Honda Power Unit Hardware & Software

[Redragon]

Hi all.

I have been lurking here for some time and decided to post. I really like speculating on numbers and I get to see a lot of numbers here. So I am going to speculate with you guys.

I predicted that the leading McLaren will be within 1.4 s from the leading Ferrari and the gap actually turned out to be within 1.3 s, so I think maybe these numbers won't be far off. Of course there's no proof of that so if you can believe that I did predict the previous number maybe the next ones will be good as well.

So, assumptions. Hahahaha, these are all assumptions. Now lets get to the numbers.

There's some sort of consensus that at Abu Dhabi 2016, Merc was at 960 HP and Honda was at 900 HP. The next assumption is that Honda was back at 900 at Barcelona. So what did "Spec 3" bring. Wazari mentioned 10-20 HP while AMUS stated that they are halfway into the 2016 deficit so 30 HP. Lets average it out and say 25 HP. Lets say the Merc is at 980 HP now. And qualifying mode is at 995 HP. This is because I think Andy Cowell said that they are not going to be at 1000 this year. So these are all the assumed numbers. I am going to say Ferrari is at a similar number as well.

Boullier mentioned at some point that they were losing 1.8 s at Baku and 0.9 s at Hungary due to engine. I am going to take this at face value and see where the numbers lead. Now since Baku is a more engine sensitive circuit, we'll say 10 HP is worth 0.2 s at Baku and Hungary at 0.15 s. Now, Baku was at 900 HP and Hungary at 925 HP so do these numbers match up.

Option 1:
(995 - 900)*0.20 = 0.190
(995 - 925)*0.15 = 0.105

Option 2:
(990 - 900)*0.20 = 0.180
(990 - 925)*0.15 = 0.098

Option 3:
(990 - 900)*0.20 = 0.180
(990 - 930)*0.15 = 0.090

Option 3:
(995 - 900)*0.20 = 0.190
(995 - 930)*0.15 = 0.098

So if these numbers suggest either Merc is at 990 and Honda at 930 or this is all a load of crap. Lets move on.

Now we want to solve the inverse problem. Once we see the qualifying numbers at Spa, and assuming that the next Honda upgrade is coming, we want to know how much HP will Honda be at. For my Hungary prediction I assumed that Hungary in principle is a similar track to Spain. I'll assume that Spa will be similar to Silverstone. So lead Merc to lead McLaren was at 2.8 s. Now Spa 2016 P1 was 1:46.744. Assuming there will be a 3.5 s improvement we'll say it will be 1:43.2 this year. So scaling that we get 3.3 s. So at current spec we are down 3.3 s. Now, how much does 10 HP give at Spa. Assuming 70 HP deficit at Silverstone, that's a whopping 0.4 s and scaling that takes us to 0.48 s.

Now we assume that by then this spec will be at 930 HP with all optimizations. Another thing I'll do is that I reduce deficit by 0.1 s every 15 HP simply for a halo effect since they can add more downforce with higher speed. So lets do the numbers again.

Baseline:
(995 - 930)*0.48 - 0.0 = 3.1

+15 HP
(995 - 945)*0.48 - 0.1 = 2.3

+30 HP
(995 - 960)*0.48 - 0.2 = 1.5

+45 HP (Too optimistic)
(995 - 975)*0.48 - 0.3 = 0.7

So, near Spa, we'll see more speculations from different sources about how much HP they'll bring. And once qualifying happens, if these numbers are reasonable we'll know roughly how much HP it is.

Here it is your first speculation 15hp by Spa and rumours of another evo by end of year with another 40 Hp for Honda http://www.marca.com/motor/formula1/201 ... b458f.html

[nzjrs]

A new PU was tested yesterday and Vandoorne did a lap whit not empty fuel tank and was happy. Some say it could have been SPA spec.
Lets see if that makes Alonso happy and he desides Honda can stay.
Yes he runs this team.

If Wazari said timing was tight for Spec 4 at SPA, I would be surprised if they are testing the whole thing here. Llando Norris just did a 1:17.8, which is the same as Vandoorne's Q3 time. Interpret that as you wish https://twitter.com/F1/status/892704588851236865

[Redragon]

A new PU was tested yesterday and Vandoorne did a lap whit not empty fuel tank and was happy. Some say it could have been SPA spec.
Lets see if that makes Alonso happy and he desides Honda can stay.
Yes he runs this team.

