Hamilton Vs Rosberg 2014

[WaikeCU]

I agree. About the DNF - the first wasn't his fault in anyway, but I was more refering to any future DNFs. Arguably, the Canada DNF was induced by following Nico around so close. Had the roles been reversed, it might have been the other way around.

Still, looking into the future, I think a DNF is more likely to strike the driver who is pushing harder - and because Lewis has points to make up, I think that could just befall him more likely for this reason.

But yeah, if Nico has a DNF and the gap is down to zero, this talk will be all for nothing.

This is perhaps the way this sport is heading. Drivers and teams have to save on everything. Save fuel, save energy, save tyres, save basically all kinds of parts that is fitted on the car. This will lead to material fatigue, which will cause failures mechanically some time, some day. Drivers just can't push anymore, because sooner or later it will lead to higher possibility of mechanical failures later during the season.

[Mandrake]

The same type of accusations were leveled at Red Bull last year over Webber's ride and in the end it all came down to Marc being harder on his equipment than Vettel. Occam's Razor FTW.

Ricciardo must have the driving inputs of a mouse for that to be true. If Webber was still around he probably would not have done even one lap then seeing how many problems Vettel has now.

Well, Mark broke the Porsche at LeMans when it counted and had to push to stay ahead of the Audi, so......

[thomin]

it wasn't long ago the discussion was the other way. how the pressure was on nico, how its lewis's title now etc. etc. and in fact it was nico's own mistake (monaco quali) which turned the tide for him. so lets just see what happens

Exactly. It's way too early to call this. Nico has a slight advantage now, but a lot can happen. Lewis is still master of his own fortune and not dependent upon Nico suffering some bad luck or making a mistake. At the same time, he has now less room for error. Should be interesting.

[dans79]

I see it like this.

They are both fast, but I think Lewis is faster, They both look at each others data and learn from it, However I think Nico gets more of a benefit from Leiws's data than Lewis does from his, because Lewis is the faster of the two imo.

The pluses I see from Lewis, is even when he had bad weekends he was right on Nico. I think he needs to hide more during Friday and Saturday morning.

[gray41]

I happy they both have each other to make this season competitive, imagine one was nowhere near the level of the other.

[Ciro Pabón]

... You are absolutely right. Statistics tell us nothing about the future, but only about the past...

... well, I think that's not entirely true, although I know perfectly well that is kind of a trend to despise statistics...



... or perhaps my teachers lied (very convincingly) about metal fatigue, loads for structural analysis, hydrology computations for bridges and traffic flow patterns.

I believe most people do not think about that when crossing a bridge, where all those statistics are put to work to ensure you will cross to the other side, even in an earthquake, while raining and in the middle of a traffic jam.

To put it in another way: "It was a heavy storm, I was driving fast, the night was mighty dark, she was reclining against me, I was drunk... and the bull was black¨.

I frequently tend to say that if you want to know about the past, about who's to blame (like some people in this thread, ehem, ehem), please, hire a lawyer.

Judges are all about the past.

On the other hand, engineering is about what we should do, not about who's to blame.

Good engineers concentrate in the future, hence, we all become statisticians... and you do not become one until you can discern your f-tests and your ANOVAs.

For example, you know, betting is about the future.

Statistics about the future, short version


So, if you believe statistics serve no purpose to understand the future, will you take a par bet on Ericsson against my bet on Hamilton?

Never tell me the odds!

[NathanOlder]

Maybe Rosberg will have 1 failure at the end of the year costing him 36 points. With Lewis picking up 50 at one of his favourite tracks.

[SiLo]

I'd like Rosberg to have at least one DNF with Lewis picking up the win. Simply because the Championship being tighter makes it more fun! That way both drivers have to go at it hammer and tongs rather than just one.

[Phil]

These are the remaining races:

July 6th Silverstone
July 20th Hockenheim
July 27th Hungaroring
August 24th Spa
September 7th Monza
September 21st Singapore
October 5th Japan
October 12th Russia
November 2nd CotA
November 9th Brazil
November 23 Abu Dhabi


Lets assume Lewis does an amazing job and wins the next 5 races. That means he'll be leading by Singapore with 6 races remaining. However, if he has another DNF, it will add another 4 races that he will need to win consecutively in order to make up what he has lost. If that holds true (lets assume a DNF in Silverstone with a Nico win) - then the gap would be at 54 points. That equals 8 consecutive wins (with 9 remaining races before double-point finish), so at the very earliest, he could catch Nico by Brazil, the 2nd last game.

