Hamilton Vs Rosberg 2014

[PlatinumZealot]

Rosberg is just Lucky his teamate got two DNF's and two brainfades in Q3 Canada and Austria. In straight fight Rosberg has never beaten his teammate so I will wait until that Happens before I even consider Rosberg one of the big Three.

Last year, Smikle, you were claiming Vettel is the best driver.

If I did say that it was for a good reason. Vettel was the best based on what he was doing on the track. For me, it is the driver's job to drive the car that he is given. In my opinion Vettel may not be the most talented or the most level headed but I think he is one of the most intelligent we have seen and he was doing the best job of driving his car.

[Stradivarius]

I thought I'd look at the qualifying times of Hamilton and Rosberg and see if anything has changed since last year. I decided to look at the relative difference in order to account for some tracks being longer than others. The column Ros/Ham is simply Rosberg's laptime divided by Hamilton's lap time, which was used to determine the relative difference. Numbers larger than 1 indicate that Hamilton beat Rosberg, while numbers smaller than one indicate that Rosberg beat Hamilton. 3 times one of them failed to make it to Q3 and then the Q2 times were used instead. Here is the data for 2013:

Code: Select all

Rosberg      Hamilton          Ros/Ham
 88.523        88.087          1.004950
112.519       110.727          1.016184
 94.861        94.484          1.003990
 92.330        92.762          0.995343
 80.718        80.972          0.996863
 73.876        73.967          0.998770
 86.008        85.512          1.005800
 90.059        89.607          1.005044
 90.326        90.152 Q2       1.001930
 79.720        79.388          1.004182
122.251       121.012          1.010239
 84.393        84.803 Q2       0.995165
102.932       103.254          0.996881
 97.679        97.420          1.002659
 91.397        91.253          1.001578
 84.871        84.941          0.999176
100.419	    100.501          0.999184
 98.364	     97.854 Q2       1.005212
 87.102	     87.677          0.993442


 92.5446       92.3354         1.001926

On the bottom of each column, I wrote the average values. First it is tempting to simply look at the difference in average lap time, which is 0.209 s in Hamilton's favour. But I find it more meaningful to look at the relative difference, which states that Rosberg on average takes 0.1926% longer time on his qualifying lap. We see that a qualifying lap takes typically 90 seconds, so if Hamilton does a lap of 1:30.000, then Rosberg will on average do a lap of 1:30.173.

Interestingly enough, this number is practically identical so far this year. Here is the data for 2014:

Code: Select all

Rosberg      Hamilton          Ros/Ham
104.595       104.231          1.003492
120.050       119.431          1.005183
 93.185        93.464          0.997015
115.143       113.860          1.011268
 85.400        85.232          1.001971
 75.989        76.048          0.999224
 74.874        74.953          0.998946
 68.974        69.092 Q2       0.998292


 92.2763       92.0389         1.001924

Notice how the average relative difference is practically the same as for 2013. So far this year, Rosberg takes 0.1924% more time than Hamilton on a qualifying lap. Again, if we consider a track where Hamilton qualifies on 1:30.000, Rosberg will qualify on 1:30.173 based on the average performance.

In other words, the gap in qualifying between Hamilton and Rosberg has not increased from last year.

[iotar__]

Lies, big lies and statistics :
1. "3 times one of them failed to make it to Q3 and then the Q2 times were used instead" - it's a bit apples to oranges don't you think? Especially with Merc cars that had more or less guaranteed Q3. Purpose of Q2 is to get into Q3 possibly saving tyres (2013) not to prove outright speed between drivers. Of course reasons for not getting into Q3 might be different altogether, perfect example Germany 2013. This is even worse:
2. 68.974 69.092 Q2 0.998292
How convenient when Hamilton makes it into Q3 and fails to make a time let's use Q2 times. What exactly is compared or proved that way, that failure is rewarded with questionable "driver's speed" statistics?

Other factors like missed whole or part of P3 that made it impossible to work on qualifying set up (Rosberg Italy), other car problems or team failures are excluded but driver's failure in Q3 is included. So let's say it's the same if Rosberg doesn't make it into Q3 in Germany 2013 because of team's error and Hamilton can't make a quick lap (Italy 2013)?

[Stradivarius]

Lies, big lies and statistics :
1. "3 times one of them failed to make it to Q3 and then the Q2 times were used instead" - it's a bit apples to oranges don't you think? Especially with Merc cars that had more or less guaranteed Q3. Purpose of Q2 is to get into Q3 possibly saving tyres (2013) not to prove outright speed between drivers. Of course reasons for not getting into Q3 might be different altogether, perfect example Germany 2013. This is even worse:
2. 68.974 69.092 Q2 0.998292
How convenient when Hamilton makes it into Q3 and fails to make a time let's use Q2 times. What exactly is compared or proved that way, that failure is rewarded with questionable "driver's speed" statistics?

Isn't it obvious what is compared? The driver's qualifying speed is compared. But if it makes you happy, feel free to do the same calculation excluding this track. Just go ahead and eliminate Germany 2013 as well, if that's important to you, and present us the overwhelming difference it makes.

