How soon will Merc wrap up both championships?

[mertol]

I bet Nico and Ham will crash each other out at some point allowing another team to win. My bet is on redbull to be that other team.

[Phil]

Right, the points will be very close. I mean that psychologically, I think any driver would pretty much be done having been beaten 5 times in a row by someone in the same machinery. I doubt that Nico would be able to come back from that place mentally.

In my very humble opinion, I think a DNF deciding this years WDC to be far more likely. Hamilton might have the upper hand, but I'm a bit worried about the prospect of him suffering a unfortunate unlucky DNF in the middle of the season, giving Nico a comfortable 25 points lead. If this happens, I could very well imagine Hamilton to overdrive his car (instead of remaining calm) to make sure he beats his team-mate to take back the lost points and as a result, make even more mistakes or fall back. A scenario like this could quickly lead into a spiral of destruction (as it did to a degree in 2012) which would be shattering to any WDC prospect at that stage of the championship and in a season where possibly it's only ever a Mercedes fight for 1st or 2nd place.

On the way there, I think I can see Rosberg winning a few races. I think he will be quite strong in Monaco. The big question is also how important qualifying will be - if a driver can remain strong in the race, thanks to DRS, strategy and race-pace could easily be the decider. The big question will be - how will the support from the pitwall be, will we see favoritism? And to what extent will the team intefere if they get too close?

The only way I don't see this playing out is if Hamilton continues strong and Nico suffers a DNF, to give Lewis a big lead. Then I could easily see Hamilton becoming more relaxed and possibly an even stronger driver, similarly to when he is leading and controlling a race. A lot of ifs, I know. I really just hope that it's not a (technical) DNF decides this years WDC and neither does the stupid double-point-last-race-win. That would be such a shame.

As a Hamilton supporter, I really hope he does it. But my gut is still telling me that Nico might have a bit of luck on his side and win some of his mojo back by a DNF on Lewis's car... A DNF at 25 points (potentially 32 if you lose from 1st) IMO is just too costly this year.

[CHT]

I would think the driver with better mental strength will win the championship this year. At the moment, both drivers are still pretty relax because there are still many races and points to fight for. Once the odds and stake of losing become higher, thats when you will see driver making silly mistakes.

LH is a driver who is quite prone to making mistake when put under pressure, so I do agree that Lewis will most like to suffer more DNF than Rosberg.

[example]

Nothing what we have seen so far this season is indicating, that Lewis will make mistakes under pressure. Past year I think he has learned how to be patient.
Also remember that last year he only had one DNF.

[CHT]

Nothing what we have seen so far this season is indicating, that Lewis will make mistakes under pressure. Past year I think he has learned how to be patient.
Also remember that last year he only had one DNF.

We have only completed 4 races, 15 more races to go. At the moment LH and NR still can joke about it etc, because if you loss a race now, or make mistake, you still have 15 more races to catch up.

The real pressure will come on the last few races where you will either finish as champion or with nothing.

[SiLo]

Nothing what we have seen so far this season is indicating, that Lewis will make mistakes under pressure. Past year I think he has learned how to be patient.
Also remember that last year he only had one DNF.

Brundle was saying how much more patient Hamilton has become. Not only as a whole but on the throttle, which is giving him better tyre life, and a more stable rear by not breaking traction so much.

[CHT]

Nothing what we have seen so far this season is indicating, that Lewis will make mistakes under pressure. Past year I think he has learned how to be patient.
Also remember that last year he only had one DNF.

Brundle was saying how much more patient Hamilton has become. Not only as a whole but on the throttle, which is giving him better tyre life, and a more stable rear by not breaking traction so much.

LH career has always been a roller coaster ride. The only positive right now is that he doesnt have to deal with pussycat doll.

[Dyanxx]

Nothing what we have seen so far this season is indicating, that Lewis will make mistakes under pressure. Past year I think he has learned how to be patient.
Also remember that last year he only had one DNF.

Brundle was saying how much more patient Hamilton has become. Not only as a whole but on the throttle, which is giving him better tyre life, and a more stable rear by not breaking traction so much.

LH career has always been a roller coaster ride. The only positive right now is that he doesnt have to deal with pussycat doll.

Off topic, but he is still with her, which makes it so surprising the kind of performance he has shown this season.

[Jolle]

Nothing what we have seen so far this season is indicating, that Lewis will make mistakes under pressure. Past year I think he has learned how to be patient.
Also remember that last year he only had one DNF.

Brundle was saying how much more patient Hamilton has become. Not only as a whole but on the throttle, which is giving him better tyre life, and a more stable rear by not breaking traction so much.

LH career has always been a roller coaster ride. The only positive right now is that he doesnt have to deal with pussycat doll.

Also remember that Nico's dad became WC in 1982 with only one GP victory....

[example]

Nothing what we have seen so far this season is indicating, that Lewis will make mistakes under pressure. Past year I think he has learned how to be patient.
Also remember that last year he only had one DNF.

We have only completed 4 races, 15 more races to go. At the moment LH and NR still can joke about it etc, because if you loss a race now, or make mistake, you still have 15 more races to catch up.

The real pressure will come on the last few races where you will either finish as champion or with nothing.

True, it's still early days, but Nico was in a strange mood after China.

[mnmracer]

Only 5 F1 drivers in history did not become champion in the year they got a hat-trick of wins.

• Alan Jones ('79)
• Damon Hill ('93, '94)
• Ayrton Senna ('89)
• Nigel Mansell ('91)
• Michael Schumacher ('06)

If Lewis wins his 4th in a row, historically it would seal the deal for him: no driver has ever won 4 in a row and not won the championship that year.

The good news for Lewis already is that all of those drivers, bar Michael Schumacher -who was in his last season- won at least one more championship in their career.

[Lycoming]

Just a reminder that correlation does not imply causation.

[SiLo]

No but statistics are statistics and we would be silly to ignore them.

[Shrieker]

Hamilton has already had a mechanical dnf. It has only taken 3 races for him to draw level. It would be extremely unlucky for him to suffer another mechanical while Nico suffers none. While possible, it is unlikely. These things tend to balance themselves during the course of the season.

[beelsebob]

Hamilton has already had a mechanical dnf. It has only taken 3 races for him to draw level. It would be extremely unlucky for him to suffer another mechanical while Nico suffers none. While possible, it is unlikely. These things tend to balance themselves during the course of the season.

It is no more or less likely than Nico suffering one. Past events do not affect the probability of future ones. If you've flipped a coin 5 times and got heads, the next coin flip still has a 50/50 chance of coming up heads, even though the probability of getting 6 heads in a row was 1 in 64 before you started flipping.

Note - yes, I know we'e not talking about 100% independent events here so the maths doesn't work *quite* like that, but given that we have no good knowledge of how events are connected, this is the best approximation we can make.