2015 Testing Comparative Performance Speculation Thread

[Coefficient]

They haven't even tickled this [Mercedes] car yet. At the last test or in Melbourne qualifying they will do a lap time that will utterly demoralise the opposition. I could be wrong but I doubt it.

[Dixo]

"For sure, yes. Definitely our eyes are wide open at the moment," Rosberg said when asked whether Ferrari was a threat for victories.

"It's clear that the others have really stepped up their game, [the] lap times are surprising to us. In relation it seems Ferrari has made the biggest step at the moment."

Nice to hear that, hope its true [-o<

[eniacon]

"For sure, yes. Definitely our eyes are wide open at the moment," Rosberg said when asked whether Ferrari was a threat for victories.

"It's clear that the others have really stepped up their game, [the] lap times are surprising to us. In relation it seems Ferrari has made the biggest step at the moment."

Nice to hear that, hope its true [-o<

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that I don't think Mercedes will win Drivers Championship this year, especially if the history of this team is anything to go by. In it's former guises they did build good cars, great cars in fact (BGP 001, W05 etc).
However, their rate of development relative to other teams hasn't been the best a la 2009 when Red Bull, McLaren caught up ad overtook them and eventually in 2010 Red Bull, McLaren and Ferrari left them in their mirrors (granted it was mainly due to aero and not the combo of aero and PU)
This time round its the 2nd year of a new generation of tech regs, when all the teams are up to speed with pitfalls and what can be improved upon. I would expect to see RBR, Ferrari matching Mercedes by end of Summer break.
Agree/disagree that's fine, but that's my 2 cents.

[Jordan44]

"For sure, yes. Definitely our eyes are wide open at the moment," Rosberg said when asked whether Ferrari was a threat for victories.

"It's clear that the others have really stepped up their game, [the] lap times are surprising to us. In relation it seems Ferrari has made the biggest step at the moment."

Nice to hear that, hope its true [-o<

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that I don't think Mercedes will win Drivers Championship this year, especially if the history of this team is anything to go by. In it's former guises they did build good cars, great cars in fact (BGP 001, W05 etc).
However, their rate of development relative to other teams hasn't been the best a la 2009 when Red Bull, McLaren caught up ad overtook them and eventually in 2010 Red Bull, McLaren and Ferrari left them in their mirrors (granted it was mainly due to aero and not the combo of aero and PU)
This time round its the 2nd year of a new generation of tech regs, when all the teams are up to speed with pitfalls and what can be improved upon. I would expect to see RBR, Ferrari matching Mercedes by end of Summer break.
Agree/disagree that's fine, but that's my 2 cents.

It's a different team from 2009, Lowe, Costa and Cowell should have a big impact. Many were impressed by the development package Mercedes stuck by last year.

I don't think Red Bull's 4 back to back titles is all down to them being extremely good at development. Yes it helped. No one ever quite masted the EBD the way Red Bull did if the rumours are true, hence they kept an advantage for a long time. If Mercedes keep their engine advantage and no one matches them, I can see it being the same.

[Chene_Mostert]

Actually, after the EBD ban RB did not have a coanda exhaust solution in place, Merc, McLaren and Ferrari all started with a Coanda exhaust.
RB managed to develop from scratch, and ended up out developing the others within the season...
The only reason Mercedes managed to maintain their 2014 advantage was due to the "protection" offered to them by the FIA mandated engine "freeze" rule. If PU developments were allowed, things would have been much closer from mid season..

[Chene_Mostert]

They haven't even tickled this [Mercedes] car yet. At the last test or in Melbourne qualifying they will do a lap time that will utterly demoralise the opposition. I could be wrong but I doubt it.

But looking at the condition of the right rear tyre on The W06 it seems to have taken quite a bit of punishment - does not suggest too much "sandbagging"?
So maybe you should seriously consider that you will be wrong.

[Juzh]

"For sure, yes. Definitely our eyes are wide open at the moment," Rosberg said when asked whether Ferrari was a threat for victories.

"It's clear that the others have really stepped up their game, [the] lap times are surprising to us. In relation it seems Ferrari has made the biggest step at the moment."

Nice to hear that, hope its true [-o<

Rosberg said the same last year after bahrain tests.

[Richard]

It could end up like Red Bull in recent years. Let the competition stay tantalisingly close in testing then zoom off in Melbourne.

[turbof1]

They haven't even tickled this car yet. At the last test or in Melbourne qualifying they will do a lap time that will utterly demoralise the opposition. I could be wrong but I doubt it.

But looking at the condition of the right rear tyre on The W06 it seems to have taken quite a bit of punishment - does not suggest too much "sandbagging"?
So maybe you should seriously consider that you will be wrong.

Image for reference:
http://octanephotos.co.uk/gallery/2015- ... 1L6613.jpg
Hard to say on a circuit and conditions where Pirelli brings special winter tyres. Look pretty ok to me to be honest, just some blistering on the contact surface due tyre not getting on temperature.