If Wazari said timing was tight for Spec 4 at SPA, I would be surprised if they are testing the whole thing here. Llando Norris just did a 1:17.8, which is the same as Vandoorne's Q3 time. Interpret that as you wish https://twitter.com/F1/status/892704588851236865

The rumours are, it is by spa the Spec 3 fully finalised the one introduced in Baku and Spec 4 should be the one introduced by October

[godlameroso]

Just to clarify: I mentioned Honda's intial lack of budget and manpower, not facilities. McLaren's budget (I'm basing this on manpower) is also nowhere close to Mercedes or Ferrari. HRD has stepped its manpower and spending tremendously since the end of the 2015 season.

Also there is a difference between RBR-Renault relationship and McLaren Honda. RBR is clearly the customer to Renault. Renault is not contributing to RBR financially the way Honda is to McLaren. So to compare the two relationships IMO is like comparing apples to oranges. Sorry for being off topic.

Also I believe that this "Spec 4" will be slightly heavier than the current spec PU by about 4 Kilos. I also know the potential peak power from the "Spec 4" ICE is a substantial increase from the current ICE.

@wazari you have revealed quite a lot . now please tell us the date when this "spec4" is being rolled out. are they testing this spec in current test.

He has, several times in fact. He doesn't believe it can be ready this year, although it doesn't mean the current spec can't be updated. What interests me is why spec 4 would be heavier.

[GoranF1]

A new PU was tested yesterday and Vandoorne did a lap whit not empty fuel tank and was happy. Some say it could have been SPA spec.
Lets see if that makes Alonso happy and he desides Honda can stay.
Yes he runs this team.

If Wazari said timing was tight for Spec 4 at SPA, I would be surprised if they are testing the whole thing here. Llando Norris just did a 1:17.8, which is the same as Vandoorne's Q3 time. Interpret that as you wish https://twitter.com/F1/status/892704588851236865

There is a spec between spec 3 and 4....as reported about 10000 times.

[nzjrs]

A new PU was tested yesterday and Vandoorne did a lap whit not empty fuel tank and was happy. Some say it could have been SPA spec.
Lets see if that makes Alonso happy and he desides Honda can stay.
Yes he runs this team.

If Wazari said timing was tight for Spec 4 at SPA, I would be surprised if they are testing the whole thing here. Llando Norris just did a 1:17.8, which is the same as Vandoorne's Q3 time. Interpret that as you wish https://twitter.com/F1/status/892704588851236865

There is a spec between spec 3 and 4....as reported about 10000 times.

LOL. If I believed everything reported I'd be mental. I trust data and Wazari

[godlameroso]

Hi all.

I have been lurking here for some time and decided to post. I really like speculating on numbers and I get to see a lot of numbers here. So I am going to speculate with you guys.

I predicted that the leading McLaren will be within 1.4 s from the leading Ferrari and the gap actually turned out to be within 1.3 s, so I think maybe these numbers won't be far off. Of course there's no proof of that so if you can believe that I did predict the previous number maybe the next ones will be good as well.

So, assumptions. Hahahaha, these are all assumptions. Now lets get to the numbers.

There's some sort of consensus that at Abu Dhabi 2016, Merc was at 960 HP and Honda was at 900 HP. The next assumption is that Honda was back at 900 at Barcelona. So what did "Spec 3" bring. Wazari mentioned 10-20 HP while AMUS stated that they are halfway into the 2016 deficit so 30 HP. Lets average it out and say 25 HP. Lets say the Merc is at 980 HP now. And qualifying mode is at 995 HP. This is because I think Andy Cowell said that they are not going to be at 1000 this year. So these are all the assumed numbers. I am going to say Ferrari is at a similar number as well.

Boullier mentioned at some point that they were losing 1.8 s at Baku and 0.9 s at Hungary due to engine. I am going to take this at face value and see where the numbers lead. Now since Baku is a more engine sensitive circuit, we'll say 10 HP is worth 0.2 s at Baku and Hungary at 0.15 s. Now, Baku was at 900 HP and Hungary at 925 HP so do these numbers match up.

