Esteban Ocon's future drives

[Manoah2u]

Ok, i'll elaborate a bit further.

2021 is when the driver market is going to flow again.
If the rules indeed are going to change in 2021, that means that teams themselves are looking in two ways for drivers:
1. keep one or get one with sufficient experience so they can develop the 'new' car(s)
2. if they don't already have one, attract a driver that is going to be their star driver and get them forward.

for the drivers themselves, this means potential opportunities to get into a team which has potential, or at the least, has more potential for success than the team they are currently finding themselves in.

Mercedes' dominance is naturally going to 'end' sooner or later and we already see that Ferrari and Red Bull are closing in.
There's some life in it, but then the competition is going to kick in. Not just that, but with the renewed design approach, teams need to follow different philosophies and as such changes the field and philosophy of the car's design. Lewis PROBABLY is going to grab his 6th title this season. Chances are still reasonably high that for 2020, he's still very much in the running for another title, so let's be fair and say it's believable he will approach his 7th title in 2020. It would make him equal with Schumacher in titles. That means if he wants to surpass Michael, which in the end he does, he needs to go on in F1, so i don't believe he's going to retire in 2021.

But he has had his success with Mercedes more than enough by now, even with Mclaren if we are honest, and i'm sure he's open for a new challenge. He has actually mentioned before Ferrari does interest him, and i'm certain Ferrari also has interest in Hamilton. If there's any moment where Hamilton might go to Ferrari, that would be, without doubt, 2021. And i'm pretty sure Vettel is not going to make the 2019 WDC, so he's going to give it one final run for 2020. Won't make it, i think, and Vettel will retire from F1.

What does this have to do with Ocon?

Well, it means that quite frankly, Mercedes' seats are occupied until the 2021 season - after all, Bottas is comfortable where he is, and even though i do believe that as of 2021, he's logically going to be open for a transfer, Mercedes' is going to need him too much, and since he has his career to thank to Toto Wolff for quite a lot, they'll make him an offer he won't refuse and as such, 1 seat is already occupied for 2021 and on.
It will be one Mercedes seat open in 2021 then.

Who will take that seat then?
As said, Vettel undoubtedly will retire, so no Vettel in there.

What's to choose from then?
Bottas is a strong driver, but not a superstar driver, and they need a superstar driver.
Who fits that criteria? Well, Verstappen does, Leclerc arguably does, and yes, Alonso does, but i seriously doubt he's going to make a comeback by 2021. If Ocon wants to have a chance on that seat, he NEEDS to be in a racing seat in 2020 somewhere and be competitive and show his potential. Right now, he simply can't. Where can he go in 2020? Well, again, Williams is occupied. The only Mercedes-powered team left is Racing Point, but even if Perez would leave, i doubt RP has interest in Ocon. That means Ocon needs to go to a non-Mercedes racing team.
The only team that for me looks like an option is Renault, to replace Hulkenberg. And i do believe, that if and when he does, that does have influence on whether he can go to Mercedes main team.

Thing is, there is no Mercedes - connected seat available next year, and Ocon CANNOT go another year without being in F1 if he wants to continue in that class, especially if he wants to have the slightest chance for a Mercedes seat. Wolff already stated they're not going to keep him from going to a 'competitor' team if he can't get a Mercedes connected seat - which again, there isn't. SO, IF Ocon is going to get a seat next year, it won't be with anything Mercedes, and probably will be with Renault, and if that happens, its an easy relationship termination with Ocon for Mercedes. So, end of Mercedes opportunity. Even if there would be a Merc seat at RP for example, it's still arguable whether he'd get to Mercedes by 2021. And again, that is IF Hamilton actually leaves.

And that's not even delving one more time into the fact that Verstappen is more experienced, matured and proven faster than Ocon, so again, they'd very much go with Max over Esteban. Again, it's a win-win for Mercedes if they get Verstappen because it also takes away a competitor from the enemy teams. It would render Red Bull more or less powerless if they'd manage to do that, depending on what Honda and Red Bull cook up in the coming season(s).
It would also take away the possibility that Verstappen goes to Ferrari alongside Hamilton, if such an opportunity arose, which i don't believe will happen as i expect Leclerc to stay with Ferrari for atleast to 2022 or 2023.