Other factors like missed whole or part of P3 that made it impossible to work on qualifying set up (Rosberg Italy), other car problems or team failures are excluded but driver's failure in Q3 is included. So let's say it's the same if Rosberg doesn't make it into Q3 in Germany 2013 because of team's error and Hamilton can't make a quick lap (Italy 2013)?

I am not talking about driver errors or performance in general. I am talking about qualifying speed, as a response to some earlier claims that the speed difference has increased from last year. In 2013, there were 3 examples of one of the Mercedes drivers not making it into Q3. In those cases, the Q2 times were used instead, as they are the best possible measures available to compare the drivers. The fact that one driver doesn't make it to Q3, usually indicates that the driver's effort is of importance even in Q2 and it makes no sense to assume that the drivers are not doing their best in Q2 as well. Team errors may occur, but they are rare and won't make a big difference when looking at the bigger picture and they tend to even out between drivers over time.

In Austria Hamilton didn't get a time in Q3, so Q2 was used. Mercedes had more than half a second to the 11th fastest time in Q2, so maybe they were playing it a bit more safe there. However, my impression is that Q2 is used by the drivers as a rehearsal for Q3 and the speed difference in Q2 is generally representative for the speed in Q3. Maybe I will post some statistics on that as well if you don't believe it. I am pretty sure that Q2 speed difference generally correlates well with Q3 speed difference. In Austria Rosberg improved his time from Q2 to Q3 by 0.030 s, so I doubt he was holding back much in Q2. Other drivers typically improved by a a couple of tenths, which can probably be explained by improved track conditions.

I am not sure exactly what your point is here. beyond trying to argue that statistics are lies. Are you claiming that the speed difference between Hamilton and Rosberg has changed from last year? All I am saying is that the numbers don't back such a claim and numbers don't lie. People who interpret numbers may lie or they may do mistakes in their interpretations, but I haven't done any such thing here. I am simply stating some pretty basic facts which show that the relative speed difference on average is the same so far this year as it was last year. Hence there is nothing that supports a claim that the difference has changed.

[Phil]

Personally, I think he's just trying to stir up a perfectly good analysis. Having that said, nicely done Stradivarius, the numbers are well appreciated and indeed very interesting.

About the Q2 times - the difference might be smaller to Q3 this year, but I don't think it has always been that way. Perhaps it's smaller due to the fact that the Mercedes is dominant and that they can afford to. You do make a good point however that a car that doesn't get into Q3 might have pushed hard in the Q2 session. This is probably very true. On the other hand, like in Austria, if a problem or a driver error leads to the loss of Q3 in a very Q3 capable car, it may be less representative. After all, the goal in Q2 for a Q3 capable car, is to be within the top 10. Since the Q2 lap time also dictate which tyres you start on, it would be essential to do a clean lap, perhaps that's not on the very limit.

[i70q7m7ghw]

I think Hamilton needs to get on with driving and stop making constant comments in the press. At monaco it was about being more hungry than Rosberg, because of his "hard" upbringing. This week its comparisons to Ali. When was the last time Rosberg was quoted in the press saying anything like this? Hamilton is his own worst enemy at the moment.

[Phil]

I wonder how much stuff like this has to do with the press, asking the right questions. As a driver, no matter how diplomatic or intelligent / press savvy you are, if you get asked the right questions over and over again, sooner or later, unfortunate quotes / statements are bound to happen. :/ And being the right driver then, you can be sure stuff like this to get blown out of proportion.

This isn't directed at the latest inteview btw (I haven't read them yet) - but overall, I think some drivers are just lucky to get less publicity. I think Rosberg is one of these drivers - perhaps because he's German and not a WDC (yet), so he might be more subject to German media (and scrutineering) than Hamilton in the English press.

One things for sure though; I've often felt Hamilton could do more to come across better in the press at times - even if it comes down to playing mind-games. On the other hand, and for this reason, I also enjoy hearing what he has to say.

[Stradivarius]

I honestly doubt that unfortunate comments in the press will affect the performance on the track. However, I can very well imagine that it goes the other way, that the performance on the track affects the comments made to the press. But I can't say I am too focused on the comments in the press, so maybe I am missing something.

[i70q7m7ghw]

I honestly doubt that unfortunate comments in the press will affect the performance on the track. However, I can very well imagine that it goes the other way, that the performance on the track affects the comments made to the press. But I can't say I am too focused on the comments in the press, so maybe I am missing something.

It's more that he seems to spend a lot of time thinking about these things. He needs to be thinking about making fewer mistakes, and finding more speed in the car so he can regain the championship need. God only knows why he's thinking about boxing

"I think about Muhammad Ali," Hamilton told BBC Sport.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula-one/28147502

He also regularly "writes" a column for the BBC (it's probably dictated and written by someone else). I question how relevant this is, ti's normally something retired drivers do.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/28111358

I mean look at all this drivel:-
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/27526301
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/27530327

How many other drivers are writing columns, tweeting, instagramming, etc. at the same volume ???

EDIT: He's also over-driving at the moment. I just watched him doing a flying lap in practice, he's throwing the car in to corners with too much speed and running wide, missing apexs, he's looking like a rookie!

