What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

[FoxHound]

My conclusion is that any claims that Red Bull has been better than Ferrari over the whole season, are still based on pure speculation. There is no way we can tell if Alonso would have taken more or less points than Vettel if he had been sitting in a Red Bull this year. By the way, there is no way to tell if Vettel is faster than Alonso over one lap or not as well. I am quite sure that Red Bull has been better than Ferrari for the last few races. But then we have also seen that Vettel has won the last few races, so his performance has been impeccable. Claims that Vettel is helpless without the fastest car simply seems a bit dumb after this season. Vettel had a puncture in Malysia which dropped him from 4th to 11th. Then his car broke down in Valencia and Italy. Apart from that he has never finished worse than 6th. Vettel only has one 6th place and two 5th places this year. The rest of the races he has finished in the top 4. And if you look at Webber's results and Webber's speed, it is obvious that Red Bull has had far from the best car in several races.

I disagree with this.

Webber has won twice this year, Massa? 0
Webber results show that when he doesn't have issues, like penalties, punctures or some such incident, he finishes well in the points.
4, 4, 4, 4, 11(penalty) 1, 7, 4, 1, 8, 8, 6, 20†, 11(penalty), 9, 2, 3.

A couple of poor races, but we can always haul out Massa's record to show that his pony wasn't playing ball either.

The Red Bull is plain faster than the Ferrari. It hasn't always been, but for longer periods of time it has been the car that can win the most points particularly over the last 4 races.
No driver has enjoyed complete control in 4 races this years, let alone 4 races back to back....not one other than Vettel.
That's 100 points on the board.

If people want to apportion praise to Vettel, good luck to them. My praise is reserved for the Red Bull design team.
No harm no foul.

You just got to ask yourself, where was Vettel prior to these last 4 races in a car that was comparable to the Ferrari?
Behind Alonso.
Where is he now that the car has become supreme once more?
Ahead of Alonso.

You still need to bag the wins at the end of the day, and Vettel does that with aplomb. But there is good reason why people are lauding Alonso.
But this does nothing to dispel the feeling that Vettel needs a dominant machine to win championships.
In much the same way I rate Schumacher's 2 Bennneton WDCs as worth more than the 5 he got given(cough cough) at Ferrari.

[jdlive]

This tells me nothing...

Results tell you nothing?

Results tell me a Ferrari driver is 2nd in the championship, therefore that Ferrari isn't bad... at all. The best car on Sunday (where it matters) for the majority of the season.

[jdlive]

This tells me nothing, Alonso and Massa aren't fast qualifiers, Webber and Vettel are. RB goes for a pure qualifying setup, Ferrari doesn't.

Red Bull had only 1 retirement?!

Funny that this "pure qualifying set up" has resulted in more victories, podiums and more fastest laps for Red Bull. Why on earth don't Ferrari try this wonderous "pure qualifying set up" you speak of?
Officially yes, Red Bull have only 1 retirement, as they where classified as finishers in Italy.

Being able to drive in clean air has it's advantages Even the fastest laps, being able to drive in front, not degrading tyres as much, allows Vettel to pull out those fastest laps later on in races. He has it much easier to preserve his tyres. That's all thanks to RB's qualifying oriented tactic though.

Why Ferrari don't try it, I'd assume because 1) their car isn't built for that purpose, 2) neither Alonso nor Massa are fast qualifiers so it wouldn't make as much sense as it does for Red Bull which does have 2 fast qualifiers. There may be other reasons but I think these are the main two.

[FoxHound]

@JDlive

Your assessment seem to plucked from thin air, if you don't mind me saying. Red Bull have had a car capable of achieving better results than the Ferrari car, for the duration of the season.
These are facts I have given you. More wins, more poles, more fastest laps than the Ferrari. All of which are indicative of a faster car.
Now had Alonso achieved the same wins and the same poles and the same fastest laps as Vettel up to this point in the season, I would concur that the cars would be evenly matched.
However this is not the case.

