Championship permutations

[SectorOne]

He can afford to finish 3rd in all races but one where he must finish 2nd to win by one point.
Assuming Rosberg wins 5 races in a row.

[lebesset]

the real point is that lewis can , and should, go into cruise mode from here on in order to wrap up the WDC
question is , can he bring himself to do that , or will he want to keep winning ?

[Phil]

Cruise mode is dangerous because he might walk into the last race with a DNF or other technical issue...

[NathanOlder]

Lewis wont cruise, plus its dangerous. He will be all out for win, and aggressive. Its Nico that cant screw up, so Nico will be more likely to take it easy. Lewis will drive freely

[Just_a_fan]

Hamilton will want to win all 5 of the remaining races. This will ensure he dominates Rosberg at the end of the season (important for next year) but also would give him 13 wins in a season which would equal the record jointly held by Vettel and Schumacher.

Oh, and he's a racing driver and they don't, by default, aim to do anything other than win.

[iotar__]

Hamilton will want to win all 5 of the remaining races. This will ensure he dominates Rosberg at the end of the season (important for next year) but also would give him 13 wins in a season which would equal the record jointly held by Vettel and Schumacher.

Oh, and he's a racing driver and they don't, by default, aim to do anything other than win.

I didn't know what championship permutation thread was about but now it's clear that it's mindless (with no facts to back it up, pure fantasy - "wants") hyping favourite driver and bashing his opponent. I think i'll pass on disproving how nonsensical those post are using large chunks of previous and verifiable data showing the opposite, I can't be bothered with private messages from mods showing how inappropriate touching material world here is.

[NathanOlder]

Yet you're still here posting.

Back on topic, I'd be suprised if Lewis could win all 5, I have a feeling Russia will be very tough for mercedes, everyone was closer in Qualy last year, if I remember, shouldn't Bottas have taken pole until he screwed up the last corner.

[PlatinumZealot]

Hamilton will want to win all 5 of the remaining races. This will ensure he dominates Rosberg at the end of the season (important for next year) but also would give him 13 wins in a season which would equal the record jointly held by Vettel and Schumacher.

Oh, and he's a racing driver and they don't, by default, aim to do anything other than win.

I didn't know what championship permutation thread was about but now it's clear that it's mindless (with no facts to back it up, pure fantasy - "wants") hyping favourite driver and bashing his opponent. I think i'll pass on disproving how nonsensical those post are using large chunks of previous and verifiable data showing the opposite, I can't be bothered with private messages from mods showing how inappropriate touching material world here is.

Haha.. I don't believe you!

[SiLo]

Yet you're still here posting.

Back on topic, I'd be suprised if Lewis could win all 5, I have a feeling Russia will be very tough for mercedes, everyone was closer in Qualy last year, if I remember, shouldn't Bottas have taken pole until he screwed up the last corner.

Closer until the red lights went out and both Mercedes drove off into the distance. Rosberg even driving through the entire field on one set of tyres and still coming second.

[GPR-A duplicate2]

Once again to remind, Nico is nursing a damaged PU, which had failed in Monza. In Suzuka, while he was closely chasing Bottas, he was asked to take care of it and not stress it. For as long as he is using that PU, he would always be on the back foot as he can't use it to its fullest potential. Lewis is still on his 3rd PU and having been in cruise control mode in Monza (for most part) and Suzuka, he has conserved a lot of potential of the PU and he can still use the current PU to full extent.

Ferrari has 4 tokens left and when they bring an upgraded PU, it would be fifth of the season and has to come with a penalty, putting Vettel in much farther position in championship.

[Phil]

I was under the impression that the engine is fixed? It was "only" some leak?

[Skippon]

Err not fixed. Nico engine 3 had water in the oil meaning that there my be a some contamination/corrosion that will shorten the engines life - doesn't need to be much..... Anyhow he's racing this 4th and hoping he can eak out the mileage.

[Phil]

So... Hamilton extends his lead from 48 to 73 points with 4 races to go over Rosberg (and 100 points on the table).

Nico, who was ahead of Vettel by 11 points, now is in position 3, trailing him by 7 points.

So the standings:

Hamilton: 302 pt
Vettel: 236 pt [-66 points]
Rosberg: 229 pt [-73 points]

EDIT: To rap it up, he needs to gain 9 points over Vettel in Austin and only 2 points over Rosberg to exclude him from the championship race.

EDIT2: some scenarios:

- If Hamilton wins Austin, with Rosberg 2nd and Vettel 3rd, he's WDC
- If Hamilton wins Austin, with Vettel 2nd and Rosberg 3rd, Rosberg is out and the Vettel becomes the only contender.
- Basicaly, Rosberg needs to beat Hamilton or he's out.

[turbof1]

We should somehow have expected this, but the contructor's championship is now going to be potentially decided off-track. If Raikkonen either gets disqualified or a penalty heavy enough to drop him to 8th, Mercedes concludes the championship.

[Phil]

I didn't even think about that, but yes... I'm fairly certain Raikkoenen will be punished for that. The question is, how hard.

It shouldn't matter in the grand scheme of things. There's no way Ferrari would beat Mercedes in the WCC anyway. A race earlier or later, it doesn't really matter. But Lewis's advantage is huge.

Assuming Rosberg wins it, Hamilton comes 2nd, the gap is reduced from 73 to 66 (7 points) but the available points shrink as well. So with 66 points gap and 75 points left, a gap over Nico in the race after Austin of 9 points will also seal it. So Nico is under massive pressure.

I also think Lewis goes extremely well in Austin. But we'll see. Nico can drive with the feeling it's written off, who knows. A DNF could still strike for Lewis.