Catastrophic Global Cooling

[Dazed1]

The climate changes naturally due to variations in the orbit of the Earth around the Sun and due to a wobble in the angle of inclination. These serve to vary the amount if sunlight reaching the Earth and thus the global temperature.

In addition the Earth is slowly cooling. The paleo temperature over the last 65 million years has been in a general decline, with a fairly rapid cooling over the last 5 million years.

Is human activity warming the planet? Certainly. But is it likely that the planet will continue to cool generally on a geologic scale and that global temperatures will continue to go up and down? Definitely.

An asteroid impact, even a small one, or a major volcanic eruption could trigger a kind of nuclear winter. When the Yosemite caldera erupts, as it surely will in the not too distant future, all bets on the climate are off. There will be a major nuclear winter and major global cooling.

Whilst modern global warming is a fact, it's a mistake to assume the climate would be in a steady state were it not for humans. It wouldn't, the climate changes constantly on geological timescales.

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From the chart above it is clear the climate WAS in a stable state for hundreds of years. In fact, that is why the human infestation got so out of hand, and it is that infestation that is starting a temperature cycle that will very likely solve the infestation or at least bring it under control. The sad fact is this cycle possibility was predicted first in the late 1800's and 120 years on we have yet to address it in and intelligent way.

[Andres125sx]

I had always wondered about those catastrophic warnings from some scientists... Are they exaggerating? Scientists, traditionally, have never been alarmists, but when we hear/read some of their warnings predicting some serious weather changes if we don´t change our lifestyle, consciously or unconsciously we assume they´re being alarmist so we can keep on with our lifestyle. In other words, we humans are very prone to ignore any danger until it´s too late.

Not anymore in my case, what I wonder now is if maybe it´s just too late. Spain had always enjoied very stable weather, with some summer storms, but normal storms. When I was a kid (41 now) floodings have always been something we only see in the TV, from tropical countries, maybe some sporadic one each several years wich caused a shock to the whole country

Now in last years, what was extremelly rare is becoming normal. These pictures are all from past weeks, and as you can see, from different parts of the country. I read or hear some years ago Spain will be one of the countries where climate change will be more noticeable, but I´d have never expected I´d see it with my eyes...


Navarra, north of Spain




Valencia and Murcia, east of Spain



Madrid, center of Spain



What had always been extremelly rare, in past years is becoming normal, not just at some spot, all around the country

As I said, we humans are very prone to ignore alarmist warnings for our own peace of mind, but sincerely, they´re not alarmist, they´re real, worryingly real

[Greg Locock]

Oh good grief, here's a plot of deaths due to natural disasters over time

https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2018 ... ers-01.png

[TimW]

Oh good grief, here's a plot of deaths due to natural disasters over time

https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2018 ... ers-01.png

https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2018 ... ers-01.png

What's your point? That deaths from extreme temperatures reached an all time high?....

On topic: it amazes me that so many people are still in denial on our influence on climate change, while we all observe the changes that were predicted over 30 years ago. And yes, climate change is also a natural occuring phenomenon, but this one is on us and we'd be pretty stupid not to do anything about it.

[Zynerji]

I read that a single volcanic eruption emits more tons of CO2 than the entire human civilization from all times, combined.

Maybe work on preventing volcanoes should be focused on, as we have several out-gassing 24/7, and have had several during my lifetime.

The human contribution seems paltry.

[henry]

Oh good grief, here's a plot of deaths due to natural disasters over time

https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2018 ... ers-01.png

https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2018 ... ers-01.png

Congratulations to all the organisations and people who work so hard to minimise the impact of natural phenomena.

A simple example. In 2003 15000 people died in France during a heatwave. In 2019 they had a worse heatwave but this time it was 1500 people. Because they took steps to improve things. And that sort of preparedness has been going on around the world for decades.

[Big Tea]

Not distracting from the problem, because there is a problem if it's us or not, but so much of laterday catastrophes are caused by too many people in the wrong place. Throughout history people have gone to the lowlands and throughout history it has flooded. They are called flood plains for a reason. The Nile valley was flooded with rich silt each year and was extremely fertile because of it.