Like I said, I'm not trying to big up Alonso or denigrate Vettel. They are 2 fine drivers, but for my dollar Alonso is by some margin the driver of 2012.

[jdlive]

@JDlive

Your assessment seem to plucked from thin air, if you don't mind me saying. Red Bull have had a car capable of achieving better results than the Ferrari car, for the duration of the season.
These are facts I have given you. More wins, more poles, more fastest laps than the Ferrari. All of which are indicative of a faster car.
Now had Alonso achieved the same wins and the same poles and the same fastest laps as Vettel up to this point in the season, I would concur that the cars would be evenly matched.
However this is not the case.

Like I said, I'm not trying to big up Alonso or denigrate Vettel. They are 2 fine drivers, but for my dollar Alonso is by some margin the driver of 2012.

More poles would be indicative of a faster car on Saturday and/or a better qualifier in Vettel. That is correct.

More wins, more podiums, more fastest laps has to do more with being able to start more up front on Sunday, than with actual car speed on Sunday. Because that Ferrari has been the fastest Sunday-car over the course of the entire season. It's just that they always had to start further back and had to take all the disadvantages that brings.

[FoxHound]

Because that Ferrari has been the fastest Sunday-car over the course of the entire season.

Don't say it...prove it!

I'll be waiting

[Stradivarius]

I disagree with this.

Webber has won twice this year, Massa? 0
Webber results show that when he doesn't have issues, like penalties, punctures or some such incident, he finishes well in the points.
4, 4, 4, 4, 11(penalty) 1, 7, 4, 1, 8, 8, 6, 20†, 11(penalty), 9, 2, 3.

A couple of poor races, but we can always haul out Massa's record to show that his pony wasn't playing ball either.

Again, there is this implicit assumption that Webber and Massa are equally good drivers. This is not necessarily true. In fact, Webber signed his contract for 2013 a long time ago, while Massa didn't get his contract renewed until very recently, simply because he hasn't performed. If this lack of performance was due to the car, why was Massa criticized? If you instead compare Webbers results to those of Alonso, you'll get the oposite picture: Alonso has better results, thus his car has been better.

The Red Bull is plain faster than the Ferrari. It hasn't always been, but for longer periods of time it has been the car that can win the most points particularly over the last 4 races.
No driver has enjoyed complete control in 4 races this years, let alone 4 races back to back....not one other than Vettel.
That's 100 points on the board.

Ok, let's talk about the last 4 races and use your own argument: Webber has scored 35 points in the last 4 races, while Massa has scored 42 points in the last 4 races. Thus, the Ferrari has been better than the Red Bull over the last 4 races, according to your own logic. In the same 4 races, Vettel has scored 100 points to Alonso's 48 points. To summarize: With a better car (a fact demonstrated by Webber's and Massa's results), Alonso has scored less than half the points of Vettel during the last 4 races. You may very well have objections to this argument, but you should then also object to your own "evidence" on car performance.

[FoxHound]

Again, there is this implicit assumption that Webber and Massa are equally good drivers. This is not necessarily true. In fact, Webber signed his contract for 2013 a long time ago, while Massa didn't get his contract renewed until very recently, simply because he hasn't performed. If this lack of performance was due to the car, why was Massa criticized? If you instead compare Webbers results to those of Alonso, you'll get the oposite picture: Alonso has better results, thus his car has been better.

Let's compare Vettel with Massa in that instance? How much better is the Red Bull in this case?
I'm not trying to argue for the sake of it, but if someone is going to post and say the Ferrari has been better than the Red Bull, I'm going to disagree on a very basic level.
We cannot compare how good Massa is in relation to Webber, and to try compare would be foolish as we have no common denominators other than they are De facto number 2 drivers and ride on the same rubber.

which leads me to your next point

Ok, let's talk about the last 4 races and use your own argument: Webber has scored 35 points in the last 4 races, while Massa has scored 42 points in the last 4 races.

Punted from behind in Japan, having qualified second, and in Singapore, his strategy was good, but ruined by a safety car from the Schumacher/Vergne crash. Not to mention a KERS issue which robbed him of more points in India. There's 3 of the last 4 right there.....

