2016 Pecking Order Speculation and Fantasy Thread

[F1NAC]

So because this is a Fantasy thread what the heck.. Ferrari all the way [-o< (Not too far from reality )

[GoranF1]

2015:

1) Mercedes
2) Ferrari (+0.8 sec)
3) Williams (+1.0 sec)
4) RedBull (+1.5 sec)
5) Force India (+1.6 sec)
6) Lotus (+1.8 sec)
7) Toro Rosso (+1.9 sec)
Sauber (+2.5 sec)
9) Mclaren (+2.6 sec)
10) Manor (+5.0 sec)

2015 PU estimation:

1) Mercedes PU
2) Ferrari PU (+0.5 sec)
3) Renault PU (+1.0 sec)
4) Honda PU (+1.6 sec)

2016 PU speculation:

1) Mercedes PU
2) Ferrari PU (+0.3 sec)
3) Renault PU (+0.7 sec)
4) Honda PU (+0.8 sec)

2016 (Only with engines improvements):

1) Mercedes
2) Ferrari (+0.6 sec)
3) Williams (+1.0 sec)
4) RedBull (+1.2 sec)
5) Toro Rosso (+1.4 sec)
6) Force India (+1.6 sec)
7) Mclaren (+1.8 sec)
Sauber (+2.3 sec)
9) Renault (+2.5 sec)
10) Manor (+3.0 sec)

2016 (chassis improvements): Teams are all win 0.2 sec on Mercedes, except Renault (-0.4 sec), Mclaren (-0.5 sec) and Manor (-0.7 sec).

2016:

1) Mercedes
2) Ferrari (+0.4 sec)
3) Williams (+0.8 sec)
4) RedBull (+1.0 sec)
5) Toro Rosso (+1.2 sec)
6) Mclaren (+1.3 sec)
7) Force India (+1.4 sec)
Renault (+2.1 sec)
9) Sauber (+2.1 sec)
10) Manor (+2.3 sec)

Haas (+??? sec)

0.6 from Alonso puts Mclaren in a solid 3rd then.
Btw,you say Mclaren chasiss is even slower than Lotus...LOL.

[GoranF1]

Early season and testing
1Mercedes
2Force India
3ToroRosso
4Ferrari
5MclarenHonda
6Redbull
7Williams
8Renault
9Hass
10Sauber
11Manor

I,unlike many do not belive in late season form to be some kind of sign for next year at all.
If anything knowing Ferrari,Italians the hype curently in the media regarding their prospects,and the fact that they intend to make so big changes as changing fromt suspension and PU construct,i think they will not improve i think they will screw a perfectly good car up.
Mclaren Honda will improve,Honda is trowing milions into F1 at the moment they want to delete last year as soon as possible thats for sure othervise they wont sell --- im the close future.
Mercedes will have to make changes to engine as well if they dont want to be cought,so i expect them to be benchmark again but some reability problems are possible.
Torroroso will be good at begining but later will fall behind
Redbull will have terible season as will Renault,but in second part Renault will improve and Redbull will anaunce Audi deal via Lamborghini.
Sauber will suck but will anaunce Honda 2017 deal.

Second part of 2016
1Mercedes
2Ferrari. +0.2
3Mclaren. +0.5
4ForceIndia +1.0
5Tororosso +1.1
6Williams +1.2
...........
...........
..........

Hamilton will take title.

[Manoah2u]

Hamilton shock accident that will leave him to miss a couple of races.
Vettel takes the lead.
Hamilton returns to battle ala Hunt vs Lauda style.

Hamilton does the win.

Vettel leaves Ferrari & Formula 1.
Hamilton paints his hair RED.
Alonso goes to mercedes.
Button becomes WDC.

oh wait that was 2017 already lol.

i dunno, i only can say that i genuinly believe this season is less predictable compared to last season.
This because lewis now 3-times WDC and his results at the end of 2015 might really have him lose his edge just a bit and make it far more difficult to repeat, paired with the advantage loss of Merc and the competition closing in.
And im expecting Lewis to date riri in public and get same results as back with nicole.
so....yeah anything goes.

