2012 - the championship permutations

[raymondu999]

With Vettel and Alonso the only 2 folks able to do the title, here's how they stick up:
Vettel 255
Alonso 245

That's 10 points between the two.

The championship leader can always clinch the title at the penultimate round, so Vettel can now. In order for Vettel to do that he must outscore Alonso by 15 points. If he does beat Alonso by 15 points that means Vettel will win countback anyways - so he just has to draw level with Alonso on points. (If Alonso is to beat Vettel on count back, he has to win)

In order for Vettel to clinch the title in Austin, one of the following must occur:

If Vettel wins:
- Alonso finishes 5th or lower

If Vettel gets P2:
- Alonso finishes 9th or lower

If Vettel gets P3:
Alonso doesn't score

Any other outcome means the title goes down to the wire.

[Cam]

Thanks for doing the math Ray.

[raymondu999]

Cheers Cam. I guess I should've bumped this thread.

[Cam]

Any chance of fleshing that out to where Vettel gets no points etc - at what point is no chance of Alonso winning, i.e. dnf Vettel here etc, ?? or is that too much to figure out. Guess I could work it out, you seem to have a start on it. let me know.

[raymondu999]

Eh? There are no further "championship sealing" permutations. I only put the permutations up to Vettel in P3 because Vettel P4 automatically means the title goes to Brazil, even if Alonso DNFs.

Or am I misreading you?

[Lycoming]

I think he's asking what about a situation where, say, vettel dnfs and Alonso wins. If that is the case its irrelevant, even if that happens, the championship battle still goes to the last race.

[raymondu999]

Yeah that's how I read it too. Unless of course he wants me to do the permutations for Brazil now. Which I WON'T do - because there are somewhere in the region of 360,000 total permutations

[Websta]

nevermind - delete post

[WhiteBlue]

If Vettel wins:
- Alonso finishes 5th or lower

This is probably the most likely permutation. But it is still so unlikely that I would not bet any money on it. I can see Vettel win this race but for Alonso to score lower than P5 is not very realistic. In the last couple of months he has always fought for podiums unless he was crashed into at the start. I don't expect that to happen on CoTA and so we are likely to see Alonso back on the podium. IMO the title fight will go to the wire.

[raymondu999]

Maybe he might not get the podium, but I certainly don't believe he will end up lower than 4th.

[raymondu999]

So with the finale, here are the standings

New points
Vettel - 273
Alonso - 260

13 points. 13 points in it. Alonso must outscore Vettel by 14 points. In the event that they end up even stevens on score - then Vettel wins the title because of winning more races.

In order for Alonso to be the 2012 champion, Alonso MUST FINISH ON THE PODIUM, and Vettel MUST FINISH OUTSIDE OF THE TOP 4

Vettel will be champion if:
- Vettel finishes in the top 4
- Vettel finishes P5-P7, Alonso finishes P2 or lower
- Vettel P8-P9, Alonso finishes P3 or lower
- Vettel finishes P10/DNFs, Alonso off the podium

Alonso will be champion if:
- Alonso wins, Vettel finishes P5 or lower
- Alonso P2, Vettel finishes P8 or lower
- Alonso P3, Vettel finishes P10 or lower
- If Alonso is off the podium, he CANNOT be champion.

==============================================================================

(I did the old money calculations just for the hell of it)
Old points
Vettel – 112
Alonso – 106

Same rules apply as above (if they end up same score, then Vettel becomes champion). Interestingly in old money Vettel is a lot closer to the title.

In OLD MONEY, in order for Alonso to be the 2012 champion, Alonso MUST FINISH IN THE TOP 2, and Vettel MUST FINISH OUTSIDE OF THE TOP 5

Vettel will be champion if:
- Vettel finishes in the top 5
- Vettel finishes P6-P7, Alonso finishes P2 or lower
- Vettel finishes P8 or lower, Alonso finishes P3 or lower

Alonso will be champion if:
- Alonso wins, Vettel finshes P6 or lower
- Alonso finishes P2, Vettel finishes P8 or lower

[Lurk]

One must win, the other must do a Top 4. It could be rainy... it is Brazil...
Mmmh... A position less and it would be 2008 again.

[raymondu999]

One must win, the other must do a Top 4. It could be rainy... it is Brazil...
Mmmh... A position less and it would be 2008 again.

Alonso must go podium at least - but not win. Mathematically speaking. Realistically speaking, he probably needs to win.

[mnmracer]

One must win, the other must do a Top 4. It could be rainy... it is Brazil...
Mmmh... A position less and it would be 2008 again.

Ferrari may have the fastest car in the rain, but Vettel in the rain could finish 4th in a Torro Rosso

[raymondu999]

I think the Red Bull in the rain shouldn't be underrated either. It was competitive in both Silverstone and Hockenheim quali, in raw wet pace. Hockenheim, were it not for Vettel's braking booboo, he probably would've been on pole, even with older tyres (Alonso did his pole lap on a "splash and dash" strategy as he pitted for fresh inters)