[ 2020 ] Scuderia Ferrari - Ferrari

[elf341]

Is it possible, do you think, that the secret FIA-Ferrari-Deal includes some agreement that all Ferrari PUs have to use ~50hp less for a couple of races as a punishment for sneakily cheating last year? Because the Ferrari PU is so slow (all teams) that it is almost comical.

I think you're right that what we're seeing is from the settlement, but not as a punishment.

Rather, I believe the development path Ferrari went on the last 2-3 seasons was ultimately in violation of the rules, and that they continued to iterate on the non-legal innovation, centering the research and development around the idea, including aero (pile on dirty downforce, etc..), culminating in the supreme performance we saw in Spa/Monza.

When FIA determined that they had be contravening the rules for possibly 1-2+ years, they immediately mandated a partial ceasing of offending behaviour, possibly a straightforward software change (resulting in the sudden loss of pace at end of 2019), and then mandated a total removal of any offending parts/structure/operation for following season - this basically removed 2 years of development. So they are quite literally 2 years behind on engine since they had all their development thrown out.

This would explain what we have seen.

[outsid3r]

Is it possible, do you think, that the secret FIA-Ferrari-Deal includes some agreement that all Ferrari PUs have to use ~50hp less for a couple of races as a punishment for sneakily cheating last year? Because the Ferrari PU is so slow (all teams) that it is almost comical.

I think you're right that what we're seeing is from the settlement, but not as a punishment.

Rather, I believe the development path Ferrari went on the last 2-3 seasons was ultimately in violation of the rules, and that they continued to iterate on the non-legal innovation, centering the research and development around the idea, including aero (pile on dirty downforce, etc..), culminating in the supreme performance we saw in Spa/Monza.

When FIA determined that they had be contravening the rules for possibly 1-2+ years, they immediately mandated a partial ceasing of offending behaviour, possibly a straightforward software change (resulting in the sudden loss of pace at end of 2019), and then mandated a total removal of any offending parts/structure/operation for following season - this basically removed 2 years of development. So they are quite literally 2 years behind on engine since they had all their development thrown out.

This would explain what we have seen.

This would make much more sense. There was a slight loss in power last year after the FIA intervened, but it was nowhere near the loss we are seeing from this year's car. Its like something major happened in between seasons...

It could also be down to Ferrari developing a draggier, higher-downforce car thinking that they would race this year with the same power levels of last year

[Manoah2u]

new Ferrari team boss sighted.

[SiLo]

If it's the case that the engine is down on power, but they have ok downforce we should see them a bit further up in Hungary. I would expect to see them slow in S1 but nowhere else.

[El Scorchio]

Can't help but feel that Leclerc basically repeating what Vettel did the week before has hurt the team more than just the imediate on track result. The team gets dragged through the mud by the media, rival teams' fans and their own fans.

Had the drivers behaved they would've likely finished 7/8th or thereabouts. Maybe worse, but they'd atleast been in the top ten, participated in the race, done some overtaking and could've argued to need time to understand their new aero package. All panic wouldn't have broken lose. Now instead Binotto faces the ax.

Also as was proven in the first race, just keep the car going round on track and form where they start, only good things can happen. Take advantage of a safety car, run alternate strategies, gather data and see where it gets you. They could pick up some more podiums. Whatever you do, just don't take yourself out of the running with impatient moves early in the race!

[TechAddict]

It could also be down to Ferrari developing a draggier, higher-downforce car thinking that they would race this year with the same power levels of last year

Exactly, I'm convinced that what happened. Their aero is completely out of whack with their power curve. As we know, development at top teams begins at least a year before, not least that new designs are invariably based on the old ones.

Note that this affects everything! You need the high downforce for tyre management, so even though they could pare back dirty downforce and improve their aero efficiency they probably hurt their long-term pace as now they are not managing tyres in the way they simulated.

(as an aside, the potential multi-year non-compliance of Ferrari engine is probably the reason for FIA to not discuss the matter. They do not want to open the can of worms of rewriting 2018 and 2019 championships along with monies distributed. So it is actually in FIA's interest to keep quiet, not Ferraris.)

