Fulcrum wrote:There should be two more options for this poll:
Yes he can, assuming equitable reliability and technical issues for both drivers.
No he can't, if Rosberg has no reliability issues.
I'm no fanboy of Hamilton, or Rosberg, but Hamilton is capable enough of winning this assuming comparable issues for both drivers from here onward. Where it gets difficult is if Rosberg has no issues at all, and Hamilton has some.
In 2014, Hamilton had 3 retirements to Rosberg's 2. Outside of those races, the lowest Hamilton finished was 3rd (twice), Rosberg 4th (once); Rosberg never finished 3rd; 2nd or higher for everything else for both drivers. Of the races where they finished 1-2, Hamilton held an 8-3 advantage.
In 2015, Rosberg had 2 retirements to Hamilton's 1. Hungary was a bit of an aberration where they both finished in unusual positions (6th [H] and 8th [R]). Beyond that, we have a 4th and two 3rd places for Rosberg, one 3rd for Hamilton. All other finishes being 2nd or higher. In 12 1-2 finishes, Hamilton held a 7-5 advantage.
If Mercedes managed to have perfect weekends from this point onward Hamilton should win the head-to-head within a range of 12-5 to 10-7. 12-5 would yield a final points total of 447-441 in Hamilton's favour. 10-7, and the result is 433-455 in Rosberg's favour.
Perfection from this moment onward is unreasonable though. In 2014 there were 8 instances of Mercedes not finishing 1-2; there were 7 such instances in 2015. When these happen, Hamilton is usually the beneficiary; he scored 48 points more than Rosberg in 2014, and 45 more in 2015. 93 points better from 15 examples, so let's say 6 points per non-optimal race.
In 2016 there have been 2 examples of Mercedes not scoring 1-2 finishes. Based on 2014 and 2015 data, we can expect 6-7 more of these events. If form holds, Hamilton should generate about 30-40 points more than Rosberg from these alone. I'll assume there will be 10 more 1-2 finishes, and model Hamilton 7-3 or 6-4 ahead of Rosberg.
7-3: Hamilton Rosberg
Current: 57 100
'Bad' Races: 115 79
1-2 Races: 229 201
Total: 401 380
6-4: Hamilton Rosberg
Current: 57 100
'Bad' Races: 115 79
1-2 Races: 222 208
Total: 394 387
SUMMARY:
Given normal circumstances, the remainder of the season should yield a close result. Hamilton should, under historical circumstances, win the title. If Rosberg benefits from further reliability problems of Hamilton, or simply raises his game, the outcome swings in his favour. Whether he is capable of holding his nerve to actually win from a winning position remains to be seen.
WOW
I'm not going to get into the details of the race, other than to suggest the result doesn't favour Hamilton mathematically; not exactly rocket science working that one out.
Under the assumptions of the previous exercise, Hamilton winning 1-2 finishes 7-3 means he wins the championship 385-369, which is a narrower margin than 401-380. If he wins 6-4, it's 378-376 to Hamilton, also narrower than before.
This could end up being an epic battle, what with the collision, their personal history etc... Hamilton does need to start winning races though.
