If Vettel performs poorly this year... what will that mean?

[bill shoe]

I think the test for an up-and-coming driver against the established superstar is race pace.

Over the last 3 years at Ferrari, Massa could qualify similarly to Alonso. But come the race Alonso would move his car up the order while Massa always dropped back.

Similarly at Red Bull for the last 3 or 4 years, Webber was always close to Vettel in Q3, but then in race after race he would fade back while Vettel would podium or win.

The ominous sign for Vettel right now is that Ricciardo's race performances are dead consistent and on-par with his great qualifying performances. Ricciardo is not simply a "good qualifier", rather he seems to be a really good race car driver. It pains me to say this because over the past couple years I have counted Ricciardo out based on lackluster performance against his Torro Roso teammates. I'm currently being proven wrong. At least it's interesting.

When it comes to Vettel, I basically agree with the Alonso comments that start this thread.

[Pierce89]

I've long felt Alonso was the best driver in f1 with Hami roughly equal but SLIGHTLY behind. IMHO Vettel is probably the 3rd to 5th best driver in f1(the same range as Hulkenberg or Rosberg). So if Ricci beats him I'll just add him to that same range in my driver rankings.

[Artur Craft]

IF he gets outperformed over the course of season on pure merit, then we might have to ask ourselves a different question: How good is Ricciardo?

No, I don't think that's the question that needs to be asked at all. Ricciardo never really showed himself to be significantly better than his team mate at Toro Rosso (better yes, but not significantly better). There's no good argument to be made that Ricciardo is in any way the second coming of christ. Instead, the question that should be asked if Ricciardo manages to beat Vettel is simply "wow, how good were those RedBulls, and how bad had webber got?"

He proved to have a lot more raw speed than JEV, tbh. Here's a demonstration of that in qualifyings:

When Ricciardo was a lot faster(at least over 0,4s) than JEV in qualifying
Malaysia 2012
15 16 Daniel Ricciardo STR-Ferrari 1:38.419 1:37.883
18 17 Jean-Eric Vergne STR-Ferrari 1:39.077
China 2012
17 16 Daniel Ricciardo STR-Ferrari 1:36.933 1:36.956 14
18 17 Jean-Eric Vergne STR-Ferrari 1:37.714
Bahrain 2012
6 16 Daniel Ricciardo STR-Ferrari 1:33.988 1:33.556 1:32.912 17
19 17 Jean-Eric Vergne STR-Ferrari 1:35.014
Monaco 2012
6 16 Daniel Ricciardo STR-Ferrari 1:16.360 1:15.878 19
17 17 Jean-Eric Vergne STR-Ferrari 1:16.491 1:16.885
Canada 2012
14 16 Daniel Ricciardo STR-Ferrari 1:15.552 1:15.078 21
20 17 Jean-Eric Vergne STR-Ferrari 1:16.602
Japan 2012
16 16 Daniel Ricciardo STR-Ferrari 1:33.059 1:32.954 14
17 17 Jean-Eric Vergne STR-Ferrari 1:33.370 1:33.368
India 2012
15 16 Daniel Ricciardo STR-Ferrari 1:27.006 1:26.777 19
18 17 Jean-Eric Vergne STR-Ferrari 1:27.525
Abu Dhabi 2012
17 16 Daniel Ricciardo STR-Ferrari 1:43.280 1:42.765 14
18 17 Jean-Eric Vergne STR-Ferrari 1:44.058
Malaysia 2013
13 19 Daniel Ricciardo STR-Ferrari 1:37.722 1:38.822 12
17 18 Jean-Eric Vergne STR-Ferrari 1:38.157
China 2013
7 19 Daniel Ricciardo STR-Ferrari 1:36.993 1:36.258 1:35.998 15
16 18 Jean-Eric Vergne STR-Ferrari 1:37.508 1:37.199
Great Britain 2013
5 19 Daniel Ricciardo STR-Ferrari 1:32.097 1:31.182 1:30.757 20
12 18 Jean-Eric Vergne STR-Ferrari 1:32.105 1:31.785
Germany 2013
6 19 Daniel Ricciardo STR-Ferrari 1:31.081 1:30.223 1:30.528 16
16 18 Jean-Eric Vergne STR-Ferrari 1:31.629 1:31.104
Hungary 2013
8 19 Daniel Ricciardo STR-Ferrari 1:21.181 1:20.527 1:20.641 14
14 18 Jean-Eric Vergne STR-Ferrari 1:21.345 1:21.029
Japan 2013
16 19 Daniel Ricciardo STR-Ferrari 1:32.804 1:32.485 11
18 18 Jean-Eric Vergne STR-Ferrari 1:33.357
Abu Dhabi 2013
10 19 Daniel Ricciardo STR-Ferrari 1:41.884 1:40.852
14 18 Jean-Eric Vergne STR-Ferrari 1:41.692 1:41.279
USA 2013
11 19 Daniel Ricciardo STR-Ferrari 1:38.882 1:38.131 18
16 18 Jean-Eric Vergne STR-Ferrari 1:38.880 1:38.696