Renault is french, Ocon is french. Hulk at the end of his career, Ocon at the beginning.
Ricciardo is fast and experienced so Renault can afford to 'gamble' with Ocon.
Abiteboul is just like Ocon so that would make a 'perfect' friendship, and Renault would love having a frenchy at their french team. Ocon is also quite fast, so would be a great choice. After all, who else would they attract for 2020 except for 'gambling' with Kubica who they rejected before?

To me - Ocon in F1 - i think it's clear:

Ocon 2020 in Renault F1 Team.

It's the only possibility. If he doesn't go with Renault in 2020, he will drive for another racing class altogether in 2020.
Maybe remain a development test and reserve driver for Mercedes, but WEC/LM or Indy for sure.

Whilst being semi 'silly season' right now, if Perez calls it quits in 2020, which might or might not happen,
i think Russell will get promoted to Racing Point. Again, even if that seat becomes available, i don't think RP is open for Ocon to take that position. That means Williams has an option but Ocon would commit career suicide if he goes anywhere near Williams. Mercedes would want Russell at RP to see his development progress and mold him, guide him, and test him for one day replacing a mothership driver - that would probably be Bottas, and would be around 2022 or 2023. That means Russell will get 2 seasons at RP to prepare himself, which seems reasonable to me.

Why does this still import Ocon? Well,
By then - 2022 or 2023 - Ocon will have had all the time in the world to show his potential and make himself 'desired'.
And by then, after driving for Renault for a season or 2, he could find himself either staying at an improved and competitive Renault (being at the right place at the right time contrary to what is happening to him now), find an easy route towards Mclaren to replace Sainz (through Renault), OR get back to Mercedes and replace Bottas if he proves to be better than Russell. Or in a dream scenario, find himself replacing LeClerc by 2022 or 2023.

So again - Ocon in F1 must be with Renault in 2020. It's his only choice.

[roon]

Mercedes' dominance is naturally going to 'end' sooner or later and we already see that Ferrari and Red Bull are closing in.

This has been claimed every season since 2014. This is a unique formula in a unique time. The past may not repeat itself. Who is crafting the new ruleset? How involved is Mercedes in that process?

[NathanOlder]

Bottas has a bad 2nd half of the season, Mercedes feel he has underperformed again, and drop him. Obvious replacement is Ocon. ready to go, will 100%accept a number 2 role alongside Hamilton to help Lewis match Schumachers 7.

Ocon at Force India caused a little trouble because in his mind he would have been thinking, this is just a stepping stone, im going on to bigger and better things that this. It all went wrong, but if he had the chance to go to Mercedes race seat, he wouldn't hesitate in taking a number 2 role in season 1.

He can be the ideal replacement for Lewis when Lewis goes and will have a year to learn from racing the best.

Ocon to Merc is very much an option.

[Big Tea]

I understand you are 'pushing' Ocon to Merc, but what could he possibly have done that Botas has not? OK he dropped a place at monaco, possibly Canada, but would Ocon have done better over the season including pushing Lewis without smudging him?

I can not fault Botas this year, not perfect but who is (except Hamilton)

[Pyrone89]

I understand you are 'pushing' Ocon to Merc, but what could he possibly have done that Botas has not? OK he dropped a place at monaco, possibly Canada, but would Ocon have done better over the season including pushing Lewis without smudging him?

I can not fault Botas this year, not perfect but who is (except Hamilton)

Also Hamilton is not perfect as shown in quali last saturday and during the Austrian GP destroying his wing. Neither is Verstappen. And those 2 guys are clearly ahead of the field.

[Wynters]

Please no, the kid has serious issues with a large number of F1 drivers for being an absolute pr#ck in junior categories and in F1. And now he is to get the best car in the house as a reward. I also don’t see how this would fit with the said ‘obedient nr.2 driver’ policy as although he is clearly not in the Hamilton/Verstappen league or the Vettel/Leclerc/Ricciardo league and can thus be seen as a nr 2 just like Bottas, he has been a nightmare for the Force India team management.

