Mclaren Honda 2015

[WaikeCU]

2016 Mclaren is going to fly.

Sounds like hope, rather than expectation.

I would call it dreaming, really. Certainly my dream too, but nothing more than that, I like to be realistic.

Dreams it is.

[Thunder]

Some tweets dug up over at Autorsport about the Race in China.
https://twitter.com/F1sMyDrug/status/587566499537231872 https://twitter.com/F1sMyDrug/status/587567369209393152 https://twitter.com/F1sMyDrug/status/587567493641871360 https://twitter.com/RoboCoP_G/status/587569021370916865

[bhall II]

Shades of Domenicali-era Ferrari...

Boullier interwiew on speedweek:

Are there any new parts in Bahrain?
Yes, we improve the overall package before each GP, as with new aero parts, or new mechanical developments. Our program includes many intermediate steps. Here in Shanghai we arrived with new underbody, a new panel, a new front wing and new brake ducts. In Bahrain we will see further developments on both the mechanical and aero on the page. We have practically every GP a new car. "

Q: Jenson, another disappointing qualifying, and after it had looked pretty promising yesterday...

Jenson Button: Yeah! We've made some good improvements yesterday, but qualifying wasn't for us today, for a few reasons. I don't know why.

Q: The reality though is that you were actually only a few tenths off making it through to Q2 - and that looks like a step forward...

JB: Yes, it does - but the reality is also that we had hoped to be closer to the top ten. Not being in the top ten, but closer. I didn’t manage the perfect lap, but even if I had it wouldn’t have helped us much. So I am a bit surprised. It shows you have to be more competitive. In practice we’ve seemed quite competitive - maybe we ran a bit less fuel than other people, but I would be surprised if that was the case. I really don’t know why we didn’t find more pace today.

I think one of the best ways to make a problem worse is to throw solutions at it without a thorough understanding of the expected results, because even the gains can be misleading. If Ferrari from roughly 2009 to 2014 doesn't stand as a decent warning, just look at Red Bull and Renault right now to see what can happen if any urge to cut corners for quick gains overwhelms the inescapable necessity to completely address everything.

A realistic assessment of a problem and its resultant competitive limitations can also open up the door to strategies that may not seem obvious at first. As an example, I'm not quite sure I understand McLaren/Honda's PU strategy thus far, given the following: if the penalty for using more than the allotted number of PUs over the course of a season is to be docked grid places, and if the current need for reliability requires the PUs to be detuned to such a degree that the cars qualify dead-last anyway, then there is effectively no penalty for using as many PUs as you want. So, wouldn't it then make sense to push the PU to the limit every time in order to work out its problems?

Even though I think the current situation at McLaren is probably better than it was during the dark days at Ferrari, I still think it would probably behoove the team to abandon any hopes of being competitive this season. First and foremost, I think the goal should just be to figure out the car. Anything beyond that is a bonus.

[Andres125sx]

if the penalty for using more than the allotted number of PUs over the course of a season is to be docked grid places, and if the current need for reliability requires the PUs to be detuned to such a degree that the cars qualify dead-last anyway, then there is effectively no penalty for using as many PUs as you want. So, wouldn't it then make sense to push the PU to the limit every time in order to work out its problems?

That´d be true if the penalties would be applied now, but not the case, they will be applied when all the allocations have been used. This means when they start to be competitive at the second half of the season with the reliability issues sorted out, then they´d be penalized for using more allocations than allowed when they were far from competitive (now), what doesn´t make sense

Better assume now you´re not competitive and will be at the back of the grid, but do not compromise your chances when you´re competitive later in the season

[hollus]

Weird, I read Alonso after FP2 saying this is all very well, but you will see us falling behind in Q as everyone else will use their most aggressive maps and modes, which we won't do. I guess Button missed that meeting?
Regarding the PU penalties, even more baffling is that the penalty for that new PU would only apply for the first race, leaving you penalty-less for races 2, 3, 4 and 5 of the expected PU life. Smells to me of design by committee, being both cautious and aggressive early in the season while preparing to be both cautious and aggressive later in the season, i.e. prepare now for not having PU penalties later when the monster PU appears (which apparently it will do while untested). It is almost like if they are aiming for 1 win and only 1 win in 2015, very late, when they should be preparing for 2016. Weird...

[bhall II]

That´d be true if the penalties would be applied now, but not the case, they will be applied when all the allocations have been used. This means when they start to be competitive at the second half of the season with the reliability issues sorted out, then they´d be penalized for using more allocations than allowed when they were far from competitive (now), what doesn´t make sense

Better assume now you´re not competitive and will be at the back of the grid, but do not compromise your chances when you´re competitive later in the season

The package will never be competitive this season, even if by some outlandish miracle it winds up being the fastest car in the field, because the damage done to the team's points tally is already fatal. This season is over for McLaren, and the sooner they recognize that, the sooner they can put themselves on the path to recovery.

