver? That´s counter productive...

Button has already said he understand the situation and that Martin does not have to worry, Button will know what to do.
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SamH123
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Re: What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

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Miguel wrote:At the risk of deriding this Vettel-Hamilton debate back on topic, my gut feeling says Alonso has about 60% chance, Vettel 30%, Hamilton 10% and the rest is marginal. I think that translates to decimal odds aas 1:1.67, 1:3.33 and 1:10, give or take.
If you didn't check the bookmakers odds you've done a really great job with your estimates.

I reckon Hamilton is fav to beat Vettel this season, Alonso wins with no DNFs from now but loses to Hamilton with one or more.

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raymondu999
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Re: What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

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Nando wrote:
raymondu999 wrote:I personally don't think McLaren will now handicap him - but I think that now, they won't handicap Button FOR him.
Why in the world would they handicap any driver? That´s counter productive...

Button has already said he understand the situation and that Martin does not have to worry, Button will know what to do.
indicating he will potentially handicap himself - if Button is in P1 and Hamilton in P2, then he would probably have swapped. But now in my view there isn't really much incentive for McLaren to do so.
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Nando
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Re: What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

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raymondu999 wrote:
Nando wrote:
raymondu999 wrote:I personally don't think McLaren will now handicap him - but I think that now, they won't handicap Button FOR him.
Why in the world would they handicap any driver? That´s counter productive...

Button has already said he understand the situation and that Martin does not have to worry, Button will know what to do.
indicating he will potentially handicap himself - if Button is in P1 and Hamilton in P2, then he would probably have swapped. But now in my view there isn't really much incentive for McLaren to do so.
why not? They still want to win titles and to maximize the points in terms of WDC and WCC it would be best for Button to let Hamilton past.
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raymondu999
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Re: What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

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Nando wrote:why not? They still want to win titles and to maximize the points in terms of WDC and WCC it would be best for Button to let Hamilton past.
Because in my view the primary benefits of winning the WDC go away. Sure you have the prestige - but that's about it. They wouldn't even carry the number 1 anymore - and all the marketability the reigning world champion would bring.

I know that the team will toe the politically correct line of "of course not - we'll push hard to still get him the title" - but in a more cynical view, I don't think so, to be honest. Especially since we saw Ron Dennis not looking happy at all even after Lewis's win - I think relations have broken down between him and Lewis, and so he could even be the one to tell the team not to favor Lewis.

I'm not saying that they'll STOP him being world champ. I'm just saying they'll keep the status quo as 2 equally-treated drivers. If Lewis wins the 2012 title then... yay. If Lewis doesn't then... "oh well. He's moving anyways"

I also think Lewis' feedback will be slightly more ignored now in terms of car development, and maybe the juicier updates might not even make it to his car for these last 6 flyaways, so that he can't bring any real new knowledge to Mercedes.

This is all my opinion - and of course you are entitled to your own. But I still think this is what will happen. I could be wrong, and very equally you could be wrong. Time will tell.
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Nando
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Re: What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

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Makes absolutely zero sense to me but to each his own i guess..
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raymondu999
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Re: What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

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Nando wrote:Makes absolutely zero sense to me but to each his own i guess..
It might. Yours sounds like wishful thinking to me. But to each his own.
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