Is it worth developing?

[godlameroso]

With the advantage that Mercedes currently holds, do any of you think that they could get away with not developing the car through the year and still maintain their advantage? Or maybe stop developing the car say midway through the season to focus on next years? In a way such an advantage benefits Mercedes because it also has the luxury of lowering development costs since they're already 1.3 seconds/lap ahead. Even a half second/lap advantage is huge, but maybe it would make Mercedes burn up it's tyres and even things out a bit.

[SiLo]

This is the exact reason they are this far ahead this year. They could start to focus more on the 2015 car much earlier than others because they had such a pace advantage last year. Basically if you get a pace advantage, it then carries over into next year unless you royally screw it up (See: McLaren).

[Jolle]

With more or less stable rules and the limit on cfd and wind tunnel time, we will see more evolutions then revolutions year over year. So I think most teams will keep developing the current design with a bit more effort during the winter, but no big changes in the basic philosophy.

You can see this very well in the MP4-30 with the size zero design. They knew it's not worth the effort now and even works against them (with cooling and repaiability around the engine bay) but they don't have the time to come up,with a whole new design in one or two years (I even believe that the extra cooling on top will be removed when the PU is better under control).

So, for 2016, bit of with there, bit of shaving here, but for the most parts they will look just like the 2015 cars.

[Rikhart]

They are not "1.3 seconds" ahead, real number is probably less than 7 tenths in race trim. In melbourne they already had fuel conservation issues by the end, and ferrari, who were stuck behind williams, were not that far behind.

[ScottB]

They are not "1.3 seconds" ahead, real number is probably less than 7 tenths in race trim. In melbourne they already had fuel conservation issues by the end, and ferrari, who were stuck behind williams, were not that far behind.

Assuming they were running at full tilt, which is certainly something that's up for debate.

[Manoah2u]

They are not "1.3 seconds" ahead, real number is probably less than 7 tenths in race trim. In melbourne they already had fuel conservation issues by the end, and ferrari, who were stuck behind williams, were not that far behind.

Assuming they were running at full tilt, which is certainly something that's up for debate.

rosberg had to run more conservative because his fuel use was becoming critical. if fuel thus was critical,
then they could not have run 'much' harder because it would have meant getting stranded before the finishline.

in other words; Mercedes' pace in melbourne could have been their maximum potential, whilst Ferrari might not have been at their full tilt knowing they were caught behind williams thus cost them precious time. In the meanwhile, they were advancing towards Mercedes despite one Ferrari DNF due to pitstop error.

I am thoroughly expecting Ferrari will be much closer to Mercedes compared to Williams last year. Remember Rosberg being unhappy on finding out Bottas' Williams was becoming an issue? Don't remember which race but it was one of the later ones in the season.

Ferrari has the benefit they're not politically bound to Mercedes and Toto's demands compared to Williams.

When the moment is there, Mercedes might allow Williams a win or two during a full season. But there is no way Mercedes is going to permit Williams becoming a threat to their WCC and WDC prospects.

Ferrari, on the other hand, has the freedom to unleash the fiery horse. It's highly unlikely their engine and package is sufficient to beat Mercedes' in a straight WCC fight - but i can see them reaching real close by the end of the year.

Here is where Mercedes is going to have to use their tokens to keep their advantage, or become the hunted.

[SectorOne]

When the moment is there, Mercedes might allow Williams a win or two during a full season. But there is no way Mercedes is going to permit Williams becoming a threat to their WCC and WDC prospects.

Just cut the bullsh*t.

[Andres125sx]

They are not "1.3 seconds" ahead, real number is probably less than 7 tenths in race trim. In melbourne they already had fuel conservation issues by the end, and ferrari, who were stuck behind williams, were not that far behind.

Only 34 seconds...

[McMrocks]

They are not "1.3 seconds" ahead, real number is probably less than 7 tenths in race trim. In melbourne they already had fuel conservation issues by the end, and ferrari, who were stuck behind williams, were not that far behind.

Only 34 seconds...

After 55laps (58 minus 3 laps behind the SC): 34s/55laps= 0,61818s/lap

We don't know how much LH and NR were cruising so... lets say the gap in race trim is less than 1s/lap

[MOWOG]

Until you know with absolute certainty what amount of fuel each car started the race with, no useful conclusions can be drawn about fuel usage and performance. In the absence of knowledge, we assume that every car starts every race with the maximum fuel load and we all know what they say about the word "assume," don't we, lads?

[Andres125sx]

They are not "1.3 seconds" ahead, real number is probably less than 7 tenths in race trim. In melbourne they already had fuel conservation issues by the end, and ferrari, who were stuck behind williams, were not that far behind.

Only 34 seconds...

After 55laps (58 minus 3 laps behind the SC): 34s/55laps= 0,61818s/lap

We don't know how much LH and NR were cruising so... lets say the gap in race trim is less than 1s/lap

No, we can say the gap in race trim is a minimum of 0,6s/lap, but we don´t know if it´s much higher because any team dominating so much don´t push their PU to the limit, it would be absurd

[dans79]

Until you know with absolute certainty what amount of fuel each car started the race with, no useful conclusions can be drawn about fuel usage and performance. In the absence of knowledge, we assume that every car starts every race with the maximum fuel load and we all know what they say about the word "assume," don't we, lads?

This, plus knowing it was going to be a one stop race, they might have fueled even lighter than necessary to be as gentle as possible on the tires.

we won't really know what the teams are capable of, until we get a dry, multi stop race, at a low fuel usage track.

[Jolle]

Until you know with absolute certainty what amount of fuel each car started the race with, no useful conclusions can be drawn about fuel usage and performance. In the absence of knowledge, we assume that every car starts every race with the maximum fuel load and we all know what they say about the word "assume," don't we, lads?

This, plus knowing it was going to be a one stop race, they might have fueled even lighter than necessary to be as gentle as possible on the tires.

we won't really know what the teams are capable of, until we get a dry, multi stop race, at a low fuel usage track.

Stil, with the 4 pu's a year true ultimate pace in a race is something we won't see, they will constantly (especially early in the season) trying to get a balance between pace and durability in reference to threir opponents. In other words, try to beat them with as less effort as possible. The first race it was pretty clear (for Ferrari for instance) that Mercedes was unreachable, RedBull wasn't going to be a problem so they only had massa as an rival. They probably tuned the PU so they would just beat him. For Mercedes this would mean they, with a very conservative engine mapping, are still way in the lead... If they go to 100%...

[Moose]

Only 34 seconds...

After 55laps (58 minus 3 laps behind the SC): 34s/55laps= 0,61818s/lap

We don't know how much LH and NR were cruising so... lets say the gap in race trim is less than 1s/lap

No, we can say the gap in race trim is a minimum of 0,6s/lap, but we don´t know if it´s much higher because any team dominating so much don´t push their PU to the limit, it would be absurd

You mean a maximum. We know Mercedes were running about as fast as they could, because they were fuel constraint. We know Ferrari were held up.

That means that the race pace gap is at most 0.6 seconds a lap at Australia.

[SectorOne]

We know Mercedes were running about as fast as they could, because they were fuel constraint.

I would say we know that Rosberg was running about as fast as he could.
Because he´s second he´s always gonna go as fast as he can.

But for Hamilton it was a case of "You don´t have to be faster then the bear, you only need to be faster then the slowest guy".