EDIT:

It is almost like if they are aiming for 1 win and only 1 win in 2015, very late, when they should be preparing for 2016. Weird...

I think weird is definitely a good word for it.

[windwaves]

good to see some good reasoning here finally !!!

Indeed the season is over in terms of results but I claim it was over already after pre-season testing. As I said then, impossible to recover from the massive data gap accumulated then as they were just unable to complete more than a couple of laps. Hence this season is becoming a data recovering effort as both drivers have suggested on a few occasions.

I agree with bhall II, goal should be figure out the car and also accumulate experience with the PU.

What dark days at Ferrari are you referring to btw, bhall, at first I thought the SD sad leadership years, but then it would all make no sense ?

Patience patience

[Miguel]

The package will never be competitive this season, even if by some outlandish miracle it winds up being the fastest car in the field, because the damage done to the team's points tally is already fatal. This season is over for McLaren, and the sooner they recognize that, the sooner they can put themselves on the path to recovery.

EDIT:

It is almost like if they are aiming for 1 win and only 1 win in 2015, very late, when they should be preparing for 2016. Weird...

I think weird is definitely a good word for it.

I disagree with that. I strongly believe McLaren should not abandon 2015. First of all, since they're using a new aerodynamic philosophy this year, they must learn as much as they can from the car. Since testing is banned, it is during the season that they will be able to test/race/develop newer parts or setup in a more effective fashion. Doing so openly is not ideal, but it certainly seems better than completely abandon the package, and only appear a year later with a CDF/windtunnel model produced after they effectively learnt nothing from 2015.

Another reason is money. The points distribution is exponential with a cutoff. If, for some reason, their car turns out to be very competitive for the last few races, they'll be able to climb many positions in the WCC, and get more prize money. How much could they climb? On ideal circumstances, the third best team can expect to score 18 points per race. Two races like that would give (~75% chance) McLaren 8th spot on the WCC [1]. Scoring 100 points (essentially 5 good races) would give them about 50% chance to be 6th. That would be just one spot worse than last year, which began with a double podium finish.

What about an outlandish result? If the season turns out to be 2011'ish (3 reliable teams massively faster than everything else), 200 points might just give them 4th spot. This, however, requires McLaren to be essentially the 2nd fastest (and no worse than 3rd) team for the second half of the year.

Finally, there's the PR part of it. If they abandon the season and spend the whole year dangling with Q1, it will be an absolute disaster. Say bye bye to any wild dreams of sponsorship. However, a good comeback could actually give them some good exposure.

[GPR-A duplicate2]

The package will never be competitive this season, even if by some outlandish miracle it winds up being the fastest car in the field, because the damage done to the team's points tally is already fatal. This season is over for McLaren, and the sooner they recognize that, the sooner they can put themselves on the path to recovery.

EDIT:

It is almost like if they are aiming for 1 win and only 1 win in 2015, very late, when they should be preparing for 2016. Weird...

I think weird is definitely a good word for it.

I disagree with that. I strongly believe McLaren should not abandon 2015. First of all, since they're using a new aerodynamic philosophy this year, they must learn as much as they can from the car. Since testing is banned, it is during the season that they will be able to test/race/develop newer parts or setup in a more effective fashion. Doing so openly is not ideal, but it certainly seems better than completely abandon the package, and only appear a year later with a CDF/windtunnel model produced after they effectively learnt nothing from 2015.

Another reason is money. The points distribution is exponential with a cutoff. If, for some reason, their car turns out to be very competitive for the last few races, they'll be able to climb many positions in the WCC, and get more prize money. How much could they climb? On ideal circumstances, the third best team can expect to score 18 points per race. Two races like that would give (~75% chance) McLaren 8th spot on the WCC [1]. Scoring 100 points (essentially 5 good races) would give them about 50% chance to be 6th. That would be just one spot worse than last year, which began with a double podium finish.

What about an outlandish result? If the season turns out to be 2011'ish (3 reliable teams massively faster than everything else), 200 points might just give them 4th spot. This, however, requires McLaren to be essentially the 2nd fastest (and no worse than 3rd) team for the second half of the year.

Finally, there's the PR part of it. If they abandon the season and spend the whole year dangling with Q1, it will be an absolute disaster. Say bye bye to any wild dreams of sponsorship. However, a good comeback could actually give them some good exposure.

For McLaren, in all honesty, this is a long pre-season testing, for 2016.

[windwaves]

The package will never be competitive this season, even if by some outlandish miracle it winds up being the fastest car in the field, because the damage done to the team's points tally is already fatal. This season is over for McLaren, and the sooner they recognize that, the sooner they can put themselves on the path to recovery.

EDIT:

It is almost like if they are aiming for 1 win and only 1 win in 2015, very late, when they should be preparing for 2016. Weird...

I think weird is definitely a good word for it.