When Vergne was a lot faster(at least over 0,4s) than Ricciardo in qualifying
Hungary 2012
16 17 Jean-Eric Vergne STR-Ferrari 1:22.799 1:22.380 10
18 16 Daniel Ricciardo STR-Ferrari 1:23.250
USA 2012
14 17 Jean-Eric Vergne STR-Ferrari 1:38.434 1:37.879 17
18 16 Daniel Ricciardo STR-Ferrari 1:39.114
Monaco 2013 wet Q1 and Q2
10 18 Jean-Eric Vergne STR-Ferrari 1:23.699 1:17.623
12 19 Daniel Ricciardo STR-Ferrari 1:24.852 1:18.344
Canada 2013 rain
7 18 Jean-Eric Vergne STR-Ferrari 1:24.159 1:28.527 1:26.543 32
10 19 Daniel Ricciardo STR-Ferrari 1:24.770 1:29.359 1:27.946

Some are mind blowing like Bahrain and Monaco from 2012 and China, Silverstone and Germany from 2013 but even in the others, the list of gaps between both is eye-catching:
1,2s ; 0,7s ; 2,1s ; 1,0s ; 1,5s ; 0,4s ; 0,75 ; 1,3s ; 0,4s ; 1,2s ; 1,0s ; 0,9s ; 0,5s ; 0,9s ; 0,4s and 0,5s

Here is the list when JEV imposed big gaps to Daniel:
0,9s ; 1,2s ; 0,7s and 1,4s

It all relies on how quick JEV is but, personally, it indicates to me that Ricciardo is seriously fast, ie, Vettel being slower than him doesn't mean he was hyped or overated for his 4 tittles, imho

[CHT]

I remember reading a similar thread about vettel when Webber was quicker. So I am going to guess the outcome of this season will be the same, and then conspiracy theories will takeover.

[Tim.Wright]

Raikkonen has never had a pull-rod suspension car before and it sure as hell doesn't fit in with his style of driving the car with emphasis on the front end mechanicals.

Does the pullrod really make that much of a difference?

Apart from possibly a slightly different installation stiffess, there is no mechanical difference between pull and push. The differences are purely aerodynamic.

Apologies for starting a technical discussion in a ying yang thread...

[Coulthard's Jaw]

what does it mean? two things. Ricciardo is an awesome driver, and Webber quit at the right time, possibly a season later than he should have.

[WhiteBlue]

It is a bit early to make any judgement IMO. Vettel is a driver who needs a car fine tuned to his style. In that he is probably similar to other great drivers. Hamilton is the opposite. He takes every car and wrings all possible performance out of it. I will wait until the Red Bull situation has stabilized and Seb has a car which does reliably what he wants it to do. He has used inferior cars like the Toro Rosso to win a race in the rain. That shows he does not always need the fastest car on track to be superior. So if we see a whole year of bad performances I will also start to have second thoughts about him, but that appears unlikely to me.

