2019 Mclaren F1 Team - Renault

[bauc]

They can afford to as the gap in front of them and behind them is quite large.

you call 30 points ahead of TR large? two full DNF's and this gap is gone

51 point over 13 races is a 4 point a race average for STR... I count 8 more races to catchup and pass McLaren.

Mclaren is far away from securing 4th, but they are on pole position

[diffuser]

i for one see chassis playing a majoy role on the durability of these engine. look at ferrari, no engine problems but we saw in the alfa, mercedes team still going good but look what happen to RP and williams. mclaren chassis problem still not optimized to give renault durability. just like those years with honda but instead honda took all the blame for poor chassis design by mclaren

I think that logic is flawed. 2016, Mercedes works team suffered from most, if not all engine related failures, as did Ferrari. Last year Red Bull suffered the bulk of the Renault engine failures, with the superior chassis. You could argue for and against, so at best, it's inconclusive.

Sometimes the way 1 team uses a PU is slightly different than another. This slight different cause one of the teams to have more failures. It does not mean that either of the teams are using the PU incorrectly. just an issue with the PU that only 1 team is exposing.

[Capharol]

They can afford to as the gap in front of them and behind them is quite large.

you call 30 points ahead of TR large? two full DNF's and this gap is gone

51 point over 13 races is a 4 point a race average for STR... I count 8 more races to catchup and pass McLaren.

where do you count 51 points ? its 31 to Toro Rosso

4 McLaren Renault 82
5 Scuderia Toro Rosso Honda 51

[diffuser]

you call 30 points ahead of TR large? two full DNF's and this gap is gone

51 point over 13 races is a 4 point a race average for STR... I count 8 more races to catchup and pass McLaren.

Mclaren is far away from securing 4th, but they are on pole position

Any team below McLaren will need atleast 90 points to beat them. The odds on them scoring 40 points in 8 races when they've scored 50 or less in 13 is low. Is it possible yes. Plausible No. I'd give it a 10% chance of occurring.

[diffuser]

you call 30 points ahead of TR large? two full DNF's and this gap is gone

51 point over 13 races is a 4 point a race average for STR... I count 8 more races to catchup and pass McLaren.

where do you count 51 points ? its 31 to Toro Rosso

4 McLaren Renault 82
5 Scuderia Toro Rosso Honda 51

51+31=82

[Ground Effect]

you call 30 points ahead of TR large? two full DNF's and this gap is gone

51 point over 13 races is a 4 point a race average for STR... I count 8 more races to catchup and pass McLaren.

where do you count 51 points ? its 31 to Toro Rosso

4 McLaren Renault 82
5 Scuderia Toro Rosso Honda 51

You’re too eager to to make your point, that you’re not even reading correctly. He’s discussing averages here. STR has 51 points from 13 races. That comes to an average of 4 points per race over the first 13 races. If that trend continues, over the remaining 8 races.

[Capharol]

51 point over 13 races is a 4 point a race average for STR... I count 8 more races to catchup and pass McLaren.

Mclaren is far away from securing 4th, but they are on pole position

Any team below McLaren will need atleast 90 points to beat them. The odds on them scoring 40 points in 8 races when they've scored 50 or less in 13 is low. Is it possible yes. Plausible No. I'd give it a 10% chance of occurring.

yes McLaren has a really good chance, i don't deny that, but as said two DNF's or no point scoring and that gap could be gone.
for example let something like German GP happen.....
but forgett this discussion ...

[Jackles-UK]

I’m still more worried about Renault & Racing Point than I am Toro Rosso. Take away the freak once-in-a-decade result in Germany and they’ve actually only picked up 25-30 points and have been generally only collecting 2-3 points a race, if at all.

Renault & Racing Point have scored big (6+ points at a race weekend) on more occasions than Toro Rosso and with some high speed tracks to come where both have performed well this season I still see them as the ones to beat.

[FittingMechanics]

Honestly McLaren shouldn't be worried for 4th unless their/PU reliability stays like it was in Spa. If they are racing, they will get some points and the gap is too large to catch unless if a team gets very lucky in a race or two (like TR with Germany).

[diffuser]

Right now the top 4 spots are locked up (#2 and #3 might switch) but aside from that they're pretty much a lock.

the battles is on for #5 though.


