What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

[Nando]

Anything can happen,

We said that for Hamilton to beat Alonso he can do it if he wins every race and Alonso finishes second, that would be a deficit of 7 points per race.

Today he took 10, so regardless of where Vettel is right now, Alonso is still the target and he have gained a similar point deficit to what a win/third place would give.

After Korea we can take another look at the situation, perhaps Vettel DNF´s, Alonso wins, or Hamilton is the only one left on track, we´ll have to see

[raymondu999]

We said that for Hamilton to beat Alonso he can do it if he wins every race and Alonso finishes second, that would be a deficit of 7 points per race.

7/race for Hamilton is 35, as we have 5 races left. He's 42 behind Alonso. He needs to get 8.6 points more than Alonso on average (to beat Alonso by 1 point)

[jdlive]

"Vettel has a better car than Hamilton now" ROFL

It's always the car that is bad for Hamilton, and good for Vettel, always

[Raptor22]

the ongoing debate. Is it Newey or is it the driver.

I'm in the camp that in the case of Vettel RedBUll its the combo. Newey has preoduced great cars driven by people who simply refused to extract the best out of it most of the time and found themselves beaten by a better driver in a slower car.
Hamilton as own goaled himself a few times andMcLaren has not helped.
McLaren started the year well, RedBull not so well. it took them a while to get to understand their car.
Which combo is best? Depends who wins the WDC. Which car is best? Well which one is going to to win the WCC?

[Nando]

We said that for Hamilton to beat Alonso he can do it if he wins every race and Alonso finishes second, that would be a deficit of 7 points per race.

7/race for Hamilton is 35, as we have 5 races left. He's 42 behind Alonso. He needs to get 8.6 points more than Alonso on average (to beat Alonso by 1 point)

Hmm must have been before Singpapore i counted this because im positive we talked about he having to win every race and even if Alonso finishes 2nd he would still beat him by some points.

Anyway my mistake,

280p - If Vettel comes 2nd every race
277p - If Hamilton wins every race
269p - If Alonso comes third every race

One DNF from either Vettel or Alonso will change everything. I´m not hoping anyone gets one but i think for Hamilton´s sake, that´s what he "needs".

[Nando]

the problem haven´t been Mclaren´s drivers but rather Mclaren themselves.

They have shot themselves in the foot so many times this year it´s not even funny.
Red Bull on the other hand, if they get a quick car for the weekend they will take home the points.

Red Bull is unquestionable a MUCH better TEAM then Mclaren.

[WhiteBlue]

Vettel has a better car than Hamilton now

I think this race was more a fluke on Mclaren´s side rather then RBR having found a big chunk of pace.

I beg to differ. Most technical observers seem to agree that Red Bull found 0.5 s with the DDRS blown beam wing and diffusor. That is serious time and it is open to speculation how fast Ferrari and McLaren can copy that system.

[raymondu999]

280p - If Vettel comes 2nd every race
277p - If Hamilton wins every race
269p - If Alonso comes third every race

Those are three MASSIVE ifs...

One DNF from either Vettel or Alonso will change everything.

Yes, but that's the name of the game in F1 - you never know. One DNF from Hamilton will also change everything for him. Heck if he has that DNF, then even Button (with his mid-season rubbish form) could even outscore Lewis for the second year running.

I myself have a betting slip which I purchased at the start of the year at something like 3/1 for Hamilton bagging the WDC - which those who read the beginning pages of the 2012 Canadian GP thread would know - but sadly I don't think that'll pay me out any money.

[example]

Singapore really costed Lewis.

[beelsebob]

"Vettel has a better car than Hamilton now" ROFL

It's always the car that is bad for Hamilton, and good for Vettel, always

Is it? If you scroll back in the discussion you'll see me comment that the McLaren was the clear best car up until singapore, but after hungary...

[beelsebob]

Singapore really costed Lewis.

What you mean is, all the problems mechanical failures and team idiocy up to this point have really cost lewis – he's lost about 140 points this season through no fault of his own.

[example]

Singapore really costed Lewis.

What you mean is, all the problems mechanical failures and team idiocy up to this point have really cost lewis – he's lost about 140 points this season through no fault of his own.

Yes, but in Singapore they finally destroyed him.

[raymondu999]

Singapore really costed Lewis.

What you mean is, all the problems mechanical failures and team idiocy up to this point have really cost lewis – he's lost about 140 points this season through no fault of his own.

This is not an exact art, but food for thought: viewtopic.php?f=1&t=13372

[Mika1]

McLaren failed to exploit the full potential of the car, not Lewis Hamilton.

[astracrazy]

I still think its up in the air. 4 races ago, Vettel was 42 points off Alonso.

i can't wait to see what the championship it looking like in 3 races time.

I still wouldn't right of Hamilton, although at the moment the momentum is with Vettel and i guess it is his to lose now.