Silly Season 2020/2021 (starting with silliness in 2019)

[marvin78]

The point would not be to take on Max. The only one that can fight with Max under equal conditions is Hamilton. The two of them are well clear of the rest. The point would be to have a solid number 2 because now Max is fighting the Mercedes juggernaut alone leaving Mercedes too many strategic options during races as seen (and that is a problem against a team that is already in possession of the fastest car).

You clearly are forgetting Daniel Ricciardo.

And the many other possible drivers that could not compete with him in the same car.

[Big Tea]

I like Vettel, but also tend to think he was a 'man of the times' and has not been the same since the change of driving style needed for blown defuser. He has not suddenly become a bad driver, but fallen back into the pack somewhat and left his mind set on pole. He seems to have some sort of right to be in a place because he is a champion, but he no longer does so has accidents.
He has difficulty adjusting to not being a champion. I hope he stays in F1 as he is a nice guy and a good driver

[alexx_88]

Having seen both Seb and Max throw their toys out of the pram a few times, I think Max + Vettel would be a nuclear partnership. Would make Lewis + Alonso seem like a church gathering. There are other equally fast drivers on the grid who could maybe do better. But I think their best chance is to give Alex a bit more time to find his feet.

[alexx_88]

I like Vettel, but also tend to think he was a 'man of the times' and has not been the same since the change of driving style needed for blown defuser. He has not suddenly become a bad driver, but fallen back into the pack somewhat and left his mind set on pole. He seems to have some sort of right to be in a place because he is a champion, but he no longer does so has accidents.
He has difficulty adjusting to not being a champion. I hope he stays in F1 as he is a nice guy and a good driver

That's a perfect way of putting it in my opinion.

[Pyrone89]

The point would not be to take on Max. The only one that can fight with Max under equal conditions is Hamilton. The two of them are well clear of the rest. The point would be to have a solid number 2 because now Max is fighting the Mercedes juggernaut alone leaving Mercedes too many strategic options during races as seen (and that is a problem against a team that is already in possession of the fastest car).

You clearly are forgetting Daniel Ricciardo.

Is not on their level since these 2 guys took it to another level, but just like Leclerc (and possibly Russell who is a big unknown) comes close and would be perfect for RB. However he decided to bail.

[Pyrone89]

Having seen both Seb and Max throw their toys out of the pram a few times, I think Max + Vettel would be a nuclear partnership. Would make Lewis + Alonso seem like a church gathering. There are other equally fast drivers on the grid who could maybe do better. But I think their best chance is to give Alex a bit more time to find his feet.

When did Max throw his toys out of the pram? He had 2 run ins with RIC on track, but so did ROS and HAM. And Alonso/Hamilton was so bad the FIA had to police it from Brazil onwards if you remember.

[Manoah2u]

Having seen both Seb and Max throw their toys out of the pram a few times, I think Max + Vettel would be a nuclear partnership. Would make Lewis + Alonso seem like a church gathering. There are other equally fast drivers on the grid who could maybe do better. But I think their best chance is to give Alex a bit more time to find his feet.

I think people are missing the bigger picture here to be honest.

Concider the fact that Max is not happy with RedBull's performance, and that despite now having a Honda engine to his disposal, the car is still 'miles' behind Mercedes. There WAS a moment of hope about two seasons ago, when RB crawled up to Mercedes, and wins were possible. That goes for last season too, but it slowly started to get away again and now they're off again, and Mercedes' pace of Styria showed that they're just too far behind, despite arguably RB having thrown a lot into this season's car.

Max will not become the youngest driver champion, and whether he cares about it or not, it does influence him.
The biggest issue here is that they're simply once again not able to hand Max a WDC capable car, and it's gonna get old at some point, and he's gonna look elsewhere. Ferrari at the moment is closed, and if we look at their current shape, it's good he didn't sign with them even if he could.

These elements together mean that if RedBull is not going to be able to hand Max a WDC car, well, he's gonna go. And he will have his sights on Mercedes. It very much also remains to be seen whether 2022 will grant him a WDC car with RedBull. Max is not a patient driver so he's gonna be impatient soon and as said, undoubtedly, it's in his mind to leave.

And this is where it becomes tricky for Redbull. If they want to achieve success, whether that even is a win for that matter, they're gonna need a 'star' driver. Kvyat isn't. Gasly isn't. Hartley wasn't. No driver in their driver programme is. And let's face it. Alexander Albon isn't either..