But if this is the case I do not see Ferrari agree to the long freeze. They would be sitting ducks for 4 years.
Even if FIA want to make them suffer, It is in no ones interest that Ferrari and the teams using their engines are incompetitive for many years.

[nemanja]

It could also be down to Ferrari developing a draggier, higher-downforce car thinking that they would race this year with the same power levels of last year

Exactly, I'm convinced that what happened. Their aero is completely out of whack with their power curve. As we know, development at top teams begins at least a year before, not least that new designs are invariably based on the old ones.

Note that this affects everything! You need the high downforce for tyre management, so even though they could pare back dirty downforce and improve their aero efficiency they probably hurt their long-term pace as now they are not managing tyres in the way they simulated.

(as an aside, the potential multi-year non-compliance of Ferrari engine is probably the reason for FIA to not discuss the matter. They do not want to open the can of worms of rewriting 2018 and 2019 championships along with monies distributed. So it is actually in FIA's interest to keep quiet, not Ferraris.)

But if this is the case I do not see Ferrari agree to the long freeze. They would be sitting ducks for 4 years.
Even if FIA want to make them suffer, It is in no ones interest that Ferrari and the teams using their engines are incompetitive for many years.

You are right. There is definitely something going on in the background. There is no way in hell Ferrari left themselves in that position.

[santos]

It could also be down to Ferrari developing a draggier, higher-downforce car thinking that they would race this year with the same power levels of last year

Exactly, I'm convinced that what happened. Their aero is completely out of whack with their power curve. As we know, development at top teams begins at least a year before, not least that new designs are invariably based on the old ones.

Note that this affects everything! You need the high downforce for tyre management, so even though they could pare back dirty downforce and improve their aero efficiency they probably hurt their long-term pace as now they are not managing tyres in the way they simulated.

(as an aside, the potential multi-year non-compliance of Ferrari engine is probably the reason for FIA to not discuss the matter. They do not want to open the can of worms of rewriting 2018 and 2019 championships along with monies distributed. So it is actually in FIA's interest to keep quiet, not Ferraris.)

But if this is the case I do not see Ferrari agree to the long freeze. They would be sitting ducks for 4 years.
Even if FIA want to make them suffer, It is in no ones interest that Ferrari and the teams using their engines are incompetitive for many years.

Maybe the 4 years are the price they will pay for something that they did, that wasn't totally legal. Also finnishing on a midfield position this year, will also give them more time on the wind tunel.

[holeindalip]

Well I think Mercedes had cooling issues all year last year, then they solved those over the winter to unlock all the potential, then you have the updated engines for 2020 making even more power is like a double whammy.Just read an article and Horner and Max are very surprised on the gains made by Mercedes on the power unit front.

It’s just a combo of being draggy, aero correlation problems and even if they are back to late 2018 performance on the pu front that’s going to put them mid field exactly where they are at....

[Ringleheim]

Well I think Mercedes had cooling issues all year last year, then they solved those over the winter to unlock all the potential, then you have the updated engines for 2020 making even more power is like a double whammy.Just read an article and Horner and Max are very surprised on the gains made by Mercedes on the power unit front.

It’s just a combo of being draggy, aero correlation problems and even if they are back to late 2018 performance on the pu front that’s going to put them mid field exactly where they are at....

The Ferrari isn't slow because the Mercedes got faster. Well, not entirely.

Ferrari was a full second off their own pace last year at the same track (Austria).

They are hurting BADLY from the secret FIA deal which has obviously robbed them of a huge amount of power. I don't think 100 bhp is out of the question.

The tricks Ferrari had developed for getting oxygen-enriched oil into the combustion chamber were quite clever. Once you are pumping that sort of thing into the motor, it's like going back to the good old days of using, more or less, rocket fuel.

Remember that? When the drivers complained of getting whoozie while driving behind other cars? They claimed the toxic rocket fuel brews were good for maybe as much as 150, or 160-175 bhp.

Who knows how much of a bhp bump Ferrari got from the "leaking oil cooler" etc., or how much they are DOWN now that the system is ruled illegal.

