What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

[RB7ate9]

Based on the compounds used for the rest of the season and winners at races with those compounds (listed with races)

India: Hard/Soft
- Maldonaldo (Spain)
- Webber (Great Britain)
- Vettel (Japan)

Abu Dhabi: Medium/Soft
- Button (Australia)
- Rosberg (China)
- Vettel (Bahrain)
- Alonso (Europe - Valencia)
- Alonso (Germany - Hockenheim)
- Hamilton (Hungary)

United States/Brazil : Hard/Medium
- Alonso (Malaysia)
- Button (Belgium)
- Hamilton (Italy)

Take it as you will. Bear in mind DNFs and crashes.

[raymondu999]

Thanks RB7ate9 - that's a better readable summary now. Bear in mind the dry tyres were barely used in Malaysia...

Here's another fashion:

Button has won on hard, medium and soft
Alonso has won on medium and soft (he never put the hard tyre on in Malaysia)
Vettel has won on hard, medium, soft and supersoft
Webber has won on hard, soft and supersoft
Hamilton has won on hard, medium, soft and supersoft

Rosberg has won on medium and soft
Maldonado has won on hard and soft

[Gerhard Berger]

It was always said that if anyone became dominant and strung together a number of wins then it would be a problem for Alonso, and that is exactly what is happening. However, after the summer break, most people thought it would be Hamilton stringing the wins together (I imagine most fellow Ferrari fans had a cheeky grin when Hamilton retired in Singapore).

[CHT]

It was always said that if anyone became dominant and strung together a number of wins then it would be a problem for Alonso, and that is exactly what is happening. However, after the summer break, most people thought it would be Hamilton stringing the wins together (I imagine most fellow Ferrari fans had a cheeky grin when Hamilton retired in Singapore).

After this race vettel could technically win the Wdc in Texas. Now that webber is out of the equation RBR will definitely aim to nail it in Texas.

Great race by Alonso.

[WhiteBlue]

Mathematically Webber is not out. There are 75 points up for grabs and he is 73 behind. It is extremely unlikely but the Aussie is not known to give up before it is over. On the other hand I reckon he will help Vettel if there is a compelling situation. He is just not as submissive as the Ferrari #2 driver.

The odds are now:
Vettel 1.23 = 81%
Alonso 5.3 = 19%

Everybody else on 1000.

[Gerhard Berger]

It was always said that if anyone became dominant and strung together a number of wins then it would be a problem for Alonso, and that is exactly what is happening. However, after the summer break, most people thought it would be Hamilton stringing the wins together (I imagine most fellow Ferrari fans had a cheeky grin when Hamilton retired in Singapore).

After this race vettel could technically win the Wdc in Texas. Now that webber is out of the equation RBR will definitely aim to nail it in Texas.

Great race by Alonso.

Not only technically but realistically. If he wins the next 2, then it is over no matter where Alonso finishes.

[Gerhard Berger]

Mathematically Webber is not out. There are 75 points up for grabs and he is 73 behind. It is extremely unlikely but the Aussie is not known to give up before it is over. On the other hand I reckon he will help Vettel if there is a compelling situation. He is just not as submissive as the Ferrari #2 driver.

The odds are now:
Vettel 1.23 = 81%
Alonso 5.3 = 19%

Everybody else on 1000.

You just can't help yourself can you.

[CHT]

It was always said that if anyone became dominant and strung together a number of wins then it would be a problem for Alonso, and that is exactly what is happening. However, after the summer break, most people thought it would be Hamilton stringing the wins together (I imagine most fellow Ferrari fans had a cheeky grin when Hamilton retired in Singapore).

After this race vettel could technically win the Wdc in Texas. Now that webber is out of the equation RBR will definitely aim to nail it in Texas.

Great race by Alonso.

Not only technically but realistically. If he wins the next 2, then it is over no matter where Alonso finishes.

To win the Wdc at a brand new track will be awesome for vettel. What about the odds for wcc? In the bag if thy finish 1-2?

[raymondu999]

Well RBR have a 91 point lead, and after the next race, there is only 86 on offer. If Ferrari doesn't outscore Red Bull by at least 6 points next race, then Red Bull wins the WCC in Abu Dhabi

[LionKing]

Mathematically Webber is not out. There are 75 points up for grabs and he is 73 behind. It is extremely unlikely but the Aussie is not known to give up before it is over. On the other hand I reckon he will help Vettel if there is a compelling situation. He is just not as submissive as the Ferrari #2 driver.

The odds are now:
Vettel 1.23 = 81%
Alonso 5.3 = 19%

Everybody else on 1000.

Everybody else? Only Kimi is in bare contention.

Maybe 1000 is the for the odds of both Alonso and Vettel being disqualified from the championship

My bad! Webber has also a chance.... Even Lewis on count back of wins.

[AnthonyG]

Webber doesn't have a chance, he's wingmanning Vettel. (cfr the start today)

Alonso is way too cocky about it, he know's his car will be magicly faster than the Red Bull's in the upcomming races. Saterday he expected to be more forward and win. He knew he'd be fast today.

[Gerhard Berger]

Also it is important to note that if Vettel outscores Alonso by even 1 point, then it will be out of Alonso hands.

[raymondu999]

1 point more than Alonso, you mean.

[shelly]

Alonso is way too cocky about it, he know's his car will be magicly faster than the Red Bull's in the upcomming races. Saterday he expected to be more forward and win. He knew he'd be fast today.

Interesting pov. Could you please expand? You mean that alonso trusts developments or that he knows that his car race pace is better than quali or other?

[AnthonyG]

Alonso is way too cocky about it, he know's his car will be magicly faster than the Red Bull's in the upcomming races. Saterday he expected to be more forward and win. He knew he'd be fast today.

Interesting pov. Could you please expand? You mean that alonso trusts developments or that he knows that his car race pace is better than quali or other?

He knows/thinks his car will be faster (due to developments, unlocking them, bringin in new ones or track circumstances).

He made a bold statement this weekend that he'll win the championship, you don't say that if you don't believe your car will be able to match Red Bull.
Last year (or 2 years ago?) he said something about X podiums will give me the championship. And in fact his prediction was right. (not that he won, but the podiums, and it wasn't an unrealistic prediction)