The thing is, you never get 100% accuracy on testing and simulation models. Wind tunnels are good to calculate how much downforce the car can produce, but in reality that number is usually not very accurate on real situations.
That is because the air/wind is not always constant in its parameters and that changes a lot of variables.
Also there is another big thing to take into consideration. F1 cars need their downforce on curves. And when the car is turning, the front tires are angled and the weight of the car shifts to one side. This totally changes the aero balance of the car and wind tunnels and CFD simulations cannot account for it completely.
Aerodynamicists have to do a lot of calculations to make the bodywork generate the same, or close to the same amount of downforce that it is shown by the wind tunnel even when the aero balance changes during corners.
That's where bad correlation comes from. If people get those calculations wrong, then you have big problems because the car is not generating the downforce the wind tunnel says it should and it is not always easy to pinpoint the reason why.