Championship permutations

[SiLo]

Well there you go, Mercedes with the WCC after Kimi got a stop go penalty (30 seconds added to race time) and demoted to 8th.

[Moose]

Here's the US permutations - for the first race we can have the WDC crowned:
• If Hamilton wins, Vettel must finish 2nd to stop Hamilton being crowned WDC.
• If Hamilton finishes 2nd, Vettel must finish 5th or Rosberg must win to stop Hamilton being crowned WDC (3rd would allow equal points, but Hamilton has won enough races to guarantee victory on count back)
• If Hamilton finishes 3rd, Vettel must finish 6th (7th would allow equal points, but Hamilton would win on count back), Rosberg must finish 4th.
• If Hamilton finishes 4th, Vettel must finish 8th, Rosberg must finish 5th.
• If Hamilton finishes 5th, Vettel must finish 9th, Rosberg must finish 6th.
• If Hamilton finishes 6th, the WDC will continue to the next race.

[i70q7m7ghw]

Something quite bizarre would have to happen for Hamilton not to get the WDC now.

[Moose]

Something quite bizarre would have to happen for Hamilton not to get the WDC now.

Sure there are only two possible questions now:
1) So what race did he win it at?
2) So where was it he broke his leg again?

[turbof1]

If Hamilton wins the next race too and assuming Vettel comes second, then he would only need to score 2 more points in the final 3 races in the absolute worst case that Vettel wins those 3 remaining ones.

Hamilton will probably have to win the next race to secure the title, since if he doesn't it will be by all probability that either Vettel or Rosberg wins it. Although not inmediately the most likely situation, there's still a realistic chance something can happen with Hamilton's car.

Even a scenario of breaking the leg would be rather unlikely to stop Hamilton from snatching the WDC. Either it happens early enough for him to recover just enough to get back in the final 2 or 1 races to score points, or it happens late enough that he in the meanwhile already secured it. And, his replacement would steal points from atleast Vettel and perhaps even Rosberg at one or two occasions.

It's quadruple WDC insurance: The first one is the one with the slower car is the closest, the second one is that the one with the faster car is close to being mathmatical locked out but can and will steal points for the first one, the third one is that Hamilton has a big points buffer over both of them and the last one is that we are running out of points to earn.

Infact, Hamilton will need to score only 34 points in the last 4 races combined to cover every and all situations.

[Shrieker]

I'd be disappointed if he didn't win all of them. Such is the benchmark he's set for himself.

[adrianjordan]

Given how well Hamilton has gone previously in Austin I think only a car failure can prevent him wrapping up the title there now.

[Phil]

If Hamilton finishes 3rd, Vettel must finish 6th (7th would allow equal points, but Hamilton would win on count back), Rosberg must finish 4th.

Rosberg in 4th vs Hamilton in 3rd is not enough. As stated a page previousl, the gap is 73 points to Rosberg with 100 available points - and 75 points post Austin. If Hamilton gains 2 points over Rosberg, Rosberg is out of contention. 3rd: 15 points, 4th: 12 points. Difference: 3 points.

Hamilton needs 9 points over Vettel, but i'm pretty much ruling out Vettel as a WDC contender, even if he is 2nd. If Hamilton finishes inside the the top 8 and is ahead of Rosberg, Rosberg is OUT and he will be helping out Hamilton as a team player no matter what happens. With such a point difference, it doesnt matter anyway.

[Manoah2u]

It's not totally impossible that something unexpected happens during either of the races. One of such could - that does not mean it's likely or that it will happen - occur in a first-corner frenzy with Vettel or Raikkonen, perhaps Bottas, making a braking error and taking out Lewis. Rosberg for the win, lewis DNF. It improves Rosbergs chances, but they're still small.

Either way, it's kinda unlikely Lewis won't bag this one. He knew it after he finished the race. Pretty obvious why he was emotional parking the car at parc fermé. took quite the time before exiting the vehicle and then he gave it a hug and helmet kiss. That kinda said it all. Lewis knows that now Rosberg had a DNF and he had the full points he kinda guaranteed himself the WDC. So there you have it, lewis WDC 2015, making him a Triple World Driver Champion.

I think we're in for an interesting 2016, as it's the last one in current format. I expect Merc still to dominate but having a heavy breather in the form of Ferrari. I'd say Lewis is gonna give it his all in 2016 and clinch the 4th Title in a battle VS Vettel,
getting him equal to Vettel there.

2017 I'm gonna go ahead and plant Lewis in either the Ferrari or back at Mclaren, but i'm expecting Ferrari. Imagine that, 4-Time WDC Hamilton vs 4-Time WDC Vettel in the same team. Win-Win for Ferrari.