Or as Lando Norris said in his Twitch stream of Goodwood: please Oc-off

Could you list the drivers he has 'serious issues' with? Because plenty of drivers in the current field have 'serious issues' with other current F1 drivers. Verstappen alone has had serious run ins with Bottas, Hamilton, Vettel, Leclerc, Ricciardo and Sainz. That's six of the top nine other drivers. It doesn't seem to be hurting his career (nor should it).

There is no 'obedient nr.2 driver' policy at Mercedes, otherwise, like Gasly, Bottas would finish behind Hamilton in every race and regularly be given a less developed car.

As for his speed, plenty of people who rate F1 drivers for a living think he's very, very fast and, given he's got to where he's got to without money easing the way at every step, he's got to have something. He was faster than Verstappen when they raced in F3(?). Faster than Perez last year (who is no slouch) and who resorted to running him off the road on repeated occasions in order to try and stay ahead of him.

There's every reason to think that, given a season to adjust to the car, he'd be very quick.

[Wynters]

Well, it means that quite frankly, Mercedes' seats are occupied until the 2021 season - after all, Bottas is comfortable where he is...

Why does Mercedes need Bottas next season? I'm sure I'd be 'comfortable' at Merc too, but Bottas is clearly a 'seat warmer' and nothing more. If he was more, he wouldn't be on a rolling 1-year contract.

Your surety that the one guarantee at Mercedes is Bottas simply isn't matched by the contractual position he is in.

The only Mercedes-powered team left is Racing Point, but even if Perez would leave, i doubt RP has interest in Ocon.

With Perez gone, why wouldn't RP want a fast, cheap driver who came with engine backing? Do you think Stroll is going to be on the same piece of asphalt? Or resort to crashing into Ocon to try and slow him down as Perez did? RP would bite Mercedes' hand off to get Ocon.

The only team that for me looks like an option is Renault, to replace Hulkenberg. And i do believe, that if and when he does, that does have influence on whether he can go to Mercedes main team.

There is reasonable evidence to suggest that Wolfe tried hard to place him at Renault for this year (and even had an unofficial deal in place to do so) so I doubt your conclusion that such a move would mean the end of his time at Mercedes has much foundation.

And that's not even delving one more time into the fact that Verstappen is more experienced, matured and proven faster than Ocon,

Verstappen is definitely more experienced and he certainly seems to have matured from last season's disaster-fest. But 'proven faster'? Evidence?

If Ocon replaces Bottas next year, he'll be no threat to Hamilton in his first year (because no one on the grid would be a threat in their first year in a new car) so that gets Mercedes safely to the rule change and the end of Hamilton's contract and they are well positioned to see what happens then.

[NathanOlder]

I understand you are 'pushing' Ocon to Merc, but what could he possibly have done that Botas has not? OK he dropped a place at monaco, possibly Canada, but would Ocon have done better over the season including pushing Lewis without smudging him?

I can not fault Botas this year, not perfect but who is (except Hamilton)

I'm not faulting Bottas, he has done a good job, but he has 0 potential to replace Lewis. Ocon has potential because he is an unknown quantity.

Merc don't really have anywhere to put Ocon other than in the Merc team, so its lose Ocon, or lose Bottas.

Merc will have Hamilton leaving in the back of their mind.

[Manoah2u]

Chemistry with Bottas within Merc works.
Ocon will guaranteed bring fire in there paired to Lewis.
I think Ocon-Bottas would work just fine, but i don't think that's a strong combination at all.

As for the ideas that there is no evidence on Verstappen being faster than Ocon, perhaps start actually looking at F1 live instead of reading reports or browsing forums.
Bottas is Wolf's in-house molded 'protogé', and will go nowhere but Mercedes on the relatively long term. That means, 3 years the least.

Thing is, the most important variable for the entire 'dance' on seat positions is how Honda and RedBull are going to compete in the (very) short Future.

