Where might Ferrari go wrong?
Looking at the performance of cars from testing - always a fool's errand but bear with me - you might conclude that the Ferrari-style front wing is doing the better job. The Ferrari appears the quickest car at the moment.
However, because of the need to back out the ends of the wing so much, it is always going to struggle to match the Mercedes style for absolute load.
Remember how we need to have a good balance of front and rear downforce? Well, as the teams develop through the season, putting on more and more downforce at the back of the car, Ferrari might struggle to balance it out at the front. If so, that would give them a car hamstrung with understeer which just won't turn into the corners.
On the Ferrari, there are already clues that they might be trying to compensate elsewhere for a lack of downforce generated from the front wing.
The area beside the driver, at the front of the sidepods, around what we call in F1 the 'barge boards', can produce a lot of downforce. The barge boards are the curved pieces that jut out from the main body of the car, and which direct the airflow in ways the designers want it to go.
The key with this, though, is that you want to keep as much energy in the air as possible, so as it travels down the car you can use that energy in the diffuser, at the back of the car.
Air from the bargeboard area flows under the floor beneath the driver before feeding straight into the diffuser. The faster you can get the air to flow through the diffuser, the lower the pressure under the car and the more downforce it creates, sucking the car on to the track. But lots of manipulation in this area carries the risk of losing energy from the air.
Mercedes have reduced the size of their bargeboards this year. This might mean they are generating less downforce at the front of their floor, but it gives them lots of potential to create plenty of downforce at the rear with the diffuser.
By contrast, Ferrari's bargeboards have got bigger this year.
This could be because they need to make up the front downforce which their front wing can't create. But it could well limit the ability of their diffuser to do its thing.
In this way, Ferrari's philosophy could not only give them problems balancing the car front to rear as the season progresses, but also limit the amount of total downforce it can create.
Ferrari might not be facing any problems now, and they certainly look to have started the year with a quick car.
But as the season goes on, I wouldn't be surprised to see Mercedes out-develop them, while the Scuderia find themselves stuck down a blind alley.
Startling accuracy.
The following is not meant to be a sarcastic/snarky question, just throwing that disclaimer out there in case it comes across that way, but I'm asking sincerely:
The team aren't so sure:
https://www.motorsportmagazine.com/repo ... rix-report“The limitations have become clearer this weekend,” said Mattia Binotto. “There is an understeer balance and not enough downforce. They have been there at the other races. But how long it takes to address is difficult to answer. It may even be the car concept.”