Which means that if Max would be gone, they're out of talent, and then no matter what they achieve with the car, it goes to waste in subpar drivers.

They already lost Daniel, which was a 'star' driver. but he isn't coming back. Especially if they can't get Max a WDC car, why would Daniel concider it? So they're running out of options.

And here now, we have an option with Vettel. because no matter how you put it, HE IS a 'star driver'.
At the very best Albon MIGHT be able to perform close to Vettel on the 'best of days'. NO driver in RedBull's portfolio is even remotely close after Albon. Albon won't be able to 'lead' the team either.

And this is why Vettel would be very much worth concidering. He has history with them. He is capable. And if ultimately they won't manage a WDC car (but still a winning car), then i really don't think Vettel will be very 'dissapointed', where Max definately will be.

A short recap thus:

The way it is now, RB is not able to improve enough. Verstappen is and will not be satisfied with that, so sooner or later he is going to leave. Redbull needs a 'top/star' driver as they have none of their drivers that can do what they require except for Max. Vettel is available. Vettel will stay. Vettel will keep RedBull where they are now.

I think the only thing that we're waiting on right now is what Mercedes is going to do: keep Bottas, or replace him?
And if they will replace him, will they replace him with Verstappen, or will they replace him with Vettel?
Bottas stays : Seb to RedBull.
Bottas out : Max to Mercedes, then Seb to RedBull.
Bottas out : Seb to Mercedes, then Max can only stay, and will, ironically, never become WDC.

I'm pretty sure Max is slamming his head against the wall repetively that he didn't sign with Mercedes and stay out of F1 a year longer but opted for a ToroRosso race seat instead. It was good for the short term, but it's starting to look destructive for the long term.

The biggest question thus remains: IF they (want to) replace Bottas, which would be best? 4 time GERMAN WDC Vettel aboard alongside 6 or perhaps 7-time WDC Hamilton, carrying 13 titles together and would definately be the strongest team out there. Is Verstappen faster than Vettel? I'm inclined to think so, and i'm inclined to think he could give Lewis a bigger run for his money than Seb would, BUT would Mercedes actually want that?

end conclusion:

Vettel will be confirmed before the season is over at either Mercedes, or RedBull.

[NathanOlder]

Quick question: what makes everyone think that Vettel will perform much better than albon?

After all, he was beaten by Ricciardo, who was made to look very ordinary by Max towards the end of them racing together.

He just came out of a dominant streak, and the new 'formula' did not fit his liking very much. There has also been the question mark on exactly when he made a deal with Ferrari, official or unofficial. He might actually already made a deal with Ferrari before the change in the 'formula', and quite frankly, motivation then plays a big part too.
Yeah, Daniel 'beat' him in certain areas, but it's not like Daniel is pretty dominant against Ocon or was against his other Renault teammate.

If we look at how he performed at Ferrari, despite a bunch of clumsy moves, honestly, i ain't seeing Albon do that.
Furthermore, Vettel is a 4-time WDC and multiple GP winner. He showed that potential already at Toro Rosso, and quite frankly, I don't see a WDC in Albon, and it's really questionable whether he actually is winning material. It's pretty obvious how Vettel would perform better than albon, and don't forget his experience.

Yeah I agree, Albon isn't anywhere near good enough for a RedBull seat. Ive said it for over a year. He's not good enough for F1. 2018 F2 proves that. He's a good F2 driver, like Latifi and DeVries. Lando and George with 0 F2 experience cruised through F2 against these guys with plenty of F2 experience. RedBull have no decent young drivers ready for F1. They should be far more careful with the drivers they had (Sainz, Ricciardo, Buemi)

[nzjrs]

Agree with most of that Manoah2u, but unless Lewis retires I don't see anything changing. They would be silly to drop Bottas as long as Lewis is there. I think Verstappen is Hamilton-tier, and that's a compliment to how good Bottas is and Rosberg was.

I think we are in a holding pattern for a couple of years until Lewis retires or the regulations change (or RB gets a championship winning car)

[Just_a_fan]

Max isn't going anywhere. RedBull will have him in a contract that's so tight not even hydrogen could leak through it. There may be performance clauses but I bet he'll get enough results for those not to kick in on his behalf.