I must say that RB is doing pretty splendid actually. I think there's no denying that Mercedes and Ferrari are, at the very least on engine / propulsion area, a good amount stronger
than Honda.

The fact that in the last races RedBull is creeping in on them and able to beat them is interesting.
I thoroughly enjoyed the battle between Leclerc and Verstappen, i really did. If Verstappen managed to position his car just a little better after initially overtaking LeClerc,
i think he would have managed to keep in front of him longer to eventually build a gap and speed away with his own tactic. Looking at how the race unfolded, especially if
that contact with Vettel had not occurred, I am pretty confident Max would have been P2, and might even creeped in close to Lewis.
There would have been no way he would have managed to actually overtake Hamilton, Lewis after all had an extra pitstop for free and as such, untouchable in battle,
but the thing is, it shows how close they get in the end.

SO, there is hope at the RedBull camp. BUT, if the improvement stagnates, and they keep missing every time, then IF a seat at Mercedes becomes available,
then Verstappen surely will concider that. I think the same goes for Ferrari, Vettel is making himself get the boot fast if he goes on like this.
Thing is, who would Ferrari snatch? Verstappen or Hamilton? I think Hamilton.

But i've said more than enough on the matter.

I simply can't see any reason for Ocon to end up in a Mercedes seat in 2020. That includes RP or Williams. Even Mclaren in a shock engine change.
So he can only end up at Renault to find himself a worthwile seat next to DannyRic.
Again, Ocon 2020 will be Renault F1 team to replace Hulkenberg OR in another racing series alltogether.
That will be WEC LM, Formula E or Indy.

[Pyrone89]

Please no, the kid has serious issues with a large number of F1 drivers for being an absolute pr#ck in junior categories and in F1. And now he is to get the best car in the house as a reward. I also don’t see how this would fit with the said ‘obedient nr.2 driver’ policy as although he is clearly not in the Hamilton/Verstappen league or the Vettel/Leclerc/Ricciardo league and can thus be seen as a nr 2 just like Bottas, he has been a nightmare for the Force India team management.

Or as Lando Norris said in his Twitch stream of Goodwood: please Oc-off

Could you list the drivers he has 'serious issues' with? Because plenty of drivers in the current field have 'serious issues' with other current F1 drivers. Verstappen alone has had serious run ins with Bottas, Hamilton, Vettel, Leclerc, Ricciardo and Sainz. That's six of the top nine other drivers. It doesn't seem to be hurting his career (nor should it).

There is no 'obedient nr.2 driver' policy at Mercedes, otherwise, like Gasly, Bottas would finish behind Hamilton in every race and regularly be given a less developed car.

As for his speed, plenty of people who rate F1 drivers for a living think he's very, very fast and, given he's got to where he's got to without money easing the way at every step, he's got to have something. He was faster than Verstappen when they raced in F3(?). Faster than Perez last year (who is no slouch) and who resorted to running him off the road on repeated occasions in order to try and stay ahead of him.

There's every reason to think that, given a season to adjust to the car, he'd be very quick.

1. Perez (obvious), Verstappen (obvious), Norris (see Goodwood video how he talks about him), Leclerc and Gasly (in their French karting days).
2. He was not faster than Verstappen in F3. Ocon was driving for the Prema Powerteam (think of it as the Mercedes of lower categories) while Ferrari was driving for Van Amersfoort (think of it as the Racing Point of lower categories). Furthermore Verstappen had more wins in the VA (who had never won a race before he arrived) than anyone else even with the engine penalty meaning he had a 10-place grid penalty drop for 3(!) races. Also from all the ontrack battles Verstappen won every single one except 1.
3. Verstappen may have classed with people on track, but not off it (and that is what we are talking about, team harmony and all). Ocon did both on plenty of occassions.

[Wynters]

Chemistry with Bottas within Merc works.
Bottas is Wolf's in-house molded 'protogé', and will go nowhere but Mercedes on the relatively long term. That means, 3 years the least.

So, again, why isn't he on a longer contract?

Looking at how the race unfolded, especially if
that contact with Vettel had not occurred, I am pretty confident Max would have been P2, and might even creeped in close to Lewis.