The race for #2 and #3, aside from Singapour, the 2nd part of the season seams to favour Ferrari. So RBR will need to get more slipppery in the aero or Ferrari keeps doing stupid things and throwing points away.

[wesley123]

They can afford to as the gap in front of them and behind them is quite large.

you call 30 points ahead of TR large? two full DNF's and this gap is gone

Assuming they score enough points and assuming McLaren doesn't score any points, which I sincerely doubt to be the case.

So I calculated a few things. Toro Rosso outscored McLaren on 6 occasions, Whereas the other way around it happened on 7 occasions.
In this, Toro Rosso outscored McLaren on a total of 26 points. Making their average 4.33 points.
McLaren outscored Toro Rosso for a total of 57 points, making an average of 8.14 points.

So assuming Toro Rosso does outscore McLaren on every race by their average, that would mean that STR beats McLaren by ~4 points. Essentially this means that McLaren needs just a single good race to secure their 4th place.
Even if we assume that Toro Rosso scores their season average minus double DNF(5,1), they would only win by 9 points, which is McLarens average(9,1) Because Toro Rosso would then win based on their 3rd place, McLaren would need another race in the points.
Simply put, this would mean that McLaren can DNF in most races and still secure 4th.

So yes, the gap behind them is quite large.

[Capharol]

They can afford to as the gap in front of them and behind them is quite large.

you call 30 points ahead of TR large? two full DNF's and this gap is gone

Assuming they score enough points and assuming McLaren doesn't score any points, which I sincerely doubt to be the case.

So I calculated a few things. Toro Rosso outscored McLaren on 6 occasions, Whereas the other way around it happened on 7 occasions.
In this, Toro Rosso outscored McLaren on a total of 26 points. Making their average 4.33 points.
McLaren outscored Toro Rosso for a total of 57 points, making an average of 8.14 points.

So assuming Toro Rosso does outscore McLaren on every race by their average, that would mean that STR beats McLaren by ~4 points. Essentially this means that McLaren needs just a single good race to secure their 4th place.
Even if we assume that Toro Rosso scores their season average minus double DNF(5,1), they would only win by 9 points, which is McLarens average(9,1) Because Toro Rosso would then win based on their 3rd place, McLaren would need another race in the points.
Simply put, this would mean that McLaren can DNF in most races and still secure 4th.

So yes, the gap behind them is quite large.

i love your stats (although i made them myself already) and i already said McLaren has a good chance of taking this 4th place..... and stats are just used for theoratical assumptions, which can be thrown in the bin after these numbers doesn't add up.... so my suggestions is.... lets wait till it really happened (which is highly likely, but there is still a few buts to consider)

[Bill]

The maximum a team can score in one gp is 44 points the battle for fourth is far from over. Str scored with 2 times with both cars in 8 races with Gasly and kyvat 1 times in 1 race if these trend continues and they score with both car in every gp plus reliability issues from Renault mclaren will be in trouble.

[gokarter]

mclaren is going to take 4th, its highly unlikey TR or any other team besides the top3 can close in. Tr has gasly who really is struggling. his race pace in general has been his weak point. that gap will not be easy to close down. unless we get wet races that favour TR

[ThePapayaJaguar]

Seidl confirmed that in both cases, the problems were only associated with SU. Renault owe us a race.

The cause of the gatherings in both cases, according to Seidl, were Renault engines.

“One of the pilots did not manage to start at all. However, this is a problem with Renault engines, not our flaw.

They are really trying very hard to increase the power of the engines throughout the season and we are happy about it. But putting a new motor, getting a fine for it and eventually getting off due to its breakdown is a shame. However, we have an open relationship and we can work together to find a reason, ”said the head of the McLaren team.

Seidl also recalled that Sainz had an updated engine, while Norris had an old one, but with a significant residual resource: “We don’t know what it is yet, but apparently the reason is not in the versions of the engines.”

If Renault want to improve their PU, then they obviously have to let McLaren see their design along with the changes in management that I mentioned. 2021 could look bright for McLaren and Renault if they work together closely. After digesting the problems in Spa, the options for Mercedes in 2021 or continued relations with Renault both seem plausible.