Championship permutations

[turbof1]

If Lewis wins next race with Rosberg finishing second, Lewis can finish as low as 4th each race after Russia.

Rosberg in the meanwhile is again in the position where he does not control his own faith. After Monza, this was already true but due the dnf in Singapore he pushed that line back. However, he's now back into the same position.

Also very important is that if Mercedes takes atleast 3 more points then Ferrari next race, they will have sealed the WCC.

[i70q7m7ghw]

Rosberg can only hope for a DNF from Hamilton now, and he needs to maximise it when it happens. Hamilton's only DNF so far came in Singapore, where Merc were off the pace and he didn't win. Whereas Rosberg's DNF was in Monza, where they were most dominant and Hamilton won getting the full 25 points.

Another DNF for Rosberg would almost certainly spell the end of his championship, if it happened at the next race and Hamilton won he would need 2 more points over Rosberg to win the WDC.

I think the key thing here though, is Rosberg needs to beat Hamilton in all of the remaining races AND ideally needs a Hamilton DNF, which seems very unlikely.

[Jolle]

The question now has to be: Will Hamilton have a bit of luck and have a big party in Austin or does he have to wait until Mexico.

[Phil]

To win the championship, one of the following scenarios will have to hold true:

post race 15 sochi >= 100
post race 16 united states >= 75
post race 17 mexico >= 50
post race 18 brazil >= 25

So even if Rosberg has a DNF at Sochi, he will not have enough points to seal the WDC on paper. United States is a close one, as the required gap would be 75 points and it being 48 now, makes it technically possible, though I think unlikely given the strength and consistency of Mercedes. I think both Hamilton and Rosberg finishing on the podium is very likely, so the point difference per race is 7-10 points. With two races that can likely either extend to 68 (two wins, Rosberg 3rd) which wouldn't be enough.

I personally think Hamilton might win the WDC with 2 races left. For that to happen, the point difference will need to be 50 points by post race Mexico. For that to happen, he would require 2 wins and a solid 3th place finish (+14 and -10 assuming Rosberg comes 2nd and wins the race Hamilton comes in 4th = 52 points gap).

If he doesn't I think it'll be important to seal it in Brazil, as going into the last race in light of a possible DNF will only up the tension.

IMO, a DNF or technical issue could really spice up things as the closer the gap comes, especially after such a big points gap, the more he will be under pressure. Pressure = more mistakes. So I wouldn't take it for granted, even if the outlook is very promising for Lewis at this point.

[emaren]

At the moment there are 125 points available to the person(s) that win the next five races.

From a Hamilton perspective.....

If Hamilton wins any three of the last five, he wins the championship, because he limits the scoring of Rosberg/Vettel to 18 points maximum in those three races. Three hamilton wins and two DNFs gives him 352 points, If Rosberg came in second in the three races that Hamilton wins, and then wins the two from which Hamilton retires, his maximum score, assuming he wins two is 333 points.

If Hamilton wins two, with Rosberg taking the other three, Hamilton only needs 14 points from three races to win. So a second place and two DNF's would wrap it up for him. Or a 6th, 7th, DNF etc

If Hamilton wins one, with Rosberg winning all four of the remaining races, Hamilton would need 45 points from four races.

From a Rosberg perspective

If Rosberg wins all five races, he needs Hamilton to score less than 78 points over the last five races
- A single DNF for Hamilton would seal the deal for Rosberg
- Four Second places and a 7th wins it for Hamilton.
- Five Third places wins it for Hamilton

If Rosberg wins four and comes second in one
- Its complex, but Hamilton has to finish lower than second in at least two races and win none at all.
- If Hamilton wins one - then Rosberg has to rely on at least one DNF and a finish lower then second from Hamilton to win.
- If Hamilton wins none -

If Rosberg wins three and come second in two
- Again, complex, but Rosberg is reliant on Hamilton not winning and not scoring many points

[SectorOne]

If Hamilton wins any three of the last five, he wins the championship

No he only needs two wins and a third place to win the championship.

Assuming Rosberg finishes second in those two wins, then wins the remaining he will still lose out by 2 points.

So effectively Hamilton can get away with 2 DNF´s as long as he bags two wins and a third place.

[emaren]

If Hamilton wins any three of the last five, he wins the championship

No he only needs two wins and a third place to win the championship.

Assuming Rosberg finishes second in those two wins, then wins the remaining he will still lose out by 2 points.

So effectively Hamilton can get away with 2 DNF´s as long as he bags two wins and a third place.

Ahh yes, you are right - I was doing the maths in my head and did not do the permutation needed.

[Jolle]

Looking at the statistics of and that Rosberg can't improve his car (much) compared to Hamilton, Vettel is the only remaining real contender to Lewis his third WC.
Rosberg and Vettel both took away points from Hamilton in four races out of fourteen. From those four, Rosberg was only really faster in two of them (Spain and Austria), where Monaco was a bad pitstop call and Singapore was a DNF, where Vettels four races he was faster in three of them (Monaco being the odd one out again).