What evidence do you have that the RBR was faster than the Mercedes at Silverstone?

As for the ideas that there is no evidence on Verstappen being faster than Ocon, perhaps start actually looking at F1 live instead of reading reports or browsing forums.

Are you claiming that RBR and Force India had comparable cars last season? Seriously?

I don't appreciate the unprovoked personal attack, either. If you have to resort to insults instead of evidence to support your position, it suggests your actual position is pretty weak, no? If you want to reduce discussions in the forum to childish insults, take it to PMs, please.

[Wynters]

1. Perez (obvious), Verstappen (obvious), Norris (see Goodwood video how he talks about him), Leclerc and Gasly (in their French karting days).
2. He was not faster than Verstappen in F3. Ocon was driving for the Prema Powerteam (think of it as the Mercedes of lower categories) while Ferrari was driving for Van Amersfoort (think of it as the Racing Point of lower categories). Furthermore Verstappen had more wins in the VA (who had never won a race before he arrived) than anyone else even with the engine penalty meaning he had a 10-place grid penalty drop for 3(!) races. Also from all the ontrack battles Verstappen won every single one except 1.
3. Verstappen may have classed with people on track, but not off it (and that is what we are talking about, team harmony and all). Ocon did both on plenty of occassions.

That's an useful list, thank you. As many drivers have shown though, having other drivers not liking you is...well, fine.
It also good to hear Verstappen had more wins and won almost all the on-track battles. But Ocon was clearly fast enough to win overall. Undoubtedly, he was helped by his car (as is the nature of this motorsport) but he performed at the required level to win.
If you think Verstappen's relationship with Ricciardo was all sweetness and mutual respect, then I agree to disagree. Similarly, I don't remember Ocon picking a fight with another driver in the pitlane. Or threatening to headbutt a reporter. Or deliberately hitting another car. Again, being 'fiery' does not prevent you being successful in F1. If anything, it simply makes you more popular.

To be clear, I'm not criticising Verstappen. He's effectively irrelevant to this thread as it isn't an 'Ocon vs Verstappen' thread, although it's interesting that it's going that way, no? As I said in my post, plenty of people in the sport think Ocon is very fast. There's plenty of evidence that he'd be quick in a Mercedes. Verstappen is simply an example that you don't need to be universally popular to be quick.

[Manoah2u]

Chemistry with Bottas within Merc works.
Bottas is Wolf's in-house molded 'protogé', and will go nowhere but Mercedes on the relatively long term. That means, 3 years the least.

So, again, why isn't he on a longer contract?

because they made that contract before and wanted to investigate how it went down, which is normal.
i don't get why you are diving into that 1 year contract so much.

Looking at how the race unfolded, especially if
that contact with Vettel had not occurred, I am pretty confident Max would have been P2, and might even creeped in close to Lewis.

What evidence do you have that the RBR was faster than the Mercedes at Silverstone?

i don't know how you are reading, i also suggesteed you look at the race, if you do, you would have noticed that if vettel hadn't taken out max, he would have ended up P2. that's finishing faster than the mercedes of bottas.

max' his pace meant he would have even creeped up towards hamilton's mercedes - once again, i stated that there would be no way he would have overtaken him, but if he does that, he comes close enough and thus first of all is faster than the Ferrari, and if Lewis did not have had that extra pitstop done, then they would be in similar tire wear and as such, there might have been a possibility of fighting for P1. Austria also showed RB's potential.
so really, you're asking questions you already have the answer for yourself if you actually focused on the race.

As for the ideas that there is no evidence on Verstappen being faster than Ocon, perhaps start actually looking at F1 live instead of reading reports or browsing forums.

Are you claiming that RBR and Force India had comparable cars last season? Seriously?

where do i claim that. dont accuse me with things you invent from thin air.

I don't appreciate the unprovoked personal attack, either. If you have to resort to insults instead of evidence to support your position, it suggests your actual position is pretty weak, no?

wow, take a chill pill. breathe.

