They're really going to struggle in Baku then, that one has straights that go on forever, but China is in 3 days so maybe Alonso can redeem himself, he has to average 5th so lucky podium? The field is so tight that any mistake will lead to disaster, so far McLaren has kept it's nose clean while the updates are being worked on. I imagine we won't see the real McLaren until June, the big step comes for either Austria or France if things go according to plan(they never do).
If we take the gain McLaren made over last year on average being 2.5 seconds that means they would have qualified ahead of Red Bull last year in China. If the trend continues this weekend they stand poised to have a much better weekend.
It seems the tires work in the following manner.
The ultra soft is faster than the soft tire but lasts almost as long in the race. The yellow tire is marginally faster than the white tire but lasts less. If I were doing the race strategy, I'd do the opening stint on ultra softs, pit again for ultra softs and finish the race on mediums. The mediums are the ideal tire to stretch out the race but are not a good starting tire. The performance and life of the ultra soft renders the soft tire obsolete. Likely both the soft and ultra soft will be good for something like 14 laps, the softs will degrade in the rear too quickly relative to the front making the car undrivable. The ultra soft will suffer the same fate but because the tire has inherently more grip the window to the car becoming undrivable is similar to the soft. Thus stint one should go to lap 14-16 on either the ultra or soft tire, but the medium tire can easily do 35 laps with improving or at worst consistent pace throughout. That would mean 6 laps of holding on for dear life and likely having to defend against a faster car.
The only other option is US US M doing 2 13 lap stints, which would put you at lap 26, then 30 with the mediums, pushing like crazy in the corners the whole time. Such a strategy would allow you to fuel save during the second US stint while keeping up the pace, then going aggressive towards the end with tires that will hold up throughout.