Points left to grab the championship - who and how?

[Phil]

Just to cover the entire ground:

Currently:
- Wins: LH 9, NR 9
- 2nd places: LH 3, NR 4
- 3rd places: LH 4, NR 2

This to me highlights it pretty clear if there is a tie in points:
- Whoever wins AD has one win more
- If LH gets a 2nd, he ties NR for 2nds, but then has more 3rd places

Thus.......

Rosberg is champion when:
- Rosberg finishes on the podium regardless what Hamilton does
- Rosberg finishes 4th, Hamilton must be no better than 2nd.
- Rosberg finishes 5th, Hamilton must be no better than 2nd.
- Rosberg finishes 6th, Hamilton must be no better than 2nd.
- Rosberg finishes 7th, Hamilton must be no better than 3rd (2nd ties them on points and 2nd places, but LH wins by more 3rd places)
- Rosberg finishes 8th, Hamilton must be no better than 3rd.
- Rosberg finishes 9th, Hamilton must be no better than 4th.
- Rosberg finishes 10th, Hamilton must be no better than 4th.
- Rosberg finishes outside the points or DNFs, Hamilton must be no better than 4th (4th ties them, but Rosberg wins on 2nds)
- Hamilton finishes worse than 3rd (4th would tie them on points, but NR has more 2nd places)

Hamilton is champion when:
- Hamilton wins, Rosberg must be no better than 4th (4th ties them on points, Hamilton wins on more wins)
- Hamilton finishes 2nd, Rosberg must be no better than 7th (ties them on points, Hamilton wins on more 3rds)
- Hamilton finishes 3rd, Rosberg must be no better than 9th


So which ever way you want to put it, Hamilton must finish on the podium to have any chance of securing his 4th WDC. Some other interesting points;

- NR finished lower than 3rd on four occasions (5 if you count the DNF in Barcelona) in 20 races so far.
- LH finished lower than 3rd on two occasions (4 if you count the DNF in Barcelona and Malaysia).
- If LH didn't have the DNF in Malaysia, NR would have finished lower than 3rd on five occasions
- NR finished 4th in Austria, arguably of his own doing by coming together with LH.
- There is a high probability the Mercedes would have finished on the podium every single time if not for either a technical issue or crash or DNF (except I'm not sure NR in Germany where he finished 4th... was it a bad start?)


EDIT: Edited english...

[ChrisDanger]

The vast majority of this is quite unlikely, but here it is anyway.

[nevill3]

So Lewis has a 16% chance of winning and Nico 84% of winning...ish

[mrluke]

If their finishing position is decided by a random number generator then yes, in reality both drivers are likely to be on the podium and it basically depends on whether nico has a mechanical failure or not.

[EvilPhil II]

"why is Lewis backing me up?" - it's going to get dirty

[notsofast]

So Lewis has a 16% chance of winning and Nico 84% of winning...ish

That's exactly what the New York Times said just before election day one week ago.

[Fulcrum]

So Lewis has a 16% chance of winning and Nico 84% of winning...ish

That's definitely incorrect, as it makes the assumption that all tabled outcomes are equally likely, which they are not. Hamilton/Rosberg are far more likely to DNF than finish 10th, being only one counterexample illustrating this point.

My model assigns Rosberg a 76% chance of winning. Bookies appear to concur, with implied odds from the betting market suggesting Rosberg's chances are 75.5%.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/f ... ampionship

What is interesting is the pie chart, which indicates fewer bets are on Rosberg and more are on Hamilton. If this is indicative of the amount of money wagered, not the number of bets, then the bookies will have to shorten the odds on Hamilton, or lengthen the odds on Rosberg, in order to balance their books.

[ChrisDanger]

A simpler story...

[Phil]

A simpler story...

https://i.redd.it/cy610gtenpxx.jpg

This is not correct AFAIK and illustrated by my above summary and your diagram.

Hamilton 4th means Rosberg with zero points wins on more 2nds.

[ChrisDanger]

This is not correct AFAIK and illustrated by my above summary and your diagram.

Hamilton 4th means Rosberg with zero points wins on more 2nds.

Yes. Silly Sky... And me by extension I suppose.

[Manoah2u]

Apart from that being rather logical, do the rules actually back up that amount of 2nd places count or not?

If, just for theory, there would have been a situation, where there are 20 GP's,
and Lewis would have won 10 GP's,
and Nico would have won 10 GP's,
and Lewis would have been 2nd 10 GP's,
and Nico would have been 2nd 10 GP's,
and Lewis would have had 10 Pole Positions, (Q1, Q2, and Q3)
and Nico would have had 10 Pole Positions (Q1, Q2, and Q3)
and Lewis would have had 10 P2's at qually (Q1, Q2, and Q3)
and Nico would have had 10 P2's at qually (Q1, Q2, and Q3)

and both would have had exactly the same laps lead during the season.
and both would have had exactly the same laps 2nd during the season.

In other words, they are tied and equal in every sense possible.
What then decides who is champion? The one that won the first GP? or the one who won the last GP?

Obviously this is not for this season, but rather a question in general for something that is not entirely impossible.
Rather unlikely, yes. But not by definition impossible. In a non-even calender season this would not be possible (unless they both have a DNF and both would have not been able to participate in Qually during that grad prix).

