godlameroso wrote: ↑15 Oct 2018, 23:38
Suppose they make a much better car next year, where would it land? A second a lap gain would still have them 1.7 seconds off the leaders. Precisely where they were in Barcelona, impossible that they gain 2.7 seconds over the winter to close the gap. I think they can gain 1.5 from the early focus and maybe another .3 from a better Renault. So with luck, if everything works perfectly they'd be just under a second off the pace. If they can get the ultimate gap within a second it'll be a sucessful season, after that, its just a matter of chipping away.
I think there's a lot of lap-time to be gained from the "fundamental" problems in the design that have plagued them, as well. We don't know how much exactly, but we know it's significant. Add to that the early development for new regs and it's looking much better, relatively speaking. My main concern is the new team establishing a successful development direction and the Renault engine. Without time & stability there aren't any championships and even if that's sorted and they have good chassis and aero, Renault just seems so far behind with the engine. The steps they make in a year are being made by others twice in one season. On top of that we don't even know how the new Petrobras fuel is, which is so crucial in this formula.