Strategies in Brazil?

[Roland Ehnström]

All right, we know that to win the championship, Massa must win the race with Hamilton 6th or worse, or finish second in the race with Hamilton 8th or worse.

What do you think Ferrari's and McLaren's strategies will be like in Brazil? What will Ferrari do to try to get Hamilton to DNF or finish outside the top-5? What will McLaren do to make sure this doesn't happen?

My personal guess is this:

- Ferrari will give Massa a normal 2-stop strategy to give him the optimum chance of winning the race. Kimi on the other hand will be VERY light on fuel in Q3, to make sure he gets the pole-position and a good start, enabling him to take the lead and then slow the pace right down to hold up Lewis and everyone else during the first few laps, possibly hoping for some chaos behind...

- McLaren will also fuel Hamilton very light in Q3, and hope to get him on pole, as it is surely the safest place on the grid. They will also fuel Heikki light, trying to get him in front of Massa (and better yet: In front of Kimi) on the grid, to make sure Massa (nor Kimi) has no chance to make a dangerous move on Lewis in the first corner.

In this scenario, qualifying and the start will be extremely important. If Kimi gets in front of Lewis, anything could happen, while if Hamilton takes the lead, his championship is 99% safe.

One big question mark about Ferrari's strategy is Kimi: If he gets the lead in the start, will he really be interested in reducing his pace a lot to hold up Lewis? He's said he doesn't really care who wins the championship, and to me that means he will not be interested in doing much to hinder Lewis. He will of course give Massa a position if needed, like in China, but I doubt that he will be interested in doing much more.

A joker in the pack is Alonso: If he gets the chance, do you think he will do anything to put Lewis in a dangerous situation? And let's say that Alonso is leading on the final lap in front of Massa, with Lewis running 6th, will Alonso hand over the win to Massa, to steal the championship from Lewis? I doubt that he will give away a win, but he might well give away second place to Massa, if Lewis has DNF'd for example.

So, what do YOU think will happen?

[pliskinrob]

Whatever happenes theres going to be a huge shitstorm at the end

[axle]

I would expect;
LH and FM to be on optimum stratagies, ie the fastest solution according to a normal race.
If I was at McLaren or Ferrari I would short fuel KR and HK by a lap or 2.
If HK can lead the race and control the pace the Ferrari's are knackered.
If KR leads he can help Massa attack any McLaren in the way and then hand over the lead.

I'll just p1$$ myself if Heikki comes away with the win. Wouldn't it rub salt in the wound for the 2nd driver to lead home the WDC protagonists!

But then 2hrs after the race both McLarens would be DQ'd by the stewards handing the WDC and WCC to Ferrari.

[Roland Ehnström]

If HK can lead the race and control the pace the Ferrari's are knackered.

Hmm, if Heikki slows the pace down it risks getting very busy behind and that is definately not what Hamilton needs. If on the other hand Heikki pulls away, Kimi can let Massa past and then slow down Lewis, again putting Lewis in a risky position.

The best thing for McLaren would be to use Heikki as a cushion between a light-fuelled Hamilton and the two Ferraris. Having Heikki way out front wouldn't really help them (except if they are really planning to go for the constructor's championship too, which I think they should not).

So if I were Ron Dennis I would give both Heikki and Lewis a very light fuel load in qualifying, giving them the optimum chance to get Lewis into the lead in the start. They will probably lose positions to the Ferraris in the first pit stop, but it doesn't matter since all they need is to finish 5th. They can even afford to lose positions to, say, Alonso and Kubica too, without needing to worry. What they do NOT want, is having Lewis on the third row on the grid, from there all hell can break loose...

[axle]

Yep indeed that would work too, I think Quali is going to be fun

[Sawtooth-spike]

If i was ron.

I would not try and do anything Smart, just make sure your ahead Renaults and BMW's

If Ferrari try to slow down the pace then they run the risk of being jumped at the pit stops. Lewis just needs to put it in 3rd place and just do nothing stupid. Or if he does like last weekend Ferrari are stuffed.

Ferrari have to go out and beat Mclaren for Massa to win.

Remember, Effectively Lewis can Let both Ferrari's past him and still win.

He just needs to make sure he does not press the wrong button again.

I think Ferrari will fight for the construtors first and the Drivers second, as that is the safest bet. If they can take both they will, but they wont risk one for the other. Same could be said for Mclaren just the other way around.