If you want to reduce discussions in the forum to childish insults, take it to PMs, please.

i think you're behaviour here right now is pretty childish to put it mildly, so, really, i don't know what has gotten into you. honestly, i think your reply breaths and shows a very, very aggressive and hostile composure.

calm down.

[Wynters]

because they made that contract before and wanted to investigate how it went down, which is normal.
i don't get why you are diving into that 1 year contract so much.

Because if they definitely wanted him to stay, why not offer him a contract as happens with other drivers up and down the grid both now, and historically. If 'Bottas is Wolf's in-house molded 'protogé'' and the 'chemistry works' why not offer him a contract? Why wait two years?

i don't know how you are reading, i also suggesteed you look at the race, if you do, you would have noticed that if vettel hadn't taken out max, he would have ended up P2. that's finishing faster than the mercedes of bottas...you're asking questions you already have the answer for yourself if you actually focused on the race.

I did. Mercedes pulled away easily at the start. Following the Safety Car, they dropped Max by 10 seconds within a handful of laps. That gap grows by, typically, an average of half a second every lap until the Vettel crash. The gap then grows faster, every lap until the end of the race. Bottas stays pretty much at the same distance from Hamilton all the way through the race until he makes his third pitstop. At which point he holds at around 22 seconds.

So, again. Apart from Max being slower every lap and Mercedes pulling a gap easily whenever they needed to and that Bottas would have spent the last part of the Grand Prix on fresher, faster tyres (with track position), what evidence do you have that Max was faster?

where do i claim that. dont accuse me with things you invent from thin air.

I didn't 'accuse you', I asked you to clarify. Note the question mark at the end instead of an unsubstantiated statement followed by insults. Please don't use Strawmen, it undermines your position.

wow, take a chill pill. breathe.

i think you're behaviour here right now is pretty childish to put it mildly, so, really, i don't know what has gotten into you. honestly, i think your reply breaths and shows a very, very aggressive and hostile composure.

calm down.

Hmm, the person politely requesting you leave personal insults at the door is the childish one who is 'very, very aggressive and hostile' and needs to calm down?

You a) continue to avoid any attempt to support your assertions and b) continue to attack me as a result. Thanks for proving my point so clearly and effectively.

[NathanOlder]

1. Perez (obvious), Verstappen (obvious), Norris (see Goodwood video how he talks about him), Leclerc and Gasly (in their French karting days).
2. He was not faster than Verstappen in F3. Ocon was driving for the Prema Powerteam (think of it as the Mercedes of lower categories) while Ferrari was driving for Van Amersfoort (think of it as the Racing Point of lower categories). Furthermore Verstappen had more wins in the VA (who had never won a race before he arrived) than anyone else even with the engine penalty meaning he had a 10-place grid penalty drop for 3(!) races. Also from all the ontrack battles Verstappen won every single one except 1.
3. Verstappen may have classed with people on track, but not off it (and that is what we are talking about, team harmony and all). Ocon did both on plenty of occassions.

That's an useful list, thank you. As many drivers have shown though, having other drivers not liking you is...well, fine.
It also good to hear Verstappen had more wins and won almost all the on-track battles. But Ocon was clearly fast enough to win overall. Undoubtedly, he was helped by his car (as is the nature of this motorsport) but he performed at the required level to win.
If you think Verstappen's relationship with Ricciardo was all sweetness and mutual respect, then I agree to disagree. Similarly, I don't remember Ocon picking a fight with another driver in the pitlane. Or threatening to headbutt a reporter. Or deliberately hitting another car. Again, being 'fiery' does not prevent you being successful in F1. If anything, it simply makes you more popular.

To be clear, I'm not criticising Verstappen. He's effectively irrelevant to this thread as it isn't an 'Ocon vs Verstappen' thread, although it's interesting that it's going that way, no? As I said in my post, plenty of people in the sport think Ocon is very fast. There's plenty of evidence that he'd be quick in a Mercedes. Verstappen is simply an example that you don't need to be universally popular to be quick.

My question after all that would be, If Max was as hot as everyone was saying from his karting days, why did he end up in a force india