[SiLo]

I honestly doubt that unfortunate comments in the press will affect the performance on the track. However, I can very well imagine that it goes the other way, that the performance on the track affects the comments made to the press. But I can't say I am too focused on the comments in the press, so maybe I am missing something.

It's more that he seems to spend a lot of time thinking about these things. He needs to be thinking about making fewer mistakes, and finding more speed in the car so he can regain the championship need. God only knows why he's thinking about boxing

"I think about Muhammad Ali," Hamilton told BBC Sport.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula-one/28147502

He also regularly "writes" a column for the BBC (it's probably dictated and written by someone else). I question how relevant this is, ti's normally something retired drivers do.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/28111358

I mean look at all this drivel:-
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/27526301
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/27530327

How many other drivers are writing columns, tweeting, instagramming, etc. at the same volume ???

EDIT: He's also over-driving at the moment. I just watched him doing a flying lap in practice, he's throwing the car in to corners with too much speed and running wide, missing apexs, he's looking like a rookie!

Still faster than Rosberg though. I don't think he has done much wrong this year in terms of driving, he lost out twice because of car failures, was unlucky not to get another shot in Monaco as well. Obviously screwed up in Austria but really saved his bacon there.

[WaikeCU]

Looks more like Hamilton needs more adapting than Rosberg to this years regulation changes, because as it looks the car isn't capable of handling Hamilton's driving style at the moment. I honestly think this is the way the sport is heading. It's not about pushing things to the limit anymore, but the words 'manage' and 'save' are mentioned more often nowadays. If you tell both drivers not the hold back and just push knowing that parts on the car won't fail, then I think Hamilton would be quicker.

[SiLo]

Looks more like Hamilton needs more adapting than Rosberg to this years regulation changes, because as it looks the car isn't capable of handling Hamilton's driving style at the moment. I honestly think this is the way the sport is heading. It's not about pushing things to the limit anymore, but the words 'manage' and 'save' are mentioned more often nowadays. If you tell both drivers not the hold back and just push knowing that parts on the car won't fail, then I think Hamilton would be quicker.

I miss the days where they would be pushing like crazy almost all the time. So much is about managing now. The only reason we see more overtaking is because of drivers abilities to manage.

For a sport that regards itself as the fastest, it's doing a lot to discount it.

[Shakeman]

I honestly doubt that unfortunate comments in the press will affect the performance on the track. However, I can very well imagine that it goes the other way, that the performance on the track affects the comments made to the press. But I can't say I am too focused on the comments in the press, so maybe I am missing something.

It's more that he seems to spend a lot of time thinking about these things. He needs to be thinking about making fewer mistakes, and finding more speed in the car so he can regain the championship need. God only knows why he's thinking about boxing

"I think about Muhammad Ali," Hamilton told BBC Sport.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula-one/28147502

He also regularly "writes" a column for the BBC (it's probably dictated and written by someone else). I question how relevant this is, ti's normally something retired drivers do.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/28111358

I mean look at all this drivel:-
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/27526301
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/27530327

How many other drivers are writing columns, tweeting, instagramming, etc. at the same volume ???

EDIT: He's also over-driving at the moment. I just watched him doing a flying lap in practice, he's throwing the car in to corners with too much speed and running wide, missing apexs, he's looking like a rookie!

Have you actually considered the social media activity Lewis is involved with may actually be a contractual obligation and may also be a compromise to get him off all those meet n greet junkets that he so despises? His fan base is surely younger than those normally attending corporate hospitality events.

If you're being fair you'd be criticising Rosberg for not being further ahead of a driver who had 2 DNFs. Imagine if the roles were reversed and Lewis was ahead by the same margin wouldn't he be copping the flack?

[SectorOne]

I think Hamilton needs to get on with driving and stop making constant comments in the press. At monaco it was about being more hungry than Rosberg, because of his "hard" upbringing. This week its comparisons to Ali. When was the last time Rosberg was quoted in the press saying anything like this? Hamilton is his own worst enemy at the moment.

Here´s another option:

Stop reading it, you obviously spend more time thinking about Hamilton then Hamilton himself.
It´s like you´re his lifecoach, teacher in how to go fast and his headshrink all at the same time.

Relax, take a chill pill and enjoy one hell of a season between two incredibly quick drivers.

[i70q7m7ghw]

I think Hamilton needs to get on with driving and stop making constant comments in the press. At monaco it was about being more hungry than Rosberg, because of his "hard" upbringing. This week its comparisons to Ali. When was the last time Rosberg was quoted in the press saying anything like this? Hamilton is his own worst enemy at the moment.

Here´s another option:

Stop reading it, you obviously spend more time thinking about Hamilton then Hamilton himself.

I don't need to read it to see it. It's always headline news when he says something.

Let's see what happens this weekend. Based on recent events I predict another Rosberg victory. Lets not forget, before his retirement Hamilton was not exactly winning by miles. Rosberg has had the advantage since he ruffled Hamilton's feathers in Monaco, and he will continue to do so until Hamilton focuses on the job in hand.