FvtecA wrote: ↑02 Aug 2017, 13:10
Now we want to solve the inverse problem. Once we see the qualifying numbers at Spa, and assuming that the next Honda upgrade is coming, we want to know how much HP will Honda be at. For my Hungary prediction I assumed that Hungary in principle is a similar track to Spain. I'll assume that Spa will be similar to Silverstone. So lead Merc to lead McLaren was at 2.8 s. Now Spa 2016 P1 was 1:46.744. Assuming there will be a 3.5 s improvement we'll say it will be 1:43.2 this year. So scaling that we get 3.3 s. So at current spec we are down 3.3 s. Now, how much does 10 HP give at Spa. Assuming 70 HP deficit at Silverstone, that's a whopping 0.4 s and scaling that takes us to 0.48 s.
Now we assume that by then this spec will be at 930 HP with all optimizations. Another thing I'll do is that I reduce deficit by 0.1 s every 15 HP simply for a halo effect since they can add more downforce with higher speed. So lets do the numbers again.
Baseline:
(995 - 930)*0.48 - 0.0 = 3.1
+15 HP
(995 - 945)*0.48 - 0.1 = 2.3
+30 HP
(995 - 960)*0.48 - 0.2 = 1.5
+45 HP (Too optimistic)
(995 - 975)*0.48 - 0.3 = 0.7
So, near Spa, we'll see more speculations from different sources about how much HP they'll bring. And once qualifying happens, if these numbers are reasonable we'll know roughly how much HP it is.
So lets check back with the numbers. Though I must provide a caveat since others have complained that these HP numbers don't mean anything in this formula. So I'll only say that the HP numbers I am using is just a model that represents how much time is being lost due to engine alone.
So qualifying. Unfortunately, it would have been better if Alonso had gone into Q3 and we would have final numbers so we have to make an added layer of assumption. So assuming that Alonso's time would have been the same in Q3 considering Hulkenberg's time was the same, he lost 2.5 s to Hamilton.
If we correct for 2.5 s in the above model, we get
+15 HP
(995 - 941)*0.48 - 0.07 = 2.5
So, its close to the 15 HP we were lead to believe by previous rumors if the starting point was 925 HP. That suggests we are at 940 HP. Now to confirm these numbers, I would need to do a similar analysis at Monza. Unfortunately, while Silverstone seemed a good model for Spa, I don't know which circuit to use for Monza. Baku? Austria? Spa?
