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Technically if they do have the third best chassis like they say they do, they should be just behind Mercedes red bull and Ferrari, so that would mean qualifying 7-8 but I belive they will be fighting with Toro Rossi for those places, so qualifying anywhere in between 7-10 should be expected with maybe a 1.2-1.5 second gap to the lead
8 - 12 place. I predict bad luck for them. Generally, I feel like the Honda - Mclaren project is not what it was supposed to be and it's time for changes. That's second year in a row with very mediocre performances, despite all the big talk from Ron and co.
So, if all goes as planned they would fight wirh the STRs and FIs behind the RBRs, Mercs and Ferraries for place 7.
Mix that with the Monaco magic and Monaco bad luck, I would say, 5th and 9th
"Explain the ending to F1 in football terms"
"Hamilton was beating Verstappen 7-0, then the ref decided F%$& rules, next goal wins
while also sending off 4 Hamilton players to make it more interesting"
Presuming nothing messy happens up front: RET, and 10th.
If something messy happens: RET and 8th.
I really cannot see them placing any higher than that, particularly as some of their strategy calls lately haven't been as sharp as other teams so I wouldn't expect them to be able to take advantage of surprise situations more than those midfield teams used to fighting in the pack and making those calls.
Yes I know, Monaco is more about chassis than engine and they didn't do badly last year yada yada, but... they only need a few other midfielders to be lucky and bump them back down the points.