2019 Aston Martin Red Bull Racing - Honda F1 Team

[godlameroso]

I think you should take into account that they have a new pu supplier and new aero rules they still a lot to learn

Not disagreeing... I’m just stating that as expected, Marko was overhyping the car... Comments such as “the best car we have ever made”, didn’t help... But it’s way too soon and I’m sure that they will develop the car quickly, will they close the gap to Mercedes, Ferrari? Not so sure about it...

Probably the biggest takeaway is that from a top speed perspective, it seems that the PU’s are finally converging and that’s great news.


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It is the best car they've ever made, it's over half a second faster than last year's car despite having to fit a new power unit. Just optimizing the integration can bring some performance, as good as it is it can always be made better, otherwise what's the point of hiring engineers.

To me, and take with a grain or pound of salt, the car isn't running enough wing for this specific track(not entirely their fault either, a learning experience). The power they have, they could afford to run a bit more downforce and drag compared to Mercedes and Ferrari. Granted it's a moving target from track to track, so yes as the season wears on, and they know how to balance drag, downforce, and top speed to get the best time from the package the performance can improve.

In Q3 Max lost most of his time to Hamilton on corner exit, and non DRS straights, indicating the Mercedes lump still has some extra grunt, and either the car is packing more downforce in general, or the suspension is working better on slow corner exits. I'm going with the former, they can live with slightly lower top speeds because they still have a power advantage, and more time is gained in the corners.

[McMika98]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/47527705

Pleasantly surprised by this account from a so called secret aerodynamicist, i was sceptical first especially given the quality of BBC articles when it comes to F1, Benson enough said. He mentioned that Merc might have long term benefit as they are utilising the front and rear for downforce.

[SmallSoldier]

Compared to both Mercedes and Ferrari, Red Bull have had to make far more significant changes this year.

• Integrating a new power unit.

• From above, making alterations to the rest of the drive train, chassis, bodywork, everything in other words, to incorporate the Honda PU.

• Adapting to the new aerodynamic rules.

• Integrating a new driver.

Mercedes have only had to adapt to the new rules.

Ferrari have a new driver, who most would consider an upgrade on the old one (no offense to Kimi), otherwise its just the rule changes for them as well.

Getting on the second row is a positive outcome, and if they are fighting for the podium tomorrow that would be an excellent start for the season.

The one piece missing in your analysis is that they are stating that their current PU is better than the previous one, not only in terms of power, but also in terms of packaging... therefore the expectation was that they would close the gap they had to Ferrari and Mercedes and the reality is that teams like Haas, Renault and Mclaren are closer to them than they are to the top 2


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And they are better then Renault, Verstappen P4, Renault P11 and P12

And that was the expectation... It was expected for them to be ahead of Renault... But when it comes down to improvements, the reality is that they have move backwards and not forward and that’s not my opinion, it is what the data shows:

Their lap time improved from 2018 to 2019 by 0.56 seconds, while Mercedes and Ferrari improved by 0.68 and 0.64 respectively, therefore the gap to them has increased... When talking about Renault, they improved from 2018 to 2019 by 0.97 seconds, therefore closing their gap to Red Bull by 0.37 seconds (which means that Red Bull has moved closer to Renault than they have to Mercedes and Ferrari).

So, if as they claimed (Marko) that their 2019 car is “The Best Car” they have ever built and that also according to them, the Honda PU is better than the Renault PU, the expectation is that they would have closed the gap to Mercedes and Ferrari and be even farther from the rest of the midfield and that’s not the case “in Melbourne”.

We have a very long season ahead and things can and will change... But the fact that they got it wrong in their predictions is a reality today... Since either the Honda PU isn’t better than the Renault or this year’s car isn’t better than last year, regardless of, they have not move forward “yet”.

Also proves my point last week when I told you that the China upgrade that was rushed in was because they were farther from the top than they wanted to admit, without it they could have been behind Haas at Melbourne... Which shows that them not showing great pace in Barcelona wasn’t a fluke or head games or sandbagging.


