How many races will Mercedes win this season?

[el-Magico]

If it hadn't been for Hamilton's DNF (i.e. the Merc would have raced each other at full power rather than Rosberg just coasting to the finish) and the Saftey Car, the Mercedes very well could have lapped everyone else.

Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda..

I voted for 1-6, because all the other races will be won by Ferrari.. (I wish!) [-o<

[SectorOne]

If it hadn't been for Hamilton's DNF (i.e. the Merc would have raced each other at full power rather than Rosberg just coasting to the finish) and the Saftey Car, the Mercedes very well could have lapped everyone else.

Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda..

I think you missunderstand his post. His merely pointing out that the dominance you saw in Australia most likely wasn´t even anywhere near the ultimate potential of the Mercedes because of the fact that Rosberg was alone on track, he did not have to worry about anyone other then himself.
-

Interesting comments yet again from Horner.

"I would say on average it's about a second a lap, so that's about what we have to find." When asked if the power unit was to blame, he replied: "Well based on the fact that we're giving away about a second a lap on the straights, I'll let you conclude…" - See more at: http://www.f1times.co.uk/news/display/0 ... Q0KB4.dpuf

Will be hard for Newey to design his way back into the top step if the powerunit is all to blame.

[Sevach]

According to the radio conversations Rosberg was asked to do a "hard" stint after the safety car, no fuel saving needed, open up the gap.
And it looks like he pushed indeed, he even had some trouble with his tires.
On average he was .9 s faster on that stint.

Maybe not the absolut limit, but it's doubtfull there's tons more time after that.

[SectorOne]

Yea he certainly pushed a couple of times, like after the SC as you mentioned. But maybe not 100% all the time.

Laps after Safety Car,

-0.039 (same lap the SC went in i assume)
-1.439 - Ricciardo has a slow lap and Rosberg pretty much the same laptime he did a lot in that stint.
-0.026
-0.688
-1.491 (Rosberg sets the fastest lap of the whole race on lap 19)
-0.809
-0.977
-0.682
-1.045
-0.868
-1.336 - Ricciardo fuel saving i think.
-0.334

The two laps after he loses half a second per lap to Ricciardo.
Rosberg responds with pulling out over 7 seconds in 7 laps consistently staying around the one second mark in delta between the two.

[Bluesky1]

Personally I think it is going to be 7-12.

We will see.

[JimiJams]

The only thing that will stop Mercedes from winning are mechanical issues. Rosberg was nearly a second per lap faster than Ricciardo. After the race Toto mentioned that Rosberg had his engine turned down while the FIA are claiming Ricciardo was using more than 100kg/h of fuel. If that's indeed true, Mercedes are over a second faster than the rest of the field. They also have the budget to keep development going as fast as the other big teams. Barring mechanical issues, I don't see mercedes being beaten this season.

[theslayermon]

I agree, i think Mercedes are in a great position and will probably win most races this year. With the significant speed advantage they seem to have and given that i find it unlikely that 2 of them will retire or crash in the same race i expect to see a podium for Mercedes is every race and 13+ wins between the two drivers.

[iotar__]

Safest? Looking at their engine problem rate 7-12 is optimistic. I voted for 1-6.

Why? Is their engine failure probability for both cars bigger than other teams? No data yet on that. One car failure is bigger but only based on one race, not enough.

Three other candidates: RB, Ferrari, McLaren. First two relying on engine improvements (possible but not certain), McL on best engine and bridging 20+ s gap in aero/utilisation of the engine(?)

Maybe not the safest but I stand by it - 13 races for Merc, 5 possible to win for someone else. Let's say next three guaranteed, which leaves 9 - 6 for the rest of the season. When championships are decided early teams may be switching to 2015, same for Merc but when it happens the chance is they are in front.

[Artur Craft]

If Renault catch up, RB is gonna overtake Mercedes by Barcelona, I still believe.

This is incredible, after testings, nobody expected this pace and reliability from them this early

[Rikhart]

If Renault catch up, RB is gonna overtake Mercedes by Barcelona, I still believe.

This is incredible, after testings, nobody expected this pace and reliability from them this early

Their car is absolutely the class of the field, once again. Was to be expected, they have been the team with best development rate, simulation accuracy, etc for years now, in a period of big change, its only logical sooner or later they will be in the top.

[Jon_S]

Well... IF Renault catches up they might be. But right now the truth is, Mercedes was again a second faster for the second race in a row. Don't forget that.
They are comfortably dominating and only the rain can help close the gap.

[siskue2005]

Well... IF Renault catches up they might be. But right now the truth is, Mercedes was again a second faster for the second race in a row. Don't forget that.
They are comfortably dominating and only the rain can help close the gap.

Exactly
dont forget that Vettel finished 24sec behind Lewis today
and Dani also finished 24sec behind Nico in Aus with them cruising around....it could be that there are no one in between the two teams and making it look as if Redbull are closer

in 2013 Mercs were just 15sec behind at malaysia in similar conditions

the most dominant race of 2013 Singapore Vettel was 30sec+ to the next car

[Juzh]

The gap is too big for renault to catch up this year. How on earth are they gonna find 1s (likely even more) from a frozen engine? No amount of software optimisation will make that happen. This season is done.

[Artur Craft]

The comparisons are not very appropriate, imo. In Singapore, the gap was only 30s because of 2 SCs

The last race had around 56 laps and Vettel finished only 24s behind, that means less than 0,5s per lap. And if Mercedes was cruising, RB is also not showing the best they can given how poor their testings was.

To have a good idea about each car's pure speed, we have to wait until Bahrain because it has been hard to get a dry qualifying this year.

[FoxHound]

The gap is too big for renault to catch up this year. How on earth are they gonna find 1s (likely even more) from a frozen engine? No amount of software optimisation will make that happen. This season is done.

I don't follow that.
The Mercedes-Benz PU is optimised as it had a bigger lead time and more testing. The gains Merc can now make are far more limited as it's law of diminished returns here.
Renault on the other hand fully acknowledge their traction issues when the power comes on song. Note, the power of the Renault has already been described as impressive, WHEN it works.

The issues are primarily software, and this is not frozen in the engine formula currently. Once they have optimised the software to be able to deliver power more effectively, the traction issues become resolved and multiple tenths get cut from the deficit from venue to venue.