Why would Mercedes throw out Bottas if Hamilton is still there? Mercedes don't need Seb or Max coming in to the team and causing problems. They just need two drivers that can get maximum points where possible. Bottas does that well enough for Mercedes's needs - see the first race, for example. The only reason Mercedes would bring in Seb (or Max, if he were available) is if Hamilton decides not to sign a new contract with them. The only reason to drop Bottas is to bring in a young driver to prepare for the time when Hamilton is no longer with them. I could see Bottas being dropped for a Russell or a Norris, but not for a Seb or a Max.

Mercedes currently have the perfect driver line up. They won't change it unless forced to (or they want to bring on a young driver).

[NathanOlder]

The only thing Mercedes need to think about is life after Lewis. If Russell is their man to take over as top driver , then surely George needs a transitional period next to Lewis to pick up all the best parts he can. George will be told he is number 2, learn all you can and help Lewis in his last year or 2. The payback is being number 1 and a new team mate to help him win Championships for himself.

[Jolle]

The only thing Mercedes need to think about is life after Lewis. If Russell is their man to take over as top driver , then surely George needs a transitional period next to Lewis to pick up all the best parts he can. George will be told he is number 2, learn all you can and help Lewis in his last year or 2. The payback is being number 1 and a new team mate to help him win Championships for himself.

naah... looking at history, bringing in a new dominant star driver never goes like "lets bring him in slowly", apart from Lauda-Prost maybe. These guys don't take second or time to settle in. They will be on the radio in their second GP together "I am faster", and wrecking the sitting champion in the proces.

You either do it with both in the team, like Senna-Prost, or swap them like Hakkinen-Raikkonen, or Schumacher-Raikkonen.

If they put someone next to Hamilton and he follows like Massa, it doesn't work... you need someone with fire, confidence and a bit of an attitude. Basically how Leclerc handled Vettel (and the team) last year.

[alexx_88]

When did Max throw his toys out of the pram? He had 2 run ins with RIC on track, but so did ROS and HAM. And Alonso/Hamilton was so bad the FIA had to police it from Brazil onwards if you remember.

I distinctly remember quite a few times when he was really harsh about the PU on radio. Might've been in their final year with Renault, but the actual question is, do you think he'd take it lightly if one of Vettel's moves ends up with him out of the race? He's definitely a fiery individual, just have a look at what happened with Ocon.

[alexx_88]

end conclusion:

Vettel will be confirmed before the season is over at either Mercedes, or RedBull.

I'm willing to do a friendly bet that he'll end up staying out for 2021 or retire. A seat with Racing Point is the best he can hope for.

It's really complicated for a driver to position himself to be in a winning team just before a big rule change. I'd venture and say that the aim of the FIA with the cost cap is also to make it easier for a top driver to win from a team that's not outright the fastest.

Mercedes is at this point in time, still the safest best for 2022 and beyond. I'd venture a guess and say that Max knows this and will try and move, but Mercedes has no reason to commit to anything. They know that "build it and they will come" applies really well to fast F1 cars. They can afford to wait and see what Hamilton does and go from there. If they have a fast car all the top drivers will do their best to get their seat. I suspect their plan is to put Russell in starting next year and see how he fares compared to Hamilton. I agree with what Jolle is saying, that a future WDC young driver won't be bothered by how many years of experience sit in the other car. If he's faster, he'll demand to be given the same chances. Leclerc is an excellent example of that and I think he's one of the more diplomatic young drivers out there. If I were Mercedes, I'd put Russel in next year and see how he fares. They already have a ton of data on him, so if they do that, you can pretty much tell that they've chosen their lead driver for the future.

However, as we've seen last year, pecking orders can change massively. In just under two years, Danny Ric has gone from saying "No, thank you" to Mclaren, to seeing them as a great step up from Renault. The worst thing a top driver (like Max) can do is tie his future in with a team with no way of breaking contract. I don't know the specifics of his contract with RB, but given how savvy him and Jos were when he got into F1, I'd guess they know this and have taken the necessary actions. It's really easy for the top talent that everyone is talking about to become "yesterday's news" simply by having a bad car one year. Same thing happened to Ricciardo, Hulkenberg and Perez.

[alexx_88]

George will be told he is number 2, learn all you can and help Lewis in his last year or 2. The payback is being number 1 and a new team mate to help him win Championships for himself.

He'd show great maturity if he'd be able to reign it in like that, but I've yet to see a future top driver behave like this. If he smells that he can take Lewis on, he'll absolutely do it. The chance of becoming an all-time great by taking down the "old king" is too great to pass up.