Option 1:
(995 - 900)*0.20 = 0.190
(995 - 925)*0.15 = 0.105

Option 2:
(990 - 900)*0.20 = 0.180
(990 - 925)*0.15 = 0.098

Option 3:
(990 - 900)*0.20 = 0.180
(990 - 930)*0.15 = 0.090

Option 3:
(995 - 900)*0.20 = 0.190
(995 - 930)*0.15 = 0.098

So if these numbers suggest either Merc is at 990 and Honda at 930 or this is all a load of crap. Lets move on.

Now we want to solve the inverse problem. Once we see the qualifying numbers at Spa, and assuming that the next Honda upgrade is coming, we want to know how much HP will Honda be at. For my Hungary prediction I assumed that Hungary in principle is a similar track to Spain. I'll assume that Spa will be similar to Silverstone. So lead Merc to lead McLaren was at 2.8 s. Now Spa 2016 P1 was 1:46.744. Assuming there will be a 3.5 s improvement we'll say it will be 1:43.2 this year. So scaling that we get 3.3 s. So at current spec we are down 3.3 s. Now, how much does 10 HP give at Spa. Assuming 70 HP deficit at Silverstone, that's a whopping 0.4 s and scaling that takes us to 0.48 s.

Now we assume that by then this spec will be at 930 HP with all optimizations. Another thing I'll do is that I reduce deficit by 0.1 s every 15 HP simply for a halo effect since they can add more downforce with higher speed. So lets do the numbers again.

Baseline:
(995 - 930)*0.48 - 0.0 = 3.1

+15 HP
(995 - 945)*0.48 - 0.1 = 2.3

+30 HP
(995 - 960)*0.48 - 0.2 = 1.5

+45 HP (Too optimistic)
(995 - 975)*0.48 - 0.3 = 0.7

So, near Spa, we'll see more speculations from different sources about how much HP they'll bring. And once qualifying happens, if these numbers are reasonable we'll know roughly how much HP it is.

The gap at Spa will be ~2.7 seconds, that's what the gap was last year, Rosberg didn't need to go full out to get pole since he didn't have to compete with Hamilton. Unless of course they bring an update, then maybe less, I'd consider it an accomplishment if they can get the gap to 2 seconds around this power and aero efficiency sensitive track. Of course I want more but I have to remain realistic.

[Dipesh1995]

The gap last year between JB and Rosberg was approx 1.4 seconds in quali.

[ZakB]

http://www.marca.com/motor/formula1/201 ... b458f.html

Summary:

• Honda says vibrations mostly fixed, others are more skeptical and claim that part of the problem is still there.

• Another step forward after the summer break, probably not spec 4 but part of the spec 3 update.

• Baku update added 15 BHP.

• Engine is still far of being competitive.

• Spa update focuses on turbo and MGH-K

• McLaren can only switch engines if Honda cancels the contract (ends in 2021)

• Biggest update will come in October (40 BHP)

• Not in Japan, VS or Mexico is more likely

• Spec 4 targets Renault and should close the gap to Ferrari and Mercedes within 40-50 BHP

The work is not finished in the factory and already want motor evolved in track? lol
Is the same PU, only with new elements

Satoshi Nakamura: "We had an oil leak just before the break to eat, and we lost time on the track." "Yes, we do not worry too much." "In fact, I prefer to run into these test problems, and as such, the incident does not much importance"
"Today was the first day of testing after the Hungarian Grand Prix at Hungaroring, and the team has used extra time on the track to test new parts for the chassis, while we have tested new elements in the power unit. Our goal has been to gather as much information as possible, and work to improve both the performance and reliability of the power unit facing the second half of the season "

http://soymotor.com/noticias/honda-tuvi ... eso-937867

[GoranF1]

If Wazari said timing was tight for Spec 4 at SPA, I would be surprised if they are testing the whole thing here. Llando Norris just did a 1:17.8, which is the same as Vandoorne's Q3 time. Interpret that as you wish https://twitter.com/F1/status/892704588851236865

There is a spec between spec 3 and 4....as reported about 10000 times.