There are just a few things that can keep Hamilton off his third:
- Ferrari has some kind of miracle and gains 2 seconds
- Hamilton and Rosberg have 4 "senna-prost" moments in the last 5 races
- Hamilton breaks an arm, and then when he's recovered a leg
- Hamilton does something to get fired on the spot

Because the first three are very unlikely, the biggest chance for Vettel and Rosberg is for Lewis to something very very very stupid....

[GPR-A duplicate2]

I don't know how Vettel is still a contender.
1. Ferrari still have 4 tokens left that they would be definitely be using. So at some stage, they have to introduce a 5th PU and take penalty. So the race at which Vettel takes penalty, would clearly puts him out of any mathematical possibility.
2. 3 of the next 5 races are on power circuits and counting against a Mercedes would be foolishness.
3. Having won last year's championship after having come from behind and this year, leading the championship with almost 50 points, would put Lewis into a psychologically strong position.
4. I don't know when was the last time a championship leader, who had a lead of over 40 points after 2/3rd of a season, went on to lose the championship.

[Phil]

I'm going to take a different approach as to when and who becomes WDC:

Hamilton: 277 points / 14 races = 19.8 points per race
Rosberg: 229 points / 14 races = 16.4 points per race
Vettel: 218 points / 14 races = 15.6 points per race

If this trend continues, Hamilton will extend his gap by 3.4 points over Rosberg per race. Given that the available points sink with every GP remaining, that gap will be large enough by mexico to win the WDC for Hamilton (Hamilton = 336.4 pts, Rosberg = 278.2 pts / difference of 58.2 points at which 50 are still on the table with two races to go).

This might seem rather simple, but I think the other topic with the graphs started by Sector showed that Hamilton, Rosberg and Vettel have been pretty consistent overall this year, with no big ups or downs. Hamilton has always been leading, Rosberg always been steady second, and Vettel progressed quickly to 3rd where he stayed.

I'd draw up a nice graph showing the average performance and the drop of available points, but I'm too lazy. I hope the above was illustrative enough.


BTW: I think Sochi is going to be interesting. If Hamilton wins it, he'll look very comfortable. If Rosberg wins it, it might give him a much needed confidence boost to make it a bit exciting. Also as a reminder; 2007, Japanese GP, Hamilton was leading by 17 points vs Kimi who later won the WDC. That is nearly a 2 DNF lead (10 point system) at that point with 2 races to go. To think that a driver could still lose it... unimaginable (even though the point gap to Alonso in 2nd was 12 points). Hamilton then had a DNF (0 points) and a 7th in Brazil (2 points) only to lose the championship by two points. Back then, a DNF was also less costly at 10 points vs. 25 points now. Just to put things into perspective and to those who have written off this season already.

[SectorOne]

If Hamilton wins any three of the last five, he wins the championship

No he only needs two wins and a third place to win the championship.

Assuming Rosberg finishes second in those two wins, then wins the remaining he will still lose out by 2 points.

So effectively Hamilton can get away with 2 DNF´s as long as he bags two wins and a third place.

Ahh yes, you are right - I was doing the maths in my head and did not do the permutation needed.

You can use this to play around with different scenarios, i don´t trust my brain when it comes to math so i use it

http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/points-calculator/

[Richard]

Back then, a DNF was also less costly at 10 points vs. 25 points now.

No, the points distribution for the top 8 places are pretty much the same ratios as the previous system give or take rounding up/down.

Place ...1....2....3....4....5....6....7....8....9....10

1981–1990
Points...9 ......6 ......4 ........3 .....2 ......1
Ratio...36%.....4%....16% ....12% ....8% ....4% ....0% ....0% ....0% ....0%

1991–2002
Points...10 ......6....... 4 ...... 3....... 2....... 1
Ratio...38%....23%.....15%..... 12%..... 8% .....4% .....0% .....0%..... 0%..... 0%

2003–2009
Points...10...... 8......6.......5....... 4...... 3..... 2......1
Ratio...26%....21%....15%....13%....10%....8%....5%....3%....0%....0%

2010–2013
Points...25.....18......15.....12......10......8......6.....4......2.......1
Ratio...25%....18%....15%....12% ....10%....8%....6%....4%....2%....1%

[Moose]

What actually makes it much less costly now is the fact that there are 20ish races. A DNF today costs you 5% of your total championship points haul. A DNF back in the day cost you 8-10%.

[PlatinumZealot]

Hamilton will only need a 50 point lead after Mexico to snatch the stash. Therefore he only has to get a net gain of 2 points over Rosberg after Sochi, Austin and Mexico. To put a damper on the permutations Mercedes WILL finish 1-2 in these power tracks. So Hamilton simply needs to win any two of the races and come no lower than third in the other to guarantee the WDC won after Mexico.

[Just_a_fan]

Hamilton can afford to come second every race from here on in and still win the title. Rosberg (and Vettel I guess) needs Hamilton to suffer a big issue to stand a chance. If Hamilton pulls a couple of wins in the next two races then it's all over bar the shouting.