[axle]

I will laugh if Lewis and the Interlagos spec aero that McLaren are doing, just walks away with the race and the title...

[WhiteBlue]

EDIT: Tomba has asked me to make it clearer what is opinion and what I know for fact. So here we go, you'll have it in brackets.


McLaren will operate extremely risk adverse in qualifying and the race. (according to Dennis)

In qualifying with Hamilton they will take it easy in Q1 and Q2 just making sure they get ahead. In Q3 they will probably go for a very light load to stay out of any first corner incident a la Fuji. Heikki will probably have optimum race strategy to be up front where he can do something whatever is needed. (IMO)

If a choice must be made for WDC or WCC they will opt for the driver. (IMO)

They will totally focus on finishing the race with Hamilton compromising even race win for that goal, at least that is what Dennis said after the race in China.

[freedom_honda]

the best strategy for Lewis would be go VERY light to make sure he would stay ahead of Kimi out of T1 and avoid all the T1 chaos, just to play it safe.

and the best strategy for Ferrari would be having Kimi or Alonso to ram Hamilton off the track at T1. (sorry but im just telling truth) other than that, get Kimi on a very light fuel load, and delibrately hold up Hamilton, so Massa can get pass Hamilton after his pitstop and pray that something would happen to Hamilton.

[DaveKillens]

For any sport, the best strategy is to keep doing with whatever gave you success. So in most areas, McLaren will try to stick with their normal routine. But given the circumstances, Hamilton only has to finish 5th or better. Given that the most hazardous time is on the start and first two laps, I would suggest qualifying on an exceptionally low fuel load, to guarantee being ahead of any potential problem. Pitting early most likely surrenders two or three positions, but would still keep Hamilton in the big picture. Heikki starts with a fresh engine and with the sole purpose of protecting Hamilton. So expect him to qualify well (Hopefully 2nd) so he can control the red cars behind him.
The real threat will come from BMW and/or Renault. If either make does well, they could jump in there and contest for positions 3rd to 7th.. that could result in a messy furball.
For Ferrari, they can only aim at Massa winning, and hope for problems with Hamilton.

[Scuderia_Russ]

What do you think Ferrari's and McLaren's strategies will be like in Brazil?

Drive fast, don't crash.

[Rob W]

Drive fast, don't crash.

True. Keep it simple.. Lewis realistically needs a 6th place or better. He could do that in his sleep if he doesn't clam up.

What will be interesting is if Lewis is running 7th, Massa 1st and Heikki 2nd or 3rd with two laps to go... Wonder if the 'massive engine failure' button will be on Heikki's steering wheel then?

What if it was obvious he just stopped to let four or five cars past? Imagine the PR nightmare that would be for F1 to explain?

R

[PlatinumZealot]

5th is 4 points right? so it's fifth or better for LH..

I think heki has to stay right on Hamilton's Tail ALL the way to the end.. to prevent any critical attacks from the rear on LH.. he has to be the Body guard to keep away those BMW's and that Renault.. if the Two Ferraris are in front then no problem.

[arfanto]

As Ron mentioned (or you can read "Ron guarranted.."), at some websites, that the spectators will only watch a boring race at the end of this season at Sao Paulo just to ensure WDC goes to them.

So it means.. just put a simple and normal strategy as the other normal race: LH MUST across the finish line (no accident, no puncture tires, no engine blow, no gearbox problem, no..) and to get as much possible poin. If LH able to keep stay at P1 from the pole until across the finish line so nothing worries about.

[andartop]

If I was Ron I would ask Lewis not to take part in Quali at all and thus start the race last on the grid. I would totally trust Ferrari to screw it up themselves as they had been doing all year long. With a couple of safety cars I would even bet on some points, so even if Ferrari did not screw up Lewis would still win it.
In the extremely unlikely scenario that Lewis manages to lose this Championship, I would just try to stay away from F1technical.net until March 2009 to avoid all the same old people ranting about the same old conspiracy theories - i' d rather buy the X-Files DVD Box set and watch that instead.
If I was Di Montezemolo I would sell half of Ferrari and get Ross Brawn and Jean Todt back.
If I was Felipe I would call Schumi and ask for his luck charm.
If I was Kimi I would just show up at the race drunk.