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[SmallSoldier]

Compared to both Mercedes and Ferrari, Red Bull have had to make far more significant changes this year.

• Integrating a new power unit.

• From above, making alterations to the rest of the drive train, chassis, bodywork, everything in other words, to incorporate the Honda PU.

• Adapting to the new aerodynamic rules.

• Integrating a new driver.

Mercedes have only had to adapt to the new rules.

Ferrari have a new driver, who most would consider an upgrade on the old one (no offense to Kimi), otherwise its just the rule changes for them as well.

Getting on the second row is a positive outcome, and if they are fighting for the podium tomorrow that would be an excellent start for the season.

The one piece missing in your analysis is that they are stating that their current PU is better than the previous one, not only in terms of power, but also in terms of packaging... therefore the expectation was that they would close the gap they had to Ferrari and Mercedes and the reality is that teams like Haas, Renault and Mclaren are closer to them than they are to the top 2


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The gap in your logic is that you are forgetting that neither Mercedes or Ferrari are static targets.

The Honda PU could indeed be better than last year's Renault, and the packaging could be better than last year too, but if Ferrari and Mercedes have improved by larger margins, they fall back.

I have no reason to doubt what Marko and Horner are saying; wait, I take that back. I don't believe a word out of their mouths as a general rule.

Marko and Horner are likely saying all the right things to the media to show solidarity with Honda. This is how you build a relationship. This is a rather alien concept, considering the way they dumped on Renault all the time, but that was at the back end of a 10 year relationship, this is the beginning of a new one.

That said, there is no data suggesting the Honda is worse than last year's engine. Today's result isn't a definitive vote of confidence for the engine, but there is certainly no empirical evidence that it is worse either.

All told, it is largely a situation of status quo, at least in qualifying. As I've already stated, that is an absolute success considering the amount of change initiated by the new engine supply.

Let's revisit this after the race.

I couldn’t agree with you more! But the fact remains that they overhyped both the car (best chassis they have ever built) and the PU been way better than Renault.

Been said that, you have a valid point in saying that probably the Honda PU is better than “last year’s” Renault and that could very well be an accurate statement... The data suggests though that Renault has also made a step forward and that we don’t know which of the PU’s is the better one this year... Renault and Mclaren made bigger jumps year on year than RBR, is it all due to their chassis or is it due to the PU? We really don’t know yet, so stating that RBR made the right move ditching Renault might be a mistake at this point since data seems to show otherwise.


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[Capharol]

You are claiming to agree to revisit after the gp (I would say better after 3) and still only take out the negatives

[ME4ME]

I think at this point Red Bull is still on the back foot, going by what the team is saying, what the drivers are saying and what has actually happened on track. Gasly's two crashes in winter testing have been costly. Red Bull doesn't seem to fully understand the RB15 yet - much like early 2017 after that particular regulation change. Verstappen is saying that they are still experimenting with set-up, and obviously thats true for parts of the car as well. The diffusor being one area where they were forced to compromise by putting traditional structural rods in place to stiffen it up. I think the team are going to make some major progress over the coming 2-3 races as they start to understand the car. I think the ingredients are there to challenge Ferrari over the season. Mercedes seems a step too far at the moment, but we'll see. Might be a fluke.

[garygph]

I think we can safely say that the Honda honeymoon period and love-in will be over soon, if it isn't already. They're roughly where they were with Renault really, but at least they have a manufacturer with resources that's only focusing on them.

No I disagree, I do not think we can safely say anything at all yet.

[etusch]

I think we can safely say that the Honda honeymoon period and love-in will be over soon, if it isn't already. They're roughly where they were with Renault really, but at least they have a manufacturer with resources that's only focusing on them.

Do you mean that Redbull build a chassis can go as fast as mercedes at Melbourne qualification but failed because of Honda?