Thus, the Ferrari has been better than the Red Bull over the last 4 races, according to your own logic.

My logic is sound, it is your comparison that is lacking. Webber was still quicker than Massa, and was on average around 0.6 seconds quicker in qualifying. Misfortune does not make a car slower, it is still a fast car.

To summarize: With a better car (a fact demonstrated by Webber's and Massa's results), Alonso has scored less than half the points of Vettel during the last 4 races. You may very well have objections to this argument, but you should then also object to your own "evidence" on car performance.

Well we know this not to be the case from the evidence I have quite emphatically presented to you. Apologies if that sounds abrupt, it is not my intention.

When Red Bulls "no2" driver is 0.6 seconds on average to the "no2" ferrari driver( I was being very kind on Massa by only by excluding Webbers Q3 times where massa missed the cut), and said Red Bull "no2" driver is also 0.5 tenths up over the last 4 races on Alonso, you see that Red Bull, not only in results, but also in timings has the measure of everything out there.

This is only the last 4 races mind you, and it is qualifying. But if we look at the race figures, you see that Red Bull have also got the measure of anything else out there. Faster stints, longer tyre life(although not always).
So when I watch Qualfying and the race, and I see Red Bull disappear with no one able to answer(last 4 races specifically), I wonder what has changed so drastically that now Vettel looks world class once again whereas before, Alonso had him in his pocket.

The car, of course.

[CHT]

FoxHound, in order to prove your driver and car performance comparison method is sound, you will have to apply the same comparison method to other drivers and team to see if the outcome is consistence and its not bias.

Let say between Force India vs Sauber, and Nico vs Di Resta, or Perez vs Kobayashi

[raymondu999]

FoxHound - you're taking Stradivarius here way too specifically.

He's not actually making those comparisons - but he's just using them as examples to point out that if you can't compare 2 drivers - eg. Massa v Webber, then you can't compare their cars based on their results in each car.

[FoxHound]

@CHT

There is not really much to add. Anyone who posts that the Ferrari is a faster car over the course of the season should provide hard evidence to support this view. Otherwise it is all pie in the sky in manner of speaking.

Note that, with my comparisons I am pointing to the machines and what they are capable of over a the course of the season thus far.
It started off as one of the most competitive seasons in living memory, if you recall? 7 winners in 7 races. With this sort of competitiveness, any car capable of stringing 4 race victories in a row particularly the business end of the season is going to be a massive boost regardless of the driver.
Again, I would like to reiterate that I have no vested interest in either Vettel or Alonso. For me it is immaterial who wins, so long as we get to see an almighty fight to the end.

I will point out once more, that prior to this 4 win streak that has seen Vettel usurp Alonso in the standings, Vettel was 39 points adrift of Alonso, in cars that could be deemed fairly equal. Not only this, but Webber was just 8 points off Vettel.
The turnaround over the course of 4 races has been down to the car, not the driver.

This will of course upset Vettel aficionados, but that is the very real reality.

13 races he scores 139 points, and 4 races he bangs in 100 points. If he wins in Abu Dhabi, he will have near achieved in 5 races what he could do in 13.
Or are the Vettel aficionados going to say that Red Bull added extra doses of taurine so as he could pull his "finger" out?

C'mon!

There are bigger forces at play here than Vettel simply turning up.

[turbof1]

There is not really much to add. Anyone who posts that the Ferrari is a faster car over the course of the season should provide hard evidence to support this view. Otherwise it is all pie in the sky in manner of speaking.

But he isn't posting that all. The only thing he questions is your logic of comparing different drivers of different teams. I totally agree with you that the red bull is faster, no question about that, but comparing massa to webber and based on that observation concluding the red bull is faster is false proof to prove the right claim. It is like using a pizzabox to proof my cat stole my cheeseburger. I am not able to do so, but I know the little wh*nker did so anyhow.

