I apologize for never answering. It's an interesting chart, but I don't live in London, so it's hard for me to make sense of the above link you provided on tube usage supposedly declining. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the above chart doesn't necessarily prove that tube usage is decreasing. Merely that there are (many) stations where the entries/exit stat is decreasing, while there are others that are increasing. Given that the population of most cities are increasing, I'd find it hard to believe that people would be changing from being "tube commuters" to fighting their way through congested traffic.henry wrote: ↑15 Nov 2018, 19:56@phil
You suggest that people will prefer public transport and offer the London Tube as an example. Strangely enough rider numbers are slowly going down on the tube network, even as congestion on the roads gets worse. Here’s a charming website where you can compare the journey numbers on the network. http://tubecreature.com/#/total/current ... 9/51.4989/ It shows the change in station entry/exit events from year to year. TFL are concerned about this because their plans have been predicated on steadily rising numbers.
A few questions:
- is it really a decline or are they shifting from station to station?
- how many of that decrease is due to tourism (e.g. not locals and commuters)?
- You are comparing 2016 with current. Is that a fair comparison?
- if people are not using tubes, could they be using buses or walking instead?
As I said, I'm not from London, so it's hard for me to argue specific trends in that city. I'm sure there's a perfectly reasonable answer behind it though, that isn't "they suddenly decided to use cars".
The cost of running cars are becoming more expensive. Gasoline prices are going up. At the same time, inefficiency is increasing due to spending more time in congested traffic. Simply compare any car's fuel usage on uninterrupted highway commutes to stop & go traffic. Hybrids and electric cars help, but more demand of [electric] energy means prices will increase there too. Back to using vehicles in the city: Parking is extremely expensive and is increasing, given the room for parking spaces is limited too. This all leads to the simple fact that the cost of using a car as a daily commute is increasing over time. At the same time, the time needed to get there (and back) is also increasing.
Assuming you live in a place where there is public transportation, you can do the simple math of comparing prices and time. Here in Switzerland, using public transportation (the train network) is much much cheaper than factoring in car ownership, maintenance, fuel and parking costs. It's also a lot quicker too.
Of course there is a point at which one might still prefer to use a car. Around 2 years ago, I used to use the car on a regular basis to get to the city on Saturdays for a bit of shopping. Then the city increased the cost of parking spaces even further to the point, it's no longer worth the hassle. Taking the train is much cheaper and quicker with less hassle involved.
How relevant is my situation to the world public? To you? To anyone else? That really depends how good PT is in your area, how high the cost of driving is, how congested the roads are. But given population is increasing and that there are more and more cars on the road leading to an increase in congestion, I think the question is not IF but WHEN will your place get there too. And when it does, will AVs solve anything?
. However, It would not surprise me if the majority of public transport and a huge slice of new cars sold in 10 years time are either fully AV or have the option to act autonomously in set locations, as I think many locations will be AV only by then.