[SmallSoldier]

The gap in your logic is that you are forgetting that neither Mercedes or Ferrari are static targets.

The Honda PU could indeed be better than last year's Renault, and the packaging could be better than last year too, but if Ferrari and Mercedes have improved by larger margins, they fall back.

I have no reason to doubt what Marko and Horner are saying; wait, I take that back. I don't believe a word out of their mouths as a general rule.

Marko and Horner are likely saying all the right things to the media to show solidarity with Honda. This is how you build a relationship. This is a rather alien concept, considering the way they dumped on Renault all the time, but that was at the back end of a 10 year relationship, this is the beginning of a new one.

That said, there is no data suggesting the Honda is worse than last year's engine. Today's result isn't a definitive vote of confidence for the engine, but there is certainly no empirical evidence that it is worse either.

All told, it is largely a situation of status quo, at least in qualifying. As I've already stated, that is an absolute success considering the amount of change initiated by the new engine supply.

Let's revisit this after the race.

I couldn’t agree with you more! But the fact remains that they overhyped both the car (best chassis they have ever built) and the PU been way better than Renault.

Been said that, you have a valid point in saying that probably the Honda PU is better than “last year’s” Renault and that could very well be an accurate statement... The data suggests though that Renault has also made a step forward and that we don’t know which of the PU’s is the better one this year... Renault and Mclaren made bigger jumps year on year than RBR, is it all due to their chassis or is it due to the PU? We really don’t know yet, so stating that RBR made the right move ditching Renault might be a mistake at this point since data seems to show otherwise.


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You are claiming to agree to revisit after the gp (I would say better after 3) and still only take out the negatives

I agree that we should revisit it after 3 or even 5 races... Melbourne isn’t a track that is representative of the season... I’m just stating the facts based on lap times.

Hoping for an exciting race tomorrow!


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[shingles]

It is THE FIRST race of the season on an atypical track. The sky isn’t falling.

[etusch]

Can Ferrari fight back?

The pre-season favourites for many, Ferrari have been blown away by Mercedes in the first qualifying session. However, whilst the Silver Arrows' one-lap pace brought a dominant Saturday for the Brackley team, it by no means rules out Ferrari on Sunday, or for the remainder of the season.

Last year, Ferrari's tactics and Mercedes' errors yielded a win for the Scuderia, despite a similar qualifying result, and we're yet to discover how each team performs in the real race runs, with added factors such as tyre wear.

It's worth remembering that even if Ferrari can't compete with Mercedes in race one, they fought back strongly in 2018 by taking pole position in the following three races.

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/aust ... innovation

[godlameroso]

It happened when McLaren moved to Renault engines, it was at best a lateral move. Only after a year were they able to rectify a lot of their issues. That Red Bull is starting where it is is both disappointing, and encouraging. Its a gap that can be closed but it'll take hard work and some luck. If both Honda, Red Bull, and the drivers step up it can be done.

Haas is still half a second behind, and that gap will only grow as the year continues.

Ferrari wasn't even able to match last year's Mercedes lap time. Neither could Red Bull. Just goes to show how strong Mercedes is as an organization.

[rogazilla]

...

Their lap time improved from 2018 to 2019 by 0.56 seconds,

...

Um the way I understand ‘the best car we have ever build’ means this car is faster or better than the last car we have built. How does that correspond to how others are doing? Red Bull didn’t say they built the best car on the grid.

[munudeges]

No I disagree, I do not think we can safely say anything at all yet.

Yes we can. You'll be saying that all year, as many of you usually do.

[Bill]

It's not inconceivable that Max can win the race if his start is better than vettel and Bottars being able to protect tires may pay dividend , last year Mercedes had a 0.7 tenth margin on redbull but ones we got to Bahrain it was reduced to 0.2 tenth I think a lot of people are jumping to conclusions without understanding the overall picture. Ferrari also has engine problems in quali so let's see how things pen out tomorrow