I disagree with that. I strongly believe McLaren should not abandon 2015. First of all, since they're using a new aerodynamic philosophy this year, they must learn as much as they can from the car. Since testing is banned, it is during the season that they will be able to test/race/develop newer parts or setup in a more effective fashion. Doing so openly is not ideal, but it certainly seems better than completely abandon the package, and only appear a year later with a CDF/windtunnel model produced after they effectively learnt nothing from 2015.

Another reason is money. The points distribution is exponential with a cutoff. If, for some reason, their car turns out to be very competitive for the last few races, they'll be able to climb many positions in the WCC, and get more prize money. How much could they climb? On ideal circumstances, the third best team can expect to score 18 points per race. Two races like that would give (~75% chance) McLaren 8th spot on the WCC [1]. Scoring 100 points (essentially 5 good races) would give them about 50% chance to be 6th. That would be just one spot worse than last year, which began with a double podium finish.

What about an outlandish result? If the season turns out to be 2011'ish (3 reliable teams massively faster than everything else), 200 points might just give them 4th spot. This, however, requires McLaren to be essentially the 2nd fastest (and no worse than 3rd) team for the second half of the year.

Finally, there's the PR part of it. If they abandon the season and spend the whole year dangling with Q1, it will be an absolute disaster. Say bye bye to any wild dreams of sponsorship. However, a good comeback could actually give them some good exposure.

I do not think anyone here is suggesting McL should abandon the season. I think the idea is to actually utilize the rest of the season for testing, learn and gain experience, in preparation for the next season. Thinking differently, i.e. looking for perfomance/results as soon as possible, risks compromising them even more.

[windwaves]

For McLaren, in all honesty, this is a long pre-season testing, for 2016.

exactly and that is because they failed to be ready all together when they were supposed to be, that is, at pre-season testing. Oh well.

[bhall II]

What dark days at Ferrari are you referring to btw, bhall, at first I thought the SD sad leadership years, but then it would all make no sense ?

Domenicali's tenure at Ferrari was marked by a tendency to repeatedly throw everything but fundamental solutions at fundamental problems that actually required fundamental solutions. In other words, they often tried to use band-aids to heal broken bones, or they treated the symptoms instead of the disease.

If a component didn't work immediately as intended, it was replaced again and again until the desired result was more or less achieved. This was done in lieu of investigating and addressing the actual root of any given problem, because the team's "win now" culture didn't allow anyone to take a long view of problems that might require some time to remedy. The net result is that nothing was ever truly fixed, and problems carried over from year to year.

Despite the team's ongoing issues, Boullier's comments about bringing new components to every race - "We have practically every GP a new car" - smacks of the same mentality.

To be fair, though, none of this is to say such a strategy cannot possibly work for McLaren, but it's nonetheless very, very easy to find yourself completely lost in the woods after you finally truly fix a fundamental problem and then discover that everything else you've done was misguided as a result of the same misunderstanding(s) that contributed to the existence of the fundamental problem in the first place.

The solution then is to serve one master, and one master only: fix the car. To try to fix the car and win at the same time tends to delay both goals. (Ferrari's recent turnaround required sacrificing the better part of last season and a relatively conservative start to this season in order to address lingering deficiencies that had built up over the years.)

[windwaves]

gotcha, thanks.
Tend to agree on the SD inability to get it done, his lack of leadership quite incredible.

I am skeptical though to view McL today in a better shape than Ferrari during the SD years, I mean, Ferrari was up there always, just not getting the title. Now, for McL I guess it is a bit premature, we would have to see over a few years, to be fair. I believe in this team, and even more so in light of the disastreous start of the season. It should give them real anger/hanger

[Postmoe]

That´d be true if the penalties would be applied now, but not the case, they will be applied when all the allocations have been used. This means when they start to be competitive at the second half of the season with the reliability issues sorted out, then they´d be penalized for using more allocations than allowed when they were far from competitive (now), what doesn´t make sense

Better assume now you´re not competitive and will be at the back of the grid, but do not compromise your chances when you´re competitive later in the season

The package will never be competitive this season, even if by some outlandish miracle it winds up being the fastest car in the field, because the damage done to the team's points tally is already fatal. This season is over for McLaren, and the sooner they recognize that, the sooner they can put themselves on the path to recovery.

EDIT:

It is almost like if they are aiming for 1 win and only 1 win in 2015, very late, when they should be preparing for 2016. Weird...

I think weird is definitely a good word for it.

Taking into account how heavily software dependent those cars are I would avoid at all costs to fall into your pesimism.

The car seems full of gremlins and lacking data. I would be cautious when talking about competitiveness because it's a very big PC they are setting up and fine tunning.

As a very stupid and simplistic paralellism, my last rig needed some days of gremlim depuration with CPU temps rising up and down absurdly until I changed the power source and cooling, set up the bios and other stuff. It was a combination of factors and the whole hardware/software thing depended on my amateurish comprehension of how the different factors where interlinked. Once you get to understand the issues, which is done changing materials until it works, it works just fine and at a 100%.

Same thing could happen to Mclaren.

[Mesteño]

Might this be the real gap? Probably not, but not less interesting.