On top of that, Ferrari continues to struggle with simple correlation problems and they have built a pig of a chassis that doesn't work on a fundamental aero level.

It's a double whammy and why Ferrari can't get both cars out of Q2.

It's a total disaster. Will be interesting to see if Binotto can survive this season.

[C Plinius Secundus]

Last year's engine with additional fuel sensor would still be better than this one, if Ferrari's trick was (only) burning more fuel. Also it wouldn't require building entirely new PU. This year's engine looks like on 2016. levels. It's like FIA deleted 3 years of development for Ferrari. If Ferrari could build decent aero and play their politics right Mercedes/Honda engine would be under heavy scrutinizing as well. They seem completely lost and Binnoto seems overwhelmed.

Binotto seems completely overwhelmed and probably is, but not because of lack of talent, he is an excellent engineer, but maybe the team principal position is just not the right place for him. If things don't improve, and fast, we're going to see the old Ferrari tradition of 'licenziamenti' (firing people left, right and center) again very soon, and then wait for another couple of years, and so on...

I think this assumption is wrong.
As CTO Binotto made the car a multi race winner. Now he is CEO for ~2 years, which is too short to really have that sort of impact.
They had a low drag concept which did not work out in the end. I still think that part of the engine cheat is over exaggerated, one could visibly see them putting downforce and drag on the car end of last season, which led to the decline of top speed. But they could not get this downforce into tire life, it surprisingly killed the tires.
Now whith the cheats over they have less power and less tire life. The only thing that helped were many safety cars...
This also fits the poor performance in the wet, as the car is set up to be as gentle to the tires as possible. In Q3 they did not even put the car at the lights like everyone else to not loose tire temperature...
In sum it is the same thing as the last 6 years: Merc did evolve a perfect knowledge of the tires as they had Schumacher driving races just for tire testing. Then Ham and Ros for one season eating tires. Plus a more powerful engine as they started more than one year earlier.
For me it is clear that Ferrari can do what they want...without magic or a rule and tire change they will not be on par again.

Your analysis is very good and most likely right, yet the Scuderia has its own internal politics, and its gears are already turning, apparently Binotto may have his successor already appointed: Antonello Colleta.

https://www.corriere.it/sport/formula-1 ... 6362.shtml

I don't know whether it's good or not, but that's the Ferrari way...

[the EDGE]

The biggest reason for Ferrari’s failure this season is they got caught out with the chosen engine development direction and now it’s probably too late to do anything about

There may well be chassis problems that are the fault of someone else but Binotto headed up the engine department before becoming team principle so in reality the buck really does sit with him, as he would have approved their failed route of development if not have been responsible for it. I’m surprised he’s not been sacked already TBH

[Vasconia]

If it's the case that the engine is down on power, but they have ok downforce we should see them a bit further up in Hungary. I would expect to see them slow in S1 but nowhere else.

Theoretically they are better on slow corners so if they are not more competitive here, I don´t know where they can be.

[Moore77]

If it's the case that the engine is down on power, but they have ok downforce we should see them a bit further up in Hungary. I would expect to see them slow in S1 but nowhere else.

Theoretically they are better on slow corners so if they are not more competitive here, I don´t know where they can be.

But they were nowhere here last year! From that perspective, any progress is a good progress. They were anyway not the best for the slower speed sections either. Really hope to see them gain good ground with these unseen upgrades. Hope to see them being atleast 3rd best, especially with Racing Point being that strong.

[Vasconia]

If it's the case that the engine is down on power, but they have ok downforce we should see them a bit further up in Hungary. I would expect to see them slow in S1 but nowhere else.

Theoretically they are better on slow corners so if they are not more competitive here, I don´t know where they can be.

But they were nowhere here last year! From that perspective, any progress is a good progress. They were anyway not the best for the slower speed sections either. Really hope to see them gain good ground with these unseen upgrades. Hope to see them being atleast 3rd best, especially with Racing Point being that strong.

Last years car had a totally different car, they were strong on straights and weaker on corners, this year they are weak in many places but slighlty better on slow corners, so hopefully they should be stronger here, maybe...