[raymondu999]

You actually bring up an interesting point. Vettel has, generally - performed better in the post-European season than he has in the European season. It happened in 2009 and 2010 too actually. 2011... well he kicked ass everywhere in 2011 so I'll leave that out.

But 2010, for example - he had a naff (by his standards) European midseason, and started really banging the results in in the last few races. It's a trend which generally starts at Monza, which ends the European season anyways. He seems to click better with the end-of-season Tilke circuits, plus Monza.

For example, in 2010 - he was making a bit of a hash out of the European season, culminating in his spectacular acrobatic display of being able to drift into the bus stop chicane and T-bone Jenson Button despite travelling in a straight line

But then since Monza 2010 - Abu Dhabi 2010, he was faultless, except for an outlap that was too quick in Q3 Singapore. So there is perhaps at least some credence to this.

[Raptor22]

@CHT

There is not really much to add. Anyone who posts that the Ferrari is a faster car over the course of the season should provide hard evidence to support this view. Otherwise it is all pie in the sky in manner of speaking.

Note that, with my comparisons I am pointing to the machines and what they are capable of over a the course of the season thus far.
It started off as one of the most competitive seasons in living memory, if you recall? 7 winners in 7 races. With this sort of competitiveness, any car capable of stringing 4 race victories in a row particularly the business end of the season is going to be a massive boost regardless of the driver.
Again, I would like to reiterate that I have no vested interest in either Vettel or Alonso. For me it is immaterial who wins, so long as we get to see an almighty fight to the end.

I will point out once more, that prior to this 4 win streak that has seen Vettel usurp Alonso in the standings, Vettel was 39 points adrift of Alonso, in cars that could be deemed fairly equal. Not only this, but Webber was just 8 points off Vettel.
The turnaround over the course of 4 races has been down to the car, not the driver.

This will of course upset Vettel aficionados, but that is the very real reality.

13 races he scores 139 points, and 4 races he bangs in 100 points. If he wins in Abu Dhabi, he will have near achieved in 5 races what he could do in 13.
Or are the Vettel aficionados going to say that Red Bull added extra doses of taurine so as he could pull his "finger" out?

C'mon!

There are bigger forces at play here than Vettel simply turning up.

well if it wins the championship its the fastest car over the whole season isn't it.....?
You can't get more logical than that but you will no doubr skew pure logic with conjecture and personal opinion.

[siskue2005]

The turnaround over the course of 4 races has been down to the car, not the driver.

This will of course upset Vettel aficionados, but that is the very real reality.

13 races he scores 139 points, and 4 races he bangs in 100 points. If he wins in Abu Dhabi, he will have near achieved in 5 races what he could do in 13.
Or are the Vettel aficionados going to say that Red Bull added extra doses of taurine so as he could pull his "finger" out?

C'mon!

There are bigger forces at play here than Vettel simply turning up.

So what Alonso scored 111 points in 6 races from Spanish go to German gp
In the meantime Vettel only scored 57 points which included dnf from the lead
Up until Spanish gp Alonso had 43 points to vettels 53

The turnaround over the course of 6 races has been down to the car, not the driver.

This will of course upset Alonso aficionados, but that is the very real reality

4 races he scores 43 points, and then 6 races he bangs in 111 points. Were as vettel could only score 50 points in that time
Or are the Alonso aficionados going to say that Ferrari added extra doses of tantrumazol syrup so as he could whine like a 12 yr old again?
C'mon!

There are bigger forces at play here than Alonso simply turning up.

What? The wheel can turn both ways!
Mid soon Ferrari had the better car and the end of the season RBR has it
The difference here is Vettel is like Schumy if he gets a competitive car no one can stop him, if Alonso couldn't maximise he good car mid season and score like vettel is doing now, then it is his and his teams problem

So Alonso aficionados stop whining that they don't have car now, coz in the midsession they surely had the best car which is clearly evident from their points total. Vettel and alsono had 2 dnfs this season so they even now.
What If Alonso ends up winning the rest of the three races ? Will it be down to car or driver?
Defenitly car!
Now may the best man or rather the "best team" win! Coz this is a team event