[Jordan44]

They haven't even tickled this car yet. At the last test or in Melbourne qualifying they will do a lap time that will utterly demoralise the opposition. I could be wrong but I doubt it.

But looking at the condition of the right rear tyre on The W06 it seems to have taken quite a bit of punishment - does not suggest too much "sandbagging"?
So maybe you should seriously consider that you will be wrong.

I'm not sure how the punishment of the tyre shows if they're sandbagging or not. Rather than a few quick laps it could have been a load of slower laps and the tyre would take the same beating in the end.

[Juzh]

It could end up like Red Bull in recent years. Let the competition stay tantalisingly close in testing then zoom off in Melbourne.

Much like mercedes in 2014. Seems like they're confident enough they don't need to do quali runs.

[dren]

Yeah, doesn't look that bad at all based on conditions.

I will be utterly surprised if all the teams make up the huge deficit that Mercedes had last year. It wasn't all engine, they had a good chassis, too. I expect Mercedes to be just like Red Bull was the last few years, just like Richard said above.

[Spoutnik]

It seems like, many people here think the 2014 Mercedes domination it's the result of the best PU. (Only)

On the rain of Suzuka, Mercedes proove at each other they aerodynamic and chassis superiority. Vettel finish 22sec behind Hamilton !
They found a solution for the tyres issues, I take the same exemple than before : Hamilton on worn Supersoft tyre create 25sec pit window against RB on fresh hard tyres. Rosberg achieve 99% of the race at Sotchi on one set of medium tyres (56 Laps).

Obvioulsy, it was possible to missed the conception of a car, but with very similar regulations and the big ressources of team plus the proximity between Brackley and Brixworth, Mercedes seems difficult to beat. BUT that will be closer, and if the rivalry between Hamilton and Rosberg turn to a fight, they can lost may point, point for the challengers..

[Jordan44]

It seems like, many people here think the 2014 Mercedes domination it's the result of the best PU. (Only)

On the rain of Suzuka, Mercedes proove at each other they aerodynamic and chassis superiority. Vettel finish 22sec behind Hamilton !
They found a solution for the tyres issues, I take the same exemple than before : Hamilton on worn Supersoft tyre create 25sec pit window against RB on fresh hard tyres. Rosberg achieve 99% of the race at Sotchi on one set of medium tyres (56 Laps).

Obvioulsy, it was possible to missed the conception of a car, but with very similar regulations and the big ressources of team plus the proximity between Brackley and Brixworth, Mercedes seems difficult to beat. BUT that will be closer, and if the rivalry between Hamilton and Rosberg turn to a fight, they can lost may point, point for the challengers..

People also forget that in the first half of the season in 2013 Mercedes had the fastest car on one lap and the most downforce, the only thing that stopped them winning more races was the dreadful tyre wear, which they've since fixed. I can't remember for the life of me who it was but I remember someone said that the work and research Mercedes did on Pirelli tyres was very impressive. They're a very capable team, and the nearest challenger to Red Bull in 2013.

I have every confidence that with Lowe, Costa, Cowell and all the other boffins, they'll carry their success into next year. Hybrid and KERS system are their strong point, we first saw this with McLaren in 2011, but not only this, they've got the chassis right. If they don't start 2015 with a sizeable advantage, I'm sure the finger will be pointed within the team at the new management.

[Chene_Mostert]

It seems like, many people here think the 2014 Mercedes domination it's the result of the best PU. (Only)

On the rain of Suzuka, Mercedes proove at each other they aerodynamic and chassis superiority. Vettel finish 22sec behind Hamilton !
They found a solution for the tyres issues, I take the same exemple than before : Hamilton on worn Supersoft tyre create 25sec pit window against RB on fresh hard tyres. Rosberg achieve 99% of the race at Sotchi on one set of medium tyres (56 Laps).

Obvioulsy, it was possible to missed the conception of a car, but with very similar regulations and the big ressources of team plus the proximity between Brackley and Brixworth, Mercedes seems difficult to beat. BUT that will be closer, and if the rivalry between Hamilton and Rosberg turn to a fight, they can lost may point, point for the challengers..

Spoutnik it's not what I think but what I know Merc Dominance was only down to their PU advantage.

PU advantage:
1. Power advantage = speed, acceleration also allows running more df - makes chassis and aero look good.

2. MGU-K power deployment = faster and smoother power delivery helps tyre life in acceleration situations, increases acceleration, makes car more drivable in wet conditions = makes chassis and aero look good.

MGU-K harvesting = better brake stability - makes chassis and aero look good,

So yes, All of merc's superiority is down to the PU advantage.
Newey also says Engines are too dominant.
Also what does the proximity of Brixworth to Brackley have to do with merc advantage?
Ferrari chassis and engine plant is 322 meters apart, would this make them the dominant team?