[Jolle]

Apart from that being rather logical, do the rules actually back up that amount of 2nd places count or not?

If, just for theory, there would have been a situation, where there are 20 GP's,
and Lewis would have won 10 GP's,
and Nico would have won 10 GP's,
and Lewis would have been 2nd 10 GP's,
and Nico would have been 2nd 10 GP's,
and Lewis would have had 10 Pole Positions, (Q1, Q2, and Q3)
and Nico would have had 10 Pole Positions (Q1, Q2, and Q3)
and Lewis would have had 10 P2's at qually (Q1, Q2, and Q3)
and Nico would have had 10 P2's at qually (Q1, Q2, and Q3)

and both would have had exactly the same laps lead during the season.
and both would have had exactly the same laps 2nd during the season.

In other words, they are tied and equal in every sense possible.
What then decides who is champion? The one that won the first GP? or the one who won the last GP?

Obviously this is not for this season, but rather a question in general for something that is not entirely impossible.
Rather unlikely, yes. But not by definition impossible. In a non-even calender season this would not be possible (unless they both have a DNF and both would have not been able to participate in Qually during that grad prix).

Even or not even has nothing to do with it, there are more then two cars

but this is so improbable, that when it does happen, it should be celebrated

[Manoah2u]

Offcourse there are more than two cars. But if we look into the Mercedes domination, then theoretically, if everything goes well - no driver contact, and no technical DNFs - then it doesnt matter if there are 20 cars or 30 cars in the field.

Let's just imagine both Mercedes' driving off at the start and the car in P1 pulling a 1,5 + second gap on the 2nd car killing any DRS possibility,
and the 2nd car pulling a 30 sec. gap on the car in P3 in every race. that means free pit stops for both Mercs, and lets see it as no 'undercutting' by a P2 driver,
but P1 driver pitting first, and the P2 driver simply pitting next fair and square.

In other words, the races would be either decided in the qualification. Rather boring, i know, but it's all theoretic.
Or just have the P2 driver come close to the P1 driver in the middle of the race and then overtaking him fair and square and then keeping that P1.

again, theoretically.

WHAT would be the way the championship would be decided?
Free practice is NOT a qualified event, so it doesnt count. But in the case that even that would be concidered, imagine as crazy as all FP's also having EXACTLY the same ties.

again, i'm not willing to discuss how improbable and unlikely this is.
I'm rather curious on what would be decided if such a thing happens.

All i could come up with is who would win the first GP OR who would win the last GP. both would have their 'backing' to be honest.
First GP WIN would simply show that that driver was the very first to be 'better' than the other.
on the other hand, the last gp could be seen as the 'decisive' factor as it's the last GP.
I'm simply wondering whether such a 'rule' or 'means of decision' already excists or not. I could imagine that if such a thing does happen, and no rule exists,
that they might decide in advance after the pre-final race, that in the case of the final race resulting in a complete tie, that the winner of that race becomes WDC.

Again, rather curious whether all grounds have already been covered or not.

[WaikeCU]

Knowing how Rosberg is, I think he'll go conservative and avoid any battles with Hamilton. If he goes P1, then it is, other than that, he'll just cruise behind Hamilton and settle for 2nd. Last thing he wants is a puncture or his wing falling off and getting stuck underneath the car. I don't think Red Bull or Ferrari will pose a threat in Abu Dhabi,

[Jackuar]

Offcourse there are more than two cars. But if we look into the Mercedes domination, then theoretically, if everything goes well - no driver contact, and no technical DNFs - then it doesnt matter if there are 20 cars or 30 cars in the field.

Let's just imagine both Mercedes' driving off at the start and the car in P1 pulling a 1,5 + second gap on the 2nd car killing any DRS possibility,
and the 2nd car pulling a 30 sec. gap on the car in P3 in every race. that means free pit stops for both Mercs, and lets see it as no 'undercutting' by a P2 driver,
but P1 driver pitting first, and the P2 driver simply pitting next fair and square.

In other words, the races would be either decided in the qualification. Rather boring, i know, but it's all theoretic.
Or just have the P2 driver come close to the P1 driver in the middle of the race and then overtaking him fair and square and then keeping that P1.

again, theoretically.

WHAT would be the way the championship would be decided?
Free practice is NOT a qualified event, so it doesnt count. But in the case that even that would be concidered, imagine as crazy as all FP's also having EXACTLY the same ties.

again, i'm not willing to discuss how improbable and unlikely this is.
I'm rather curious on what would be decided if such a thing happens.

All i could come up with is who would win the first GP OR who would win the last GP. both would have their 'backing' to be honest.
First GP WIN would simply show that that driver was the very first to be 'better' than the other.
on the other hand, the last gp could be seen as the 'decisive' factor as it's the last GP.
I'm simply wondering whether such a 'rule' or 'means of decision' already excists or not. I could imagine that if such a thing does happen, and no rule exists,
that they might decide in advance after the pre-final race, that in the case of the final race resulting in a complete tie, that the winner of that race becomes WDC.

Again, rather curious whether all grounds have already been covered or not.

My two cents. I don't know if this has been covered in the rule book but if it happens, then most probably they're declared co-champions. A lesser possible decision could be, if they wanted strictly single champion only, then the defending champion retains his title because the challenger 'matched' him but didn't 'defeat' him.