marvin78 wrote: ↑30 Jul 2018, 11:13
I never believed that rain equalizes things. I never did. That's a myth built by driver fans, I think. I might be wrong but I think I am not. It does not equalize, it moves some things.
The 'equalizer' in rain is down to various factors; On a typically dry track, the difference between drivers is pretty small as the biggest differentiator is the car. A good car will be quicker, even if it is driven by a mediocre driver vs a slower car with a better driver.
On a wet track, the weakest link is no longer the car, but the driver. Yes, the car is still important, as downforce, traction and tire temperatures are key elements in how much a driver can shine or not. But overall, the driver has a much bigger influence under such conditions. Mainly though, in the rain, it's all down to confidence and perhaps the drivers ability to naturally adapt to the changeable conditions. Arguably throughout Hamiltons career, he has always been said to be one of those drivers (other drivers not excluded). It doesn't mean Hamilton is faultless or that he is always the fastest under such conditions, but that he has a certain talent under those conditions is pretty undisputed.
Of course, the opposite holds true too; If a driver lacks that confidence under those conditions, it can compound the problem; He might be more cautious than necessary and thus lose more heat in the tires. That will then lead to less grip to the point he loses even more confidence. A driver on the opposite spectrum might not get to that point, as he might be still more aggressive and thus suffer less from the above.
I think Schuttelberg made a terrific post on this; I think the key element was that the shunt in Hockenheim most probably dented Vettels confidence (under such conditions). He had the win in his hands before the rain fell and went from 25 points to zero within a lap. Obviously, with how tight the WDC is this year, every mistake could be very costly. He then finds himself in another wet qualifying session with the pressure high and it comes down to a question "risk vs reward". It was a fantastic drive by him to finish 2nd and minimize points loss to Hamilton. I think looking up ahead at the next 4 races, Ferrari are going to be difficult to beat, but I don't think Mercedes will be that far behind.