LOL. If I believed everything reported I'd be mental. I trust data and Wazari

Me opposite....everything Wazari said was true but dates were completly different to his.

[godlameroso]

The gap last year between JB and Rosberg was approx 1.4 seconds in quali.

My mistake, true gap had Hamilton done a full out qualifying would have been more, but yeah still would have been under 2 seconds, here's hoping the gap is similar to last year.

[damager21]

If Wazari said timing was tight for Spec 4 at SPA, I would be surprised if they are testing the whole thing here. Llando Norris just did a 1:17.8, which is the same as Vandoorne's Q3 time. Interpret that as you wish https://twitter.com/F1/status/892704588851236865

Vadoorne's time in Q3 was on Supersoft while Norris set it today on Ultrasoft. Also there is more rubber on track now post race day and 1 day of test so track will be faster

[nzjrs]

There is a spec between spec 3 and 4....as reported about 10000 times.

LOL. If I believed everything reported I'd be mental. I trust data and Wazari

Me opposite....everything Wazari said was true but dates were completly different to his.

Wazari's dates were correct if you consider it was the idiot media and pressure from McL that renamed a sequence of small iterations as Spec 3 and thus created a Spec 4 from what, as Wazari said was more or less fast tracked after winter testing showed them they were ---. 6 months from winter testing puts true spec 3 around Spa. The last months of fixes have probably been putting out fires to fix correlation and to show they are making progress to avoid a divorce. The real test is if they have another architectural spec step post what people now call spec 4. Such a step would have to have been done in much less than 6 months, once they had fixed correlation issues. 2 major HW updates in the season would be truly impressive and show how much they are working. Whether it's possible or strategically interesting to do so is another matter.

[FvtecA]

The gap last year between JB and Rosberg was approx 1.4 seconds in quali.

My mistake, true gap had Hamilton done a full out qualifying would have been more, but yeah still would have been under 2 seconds, here's hoping the gap is similar to last year.

Haha, more numbers. I know its attractive to predict numbers based on last year's numbers. The difference at Hungary was 1.3 to 1.2 in 2017 and 16, Silverstone at 2.8 and 3.1, so that would mean its a good basis. But if we look at Montreal which is a more power sensitive track, it was 1.5 last year and this year McLaren didn't get out of q2 where the gap was 1.2 but Hamilton went a whole second quicker in q3, so it was more like 1.5 vs 2 s, which is a big difference.

http://www.marca.com/motor/formula1/201 ... b458f.html

Summary:

• Honda says vibrations mostly fixed, others are more skeptical and claim that part of the problem is still there.

• Another step forward after the summer break, probably not spec 4 but part of the spec 3 update.

• Baku update added 15 BHP.

• Engine is still far of being competitive.

• Spa update focuses on turbo and MGH-K

• McLaren can only switch engines if Honda cancels the contract (ends in 2021)

• Biggest update will come in October (40 BHP)

• Not in Japan, VS or Mexico is more likely

• Spec 4 targets Renault and should close the gap to Ferrari and Mercedes within 40-50 BHP

I don't like these numbers. If Spec 4 targets Renault then they should be within 20-25 HP of Merc not 40-50.

[GoranF1]

LOL. If I believed everything reported I'd be mental. I trust data and Wazari

Me opposite....everything Wazari said was true but dates were completly different to his.

Wazari's dates were correct if you consider it was the idiot media and pressure from McL that renamed a sequence of small iterations as Spec 3 and thus created a Spec 4 from what, as Wazari said was more or less fast tracked after winter testing showed them they were ---. 6 months from winter testing puts true spec 3 around Spa. The last months of fixes have probably been putting out fires to fix correlation and to show they are making progress to avoid a divorce. The real test is if they have another architectural spec step post what people now call spec 4. Such a step would have to have been done in much less than 6 months, once they had fixed correlation issues. 2 major HW updates in the season would be truly impressive and show how much they are working. Whether it's possible or strategically interesting to do so is another matter.

No....Wazari said many times that spec 4 was going to be big update around spa...he was talking about new pistons, cc, when in fact he did not have a clue about BAKU small update or the next SPA small update which Hasegawa confirmed to AS last week.