And to be really honest, I don't see Lewis dominating the next 5 races, much less the next 8 in consecutive order. Any one loss (2nd to Nico's Win) will mean an extra win with one race less is required to make that up.

I guess this post isn't to sound too pessimistic, but more to raise the issue of the underlying psychology. IMO the pressure is huge not to get a self-inflcted DNF, but it also shows how crucial another DNF (on Hamilton's part) could prove to be in regards to the WDC.

The wider that gap is - the less I see Nico getting that DNF because in theory, he will be driving more relaxed, higher margin. He can afford to come 2nd with the occasional win.

What this unfortunately also means is that it's quite likely that the double point finish in Abu Dhabi will play a significant role in the outcome of the WDC, which is an utter shame. That, or Nico wins it before. I really don't see it happening different, but I'd be happy to be eating my words if it plays out differently.

IMO the probability of a DNF also depends on how much under pressure Mercedes gets by other competitors. If the gap to the other teams decreases, I would expect more errors to happen. If it doesn't, then I see Mercedes comfortably managing their race, their car and their drivers too.

[chrispphunt]

I think the battle between the two drivers is great but also agree with an earlier poster that Hamiltons data benefits Rosbergs a lot more than the other way around.
When mercedes win the constructors title, will they let the two sides of the garage have a proper battle? no data sharing? if they do then we may see the game change a lot imo...
As it is Hamilton will struggle to claw them points back and the pressure really is building- he really needs to step it back up at silverstone.

Hamitons ICE allowance could help in the future, hes effectively completed one less race distance and don't forget Rosberg was on the ICE alone for a lot of laps in Canada and he was hardly cruising round! or will that be brushed under the carpet as well, just saying.........

[dans79]

If I could do one thing, it would to be to walk up to Wolff and make him sit down and shut his big mouth. The more he talks, the more it becomes obvious who he favors, and that he doesn't understand F1 at all.

http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/114619
http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/114616

[matt_b]

An interesting stat is that Lewis only needs to stay within 13 points of Nico (14 points if they're equal on wins) then whoever wins in Abu Dhabi wins the title.

[astracrazy]

Ye http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/114619 concerns me how they basically wrote Hamilton off before the race started - almost sort of punishment because of Sat. He was behind Rosberg after lap 1 so that sort of attitude concerns me - or at least concerns me if after lap 1 that was still the attitude. I can kind of understand it to start with but not once Lewis is behind Nico.

Also to say Rosberg was the fastest guy just because he was third is inaccurate and unfair - as I've said he was with Nico after lap 1 and if you give Hamilton the same pitstops as Rosberg I think he gets him.

Sky did mention that Toto said on the pitwall "that can not happen". I'm questioning what that was about now (baring in mind this was just before Hamilton's 2nd pitstop)....

Maybe Toto's view is its all about quali and the team will favour the driver on poll

An interesting stat is that Lewis only needs to stay within 13 points of Nico (14 points if they're equal on wins) then whoever wins in Abu Dhabi wins the title.

I think either way the double points race will decide this championship. I don't know if they will be close going into that race but i think that will be the race which decides it. I also can see a twist at the end as well.

[PlatinumZealot]

Only Lewis Hamilton can beat Lewis Hamilton.

Oh.. and Mechancal gremlins and team cock ups lol

[iotar__]

Only Lewis Hamilton can beat Lewis Hamilton.

Oh.. and Mechancal gremlins and team cock ups lol

Not really, Rosberg is the one doing better job recently and is beating Hamilton fair and square. The more LH is out-qualified (his no-doubt biggest strength) the more I hear how he really is the faster one, against all logic. Theoretical speed counts for nothing, even his biggest fan Button gave up on it. Like it or not it's 4-1 in dry qualifying, selective but you can expect more dry than wet races. Monaco is questionable but even Barcelona was close and it was AFAIR Rosberg with a slight advantage before last Q3 runs.

From Rosberg's side it's nice to see some aggression and risks even with mistakes, something that was missing in previous seasons. Obvious but: a lot of races, one DNF can change a lot, so it's 51-49 advantage Rosberg. It's a bit annoying hearing that Rosberg is due DNF so if he is than LH is due:
- one lost lead due to pitstop mistake (Canada)
- one preferential pitstop timing for Rosberg when Hamilton leads (like Austria)
- two times poor strategy while being second and faster (Bahrain, Spain)
- one telemetry failure before the race
In terms of pole position lost due to yellow flags/mistakes of other drivers it's a draw I guess. Speaking about mistakes one Hamilton win - Bahrain - is purely thanks to Rosberg mistake at the start since he was faster in Q and the race.