These days the houses are made of stone and the ground is covered with tarmac and paved so what was a blessing is now a disaster. Where I live you can tell at a glance which houses are built since WW2, because they do not have a step and are often at the bottom of a concrete drive (yip, like a funnel to the front door.)

Older houses have been there a few hundred years and have a step before the door and the 'floor level' is about a foot above the outside level so water runs past.

However, some of the houses that have not flooded since they were built 300 yeas ago are now getting floods because a mile 'upstream' where the floodplane was is now a housing estate and a bend in the river was 'straightened' and the sides built up.

Surprise surprise, the water level downstream is now higher.

As I said, not distracting from the problem, but we are making things much worse by putting so many people in places that have flooded for a few thousand years.

[Sputnick]

I read that a single volcanic eruption emits more tons of CO2 than the entire human civilization from all times, combined.

Maybe work on preventing volcanoes should be focused on, as we have several out-gassing 24/7, and have had several during my lifetime.

The human contribution seems paltry.

A volcanic eruption does emit a lot of CO2, however counting all the volcanic eruptions is any given year and the total CO2 released is measured in tens of or hundreds of million kg while our civilization emits billions of kg of CO2 per year.

Volcanic eruptions also release a large amount of sulfur based aerosols, which act as a cooling agent in the atmosphere as they reflect solar radiation away from the surface. Volcanoes also encourage plant and vegetation growth through all the nutrients they deposit into the ground through ash and lava.

[DChemTech]

Sorry, double post.

[DChemTech]

I read that a single volcanic eruption emits more tons of CO2 than the entire human civilization from all times, combined.

Maybe work on preventing volcanoes should be focused on, as we have several out-gassing 24/7, and have had several during my lifetime.

The human contribution seems paltry.

I'm sure you can read that at plenty of places. It's also wrong. The graphs at the page below are a nice illustration of the contribution of volcanos compared to human emissions.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015 ... the-world/

Ironically, a supermassive vulcano eruption would probably actually lead to catastrophic global cooling due to the albedo effect. The graph above shows dips in temperature following significant eruptions too. But yeah, supermassive volcanos are not really predictable or preventable, and they are extremely, extremely rare. The human-induced warming in contrast...

@andres, was it really necessary to wake up this topic? It was nicely dead and buried. Much like the hypothesis of global cooling.

[hollus]

I read that a single volcanic eruption emits more tons of CO2 than the entire human civilization from all times, combined.

Maybe work on preventing volcanoes should be focused on, as we have several out-gassing 24/7, and have had several during my lifetime.

The human contribution seems paltry.

The data say otherwise:

The biggest volcanic boom there would be Pinatubo in 1991. Maybe one kind of can see it if one squints.

[Andres125sx]

Oh good grief, here's a plot of deaths due to natural disasters over time

https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2018 ... ers-01.png

https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2018 ... ers-01.png

And the point is...

In Spain with all these massive floodings, there have been only one death, in Madrid when he went with his car into a flooded tunnel and for whatever reason he couldn´t get out of it in time

Does that mean in your opinion all these floodings all around Spain means nothing because only one person died and that´s not representative?

It´s amazing how people keep looking for data wich contradict reality...

[Andres125sx]

I read that a single volcanic eruption emits more tons of CO2 than the entire human civilization from all times, combined.

Maybe work on preventing volcanoes should be focused on, as we have several out-gassing 24/7, and have had several during my lifetime.

The human contribution seems paltry.

Where did you read that?

When you read something that contradict scientific comunity you think that source is reliable and they know better than scientists?

Or maybe you think volcanoes only erupt since industrial revolution?

[Andres125sx]

@andres, was it really necessary to wake up this topic? It was nicely dead and buried. Much like the hypothesis of global cooling.

Yes it was. You´re free to ignore if you will, but I can´t ignore weather is becoming more extreme year by year at a worrying rate

[DChemTech]

@andres, was it really necessary to wake up this topic? It was nicely dead and buried. Much like the hypothesis of global cooling.

Yes it was. You´re free to ignore if you will, but I can´t ignore weather is becoming more extreme year by year at a worrying rate

I understand the urgency of the situation, but this topic is on catastrophic global cooling - a minor scientific discussion settled in the '70ies/'80ies. So I just don't think this topic is the right place to discuss the very real effects of global warming.