[PlatinumZealot]

Lewis is staying at mercedes till the end of 2018 as far as I know. I would love hime to go to Ferrari for a few years then finish up at Mclaren.

[Moose]

Lewis is staying at mercedes till the end of 2018 as far as I know. I would love hime to go to Ferrari for a few years then finish up at Mclaren.

I don't see him ever going to Ferrari. Unfortunately, a lot of their fans are too prejudiced to accept him as a Ferrari driver.

[GPR-A duplicate2]

It's not totally impossible that something unexpected happens during either of the races. One of such could - that does not mean it's likely or that it will happen - occur in a first-corner frenzy with Vettel or Raikkonen, perhaps Bottas, making a braking error and taking out Lewis. Rosberg for the win, lewis DNF. It improves Rosbergs chances, but they're still small.

I have a feeling that, First, from the beginning of this year, lot of people genuinely didn't wanted Lewis to win this year, which means they never really wanted a title battle. Second, the whole year, people have been wishing DNF for Lewis, but those prayers were answered on the other guy. Is that how we want a championship fight to be like? Just because one driver is doing incredible job and the other isn't? Last year though, when Lewis was suffering DNFs, there was hardly any sympathy and many here were making him the guilty for those DNFs (He is hard on brakes... he eats the tyres.... blah blah blah). Even this year, half the crowd blamed him for Monaco farce.

I would like to see a battle for championships on merit and if that is not coming, I wouldn't be an a** h*** to wish bad luck for any driver. It would never be a battle if one has to bear the handicap in his fight, a handicap which is totally out of his control.

As for this year's championship, Lewis can afford 3 DNFs (Vettel has to win all 3 of them and finish second in one, for Lewis to lose)!!! Lewis just need one race win to clinch the title. That simple. Ferrari is bound to get a new PU, the fifth of the season as they have 4 more tokens left. And if they do, Vettel would be safely out of championship. Nico has suffered damages even in his 4th PU, which means he is likely to go for a 5th PU sometime and if not, has to manage it's life, allowing Lewis to attack him. The two next races are on power circuits and you don't want to race there with an ailing PU. Does that leave any more room for optimism on drivers' championship?

Hopefully, next year there would be a good battle where no one has to wish for a DNF for any driver.

[Manoah2u]

I don't think you understand me well.

Me stating the possibility of a DNF resulting in Rosberg's title chances keeping alive does not equal me wishing such a thing would happen. On the contrary, i can concider myself a 'fan' of Lewis, and to be honest, far from it from Rosberg. Lewis deserves this title fair and square, and really, last year too.

It's pure mathematics on how Rosberg could win his title this year. Which, he knows himself, is surely not gonna happen. I doubt it ever would this year. It's over now though.

[Phil]

Just thought of a different approach.

4 races to go, 100 points on the table. This means that the maximum Vettel and Rosberg can achieve are:

2. Vettel: 236 + 100 = 336
3. Rosberg: 229 + 100 = 329

Lewis is currently at 302 points. In order to seal the WDC over the next 4 races, he needs to achieve 34 points (and 27 over Rosberg). Doesn't matter how he spreads those points, he has 4 races to do it. That can be a win and a 5th place (25+10), or two 2nd place finishes (18+18) or 2 3rd places and 8th place (15+15+4). This is vs. Vettel. IMO, Vettel is irrelevant, so if we look at simply 'beating' Rosberg a 3rd place and a 4th will knock him out (15+12) with two races to come. Once Rosberg is out of contention, he only needs to beat Vettel to seal it for his team-mate.

Looking at these stats, assuming no technical glitches or DNFs, I think he'll 'seal it' on paper in Mexico. Although Lewis goes extremely well in Austin.

Another interesting fact: If Rosberg for whatever reason takes out Lewis and himself on track (or the other way around), the gap remains at 73 points vs the two Merc drivers and Rosberg would still be in contention with 3 races to go. Assuming Vettel wins, the point gap to Vettel will be 41 with 75 points left, thought it wouldn't change the above math on how many points he would need to achieve over the remainder of races. But I'm not even going to entertain that scenario...

[GPR-A duplicate2]

I don't think you understand me well.

My response wasn't directed to you. It was for a lot of others. Cheers.

That can be a win and a 5th place (25+10),

If Lewis wins even one GP, then Vettel is not reaching 336 (4 wins not possible and hence it would be less than 336). Then Lewis, with a 9th place finish is champion (329). If Lewis wins 1 and 9th place in another, then Vettel wins 3 and a second place behind Lewis in one GP, then Vettel would be 329. That is 10 wins to Lewis against 6 wins to Vettel. Lewis is champion.