Manoah2u wrote: ↑22 Aug 2017, 00:46
why not ? They will have to, if they can't beat Merc or Renault - or Ferrari for that matter, then what's the use in participating? They need to not only reach the same power level of the Merc engine, they need to even beat it.
They know this and though things went down the wrong path somehow early on, that doesn't mean that the theory behind it can't still get there.
They decided to change the entire engine concept exactly because of this last year or so, which saw this engine being brand new and essentially Honda doing it all over again from day 1. No way on earth they wouldn't have done that if they dont believe they can achieve what is neccesary - beating Merc in power.
You could very well assume that last year's engine would not be able to have been developed enough to beat Mercedes engine which offcourse is still developing and upgrading too. So that question could go for last year's engine and i'm inclined to answer that in that case, they wouldn't have made it. Hence we have a different engine with all the starting problems but which essentially still adheres to a potentially valid formula. Their development path is going better and better and offcourse a limit/cieling will be reached at some point, but the big question is where is that point and just how far are they right now?
Funny enough, the question might not be that it's questionable whether another update will bring another 40hp, after the one coming up now, but just how much more relative upgrades does Honda have in the pipeline, meaning, let's go all out positive and say sure, this upgrade will bring 30hp, then the 5th one will bring another 40hp [making it a step up of 70hp since Hungary] but there might even be another upgrade which would give them another 30hp.
offcourse one must also not forget that upgrades dont solely consist of bringing more power, as if it's a need for speed unlockable.
a lot is also down to driveability, fuel economy and reliability.
For example, next engine upgrade would be something that brings 30hp power, but not only that, but also improves fuel economy by a significant margin. Which would mean that in comparison, the current spec has that same fuel improvement, which means that they can now run that engine - without the additional 30hp added too - on more capacity [let's say hungary had a specification which had a theoretic 800hp but highly fuel consuming so they had to run it at 785 hp to finish the race. the fuel economy improvement then resolves that excessive fuel consuming problem and now they no longer need to de-tune the engine to 785 hp but can do a full race distance with the engine on it's fullest, meaning the full 800hp capacity is available. thus, they gain a couple of tenths.]
add to that that not only is the fuel problem solved, but the package also includes an upgrade where the heads at honda found a way to improve the cylinder heads [ just a total random example ] which would actually give the engine itself another 30hp of more power.
so then the net efficiency is that they not just get 30hp more with the new spec upgrade, but that this upgrade 'package' also includes that fuel problem correction that you get a net boost of 45 hp over the engine ran before that upgrade.
in other words, that engine now has 830 hp vs the race before the previous spec had 785. that's a big difference.
if in the meantime there is also a simulation which says that if they replace the piston design or the valve design or whatever with a bit different one, it'll bring them another 40hp. - i know it's not that simple, but let's just keep it easy to paint a picture - and now you get to a total of 870 hp [ICE only] where you, a couple of races/specs ago, only had 785. a 85 hp total gain.
that package also completely resolved the vibration issues of before so now you can mount that originally intended super-ERS you secretly developed but couldnt use because the vibrations murdered the cr*p out of its life, and you have an ERS that brings you a whopping 300hp additionally.
yes i'm exegerating.
the point is, it's like a domino effect. once , there was a vibration issue that wasnt calculated in before. that vibration destroyed the hybrid electric part of the engine which saw the need of replacing that with something that could take more vibration at the cost of a lot of power and reliablity still. now you've also downtuned the engine by far to minimize that vibration - it's not gone, it's effect is just less. like having unbalanced wheels and not hitting the 100kph mark which keeps the steering wheel [ and wheels offcourse] from vibrating on the highway. the problem is still there, but you don't notice it if you keep under 100kph.
finally you have fixed the vibration issue, start running again, and see that it is gone. you still havent brought back that hybrid electric part that initially got shattered, so you do that too and boom, you propel yourself a good amount forward.
so a really long story short;
i actually wouldn't be suprised to see a 30ph or 40hp increase.
