astracrazy wrote: ↑02 Jul 2018, 12:45
If there had been no VSC, it would have been an easy victory - drive to half way of the GP, manage the gap to the front and safely get to the end of the race.
This is where we fundamentally disagree. Yes, it was a one-stop race, but where that one-stop takes place is very much relevant. There two keypoints to consider:
1.)
The temperatures during the race were significantly higher than during Friday FP1 & FP2. This means most teams only had limited (less relevant) data for tire wear under these conditions. They also had little to no intel on blistering. It may have been a one-stop, but when that stop takes place is very relevant. For example; Would it have worked to stop on the first lap and run extremely long? Probably not. Every tires stint is dictated by the pace and the wear you get on them. Run longer, the pace needs to be less, run shorter, you can allow higher pace. The important thing is getting it right and balancing track position vs. stint performance and length.
2.)
At the point of the VSC, as a leader of the race, you are always going to be facing two dilemmas. You are the first to gets to decide to jump or not. If you don't jump (e.g. not pit), others can and will. If you do jump (pit), others may not and gain track position on you. You don't have the luxury to mirror the teams strategy driving behind you.
The VSC came out on lap 15 of a 71 lap race. That's roughly at a quarter of the race. Pitting then, meant having to do 56 laps on whatever tire you'll go on to. We have no idea what the simulation runs from Friday suggested, but the reality is that the higher temperatures were a game changer. Hindsight did show us that doing 56 laps on the soft tires were doable on some cars, but on all cars? On the Mercedes? With the blistering? Even in clean air? That is not clear at all. It could have just as well turned out differently - Ferrari and RB pitting early and then having to stop again towards lap 50 and Mercedes stopping midway once and getting to the end easily while retaining the lead.
Yes, hindsight showed us lots of things, but these things weren't predictable on lap 15.
What I however find more disturbing is that - having just watched that part of the race - why in gods name was the VSC sent out in the first place? The car was at a point where the double waved yellows were more than sufficient, there wasn't any danger of a car hitting that part of the track and there wasn't any debris either. Compare this to Ricciardo's or even Hamilton's retirement where the car was in a much more dangerous position (right next to the track) and there was no VSC there. I don't want to call foulplay or anything, but you do have to question the reasoning behind when and why a VSC is triggered.