[damager21]

Mercedes - Will remain ahead with a small margin
Ferrari - Expect strong improvement on the chassis front
McLaren - Will start with a strong chassis and decent engine
Force India - 2015 chassis was good, expect an evolution in 2016
Red Bull - Engine will continue to hamper their progress. Will have best in class chassis
Williams - Will start falling back a bit as other teams start making progress
Toro Rosso - Will have strong chassis but 2015 Ferrari engine will be a limiting factor
Renault - First year as works team, will take some time for this integration to work
Sauber - Will slip a position as McLaren is bound to make progress. Limited budget will hurt
Haas - Formula 1 is tough, they will have to undergo a steep learning curve before they beat more experienced teams
Manor - Mercedes engine will push them ahead but limited budget will hurt

[pob]

1 Mercedes: still out front and able to control races but with a reduced margin leading to more mistakes
2 Ferrari
3 Williams
4/5/6 ForceIndia/RedBull/ToroRosso with little between them
7 McLaren: improved but will take another year to be near the front
8 Haas: good pace (equal to the 4/5/6 group) but don't capitalise due to operational naivety
9 Sauber: typical strong start to the season before dropping away
10 Manor: no longer off the back of the field but points finishes still rare
11 Renault: flops/"building year"

[proteus]

The most probable scenario:

1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari
3. Redbull
4. Williams
5. Mclaren
6. Force India
7. Renault
8. STR
9. Haas
10. Sauber
11. Manor

And a bit bold one:

1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari
3. Redbull
4. Mclaren
5. Williams
6. Force India
7. Haas
8. STR
9. Renault
10. Sauber
11. Manor

[FrukostScones]

So.. will Merc lose its crown...

I think so!

1. Ferrari
2. Mercedes
3. Force India
4. Williams
5. Toro Rosso
6. Red Bull
7. Haas
8. McLaren
9. Sauber
10. Renault
11. Ex-Manor

if Honda gets the engine tuned upside down then McLaren 3rd or 4th.

all revolves about the question whether McLaren will have a decent (full power on race laps) Honda engine.

Manor is so very last(def. after paasing that crash test so early and effortless, no good sign my opion), while I think Sauber wil Battle with Haas with Renault, maybe HAAS/SAUBER/RENAULT order. or maybe Sauber can surprise, after Toet left
If HAAS beats a Merc or both RB teams, I will call that big style fraud.

Definitely in 2016 PER will get another Podium if not surprise GP victory (2012 tyres seemed perfect for him and that RB aero guru named Guru will give us again a very nice and enhenced Red Bull copy with Merce engine)...

[Mclarettino]

The sport needs a team to challenge Mercedes this season and all indications are it will be Ferrari.

But rumours are Mercedes have a Left Right Interconnected Suspension system which Ferrari do not have, and initial reports indicate that Ferrari still have not adopted the split turbine compressor layout which gives so many benefits and is fundamental to Mercedes speed.

I fear that Mercedes gap to the 2nd best team might increase even more than it was last season.

[ajprice]

Mercedes then Ferrari. It will be close, Vettel will win a few, Hamilton v Vettel will be a regular fight, Rosberg could end up p3 at the end of the year.

Williams. Ahead of the rest but not caught up with p1 and 2.

Force India/Red Bull/Toro Rosso. Force India could be anywhere to be honest. TR will have the better engine, and Max, RB the better car design.

McLaren/Haas. Close thing between them, and they'll both catch the teams ahead as the year goes on.

Renault. Ahead of the tail enders, regular low end points, never catching up with McLaren/Haas though.

Manor/Sauber. Close at the start, Manor will improve as the season goes on and snatch a few points, Sauber drift further back.

[hemichromis]

Still expecting a Mercedes win but i'm hoping for a 3 way battle between Hamilton, Rosberg and Vettel with Rosberg eventually beating Hamilton.

Long term Hamilton fan finding fewer excuses for his behaviour!!!

[NathanOlder]

What behaviour ?

[Just_a_fan]

Ferrari close on Mercedes. Hamilton and Vettel fight it out most of the time leading to shunts and lost points. Rosberg and Kimi quietly amass points and it goes down to the last race where Hamilto has to let Rosberg through for the title win. Toto resigns in disgust afterwards as Hamilton takes the flag and Rosberg throws all of his toys. Hamilton then retires from F1 with the boos from the crowd ringing in his ears.

Seriously, if Ferrari are closer then I expect the title race to be between Vettel and Hamilton. I don't think Rosberg is a good enough "street fighter" to take it to Vettel in a close race. Hamilton vs Vettel through the whole season would be excellent as we'd know that there are no team orders behind the scenes.

[Mclarettino]

Having read all the pre season technical analysis I think (and hope am wrong) that in 2016 Mercedes will actually increase the gap to the 2nd team (most likely Ferrari) than existed in 2015, and Marchionne's constant boasts about Ferrari will be the team to beat from Australia will have backfired completely unfortunately making a fool of him.

Why the increased gap? Look I am guessing like everyone else, and could post links to many articles but I think(guess) this mainly because of just 2 reasons. There are many other less important reasons, but the main 2 are:

1) Because Mercedes have developed a Left Right Interconnected Suspension which the Ferrari won't have.
2) Ferrari still unbelievably have not adopted the Mercedes PU split Turbine Compressor layout which is fundamental to Mercedes' speed advantage.

[Cold Fussion]

I rate this analysis a perfect 5/7.