[lebesset]

I guess webber is regretting he isn't still in the red bull this season

these cars are much trickier to drive , and I suspect he would be doing just what ricci is doing despite his physical disadvantage , the cars are much more suitable for his driving style

ask yourself a question ; suppose F1 was a spec series , all the cars being , for example , this years williams
who would you put your money on to be champion ?
personally I wouldn't consider vettel .... hamilton , alonso , kimi would be on my list , and in that order


oh , my answer to the OP's question ...it will mean that he is no more than a good driver and that he is a 4 x WDC because of his team

oh , re kimi's engineers , not only has he lost his old engineer , but as rob smedley has gone , massa's as well

[ChrisM40]

Its clear he is a great driver, but he is not one of the greats. Greats dont behave like he does.

[turbof1]

I want to reiterate Jimclarkfan's first post:

I'm worried because when a thread like this is made sometimes they can spiral into mayhem, and I don't want to be accused of making a thread to bait people into arguing because that is not my intention

Generally this topic has actually moved along quite well, but the last page a few people thought they had to come up with snide remarks and instigate. So again:

PLEASE, be polite and civil. We don't have anything against any opinion, but formulate in a manner that keeps respect. If you stay constructive and objective in your posts, other members will appreciate this as well and a good discussion will come from this.

[Mandrake]

The race today showed again what I think is lack of motivation. After his first PitStop when he came out behind Alonso, being faster than Alonso but unable to pass (that Renault definetly lacks some 30-40 HP, at least on the Mercs) he was first fighting hard, like "old" Vettel, but then while dropping back it looked like he was thinking, why push at all, Rosberg is gonna get me anyways and I will only destroy my tires behind Alonso.

Also, one point brought up by commentary: Ricciardo comes from a car that was far from handling as well as the RB9. Now he might find himself in a bad RedBull, but that car could still be a lot better than what he was used to at Toro Rosso. Ric stepped up, Vettel stepped down.

[Waywardism]

Vettel performing poorly this year would mean nothing for me personally. I fully expect him to perform poorly while his car isn't exactly to his liking. I think he's like Button in that respect, and I rate him about the same amount as I rate Button. Good but by no means great.

He'd have to show he can get the most out of the machinery he's given, whatever it's characteristics, to change my opinion of him as a racer.

[JimClarkFan]

Vettel performing poorly this year would mean nothing for me personally. I fully expect him to perform poorly while his car isn't exactly to his liking. I think he's like Button in that respect, and I rate him about the same amount as I rate Button. Good but by no means great.

He'd have to show he can get the most out of the machinery he's given, whatever it's characteristics, to change my opinion of him as a racer.

This is the closest so far to my personal opinion.

[myurr]

Yeah I can really get behind that opinion. Even Horner hinted at it being the case that Seb needs the car to be perfectly sorted to perform at his best. That's one of the reasons I rate both Hamilton and Alonso higher than him, their ability to drive around issues and still drag an off balance car through to a good result. The Red Bull and Pirelli tyres over the last few years have perfectly suited Vettel making him practically unbeatable, however now that things have shifted a little bit he's struggling to even beat his team mate let alone dominate the field.

[lebesset]

It is a bit early to make any judgement IMO. Vettel is a driver who needs a car fine tuned to his style. In that he is probably similar to other great drivers. Hamilton is the opposite. He takes every car and wrings all possible performance out of it. I will wait until the Red Bull situation has stabilized and Seb has a car which does reliably what he wants it to do. He has used inferior cars like the Toro Rosso to win a race in the rain. That shows he does not always need the fastest car on track to be superior. So if we see a whole year of bad performances I will also start to have second thoughts about him, but that appears unlikely to me.

I don't agree with that at all
great drivers are the ones who can get the best out of whatever they have in my view
vettel 's past and present results demonstrate that he isn't that , at least not yet ...he is still young , maybe he can learn ...frankly I doubt it but would be delighted to be proved wrong as the sport needs it's great ones