I think it unlikely that a team could pluck a rookie, drop them into the Mercedes next to Hamilton and that they would beat Hamilton in their opening season (as Hamilton did to Alonso).Schuttelberg wrote: ↑30 Jul 2020, 03:38Hamilton joined a championship winning team on debut and drove a car capable of winning it. Why should Russell have to spend more years floundering around for podiums and wins if he can entice a team like RBR? This logic of bedding them in or warming them up is really over rated and devoid of facts.
I suspect I wasn't clear, which is my fault. I'm suggesting that there's more chance of Mercedes producing a winning car than any other manufacturer, not that they definitely will. Russell could follow Ricciardo's/Alonso's/Vettel's/etc route of bouncing around trying to get a drive with a team that might produce a championship winning car, but whilst Mercedes are by no means guaranteed to dominate, they seem the safest bet, no?Schuttelberg wrote: ↑30 Jul 2020, 03:38You are also basing everything on the assumption that Mercedes will dominate the sport for another 10 years.
I agree it's not what it's advertised to be. They didn't even promote Hamilton.Schuttelberg wrote: ↑30 Jul 2020, 03:38their YDP has been a big waste/sham. After Hamilton, they've promoted exactly nobody and Wehrlein and Ocon both were ready for the step up but Bottas continues.
Verstappen had over a year with Torro Rosso and I suspect 2020 Verstappen dunks 2015 Verstappen. Much as I don't think 2007 Hamilton would take a single race from 2020 Hamilton (excluding reliability over the season).El Scorchio wrote: ↑30 Jul 2020, 12:47Agree with the first part. If Russell is up to it (like Hamilton was) then he'll just flourish straight away. The best drivers are the ones who can be put in any car and almost immediately understand it and get the maximum possible performance from it. My feeling is we've seen that from Russell over his career so far. I don't think he needs to spend time in a midfield team. It certainly did LeClerc and Verstappen no harm to be fast tracked into high performing equipment and they'v largely handled it very well. Some drivers may crack under pressure but I don't see Russell as one of those.
I always like to quote football when referring to examples like this. When Ronaldo played for United, he was under 20, same for Messi. If the quality is there, experience is then added on to create a true great. For that to happen you need stability, financial incentive and a thriving environment. The tools are there, the money is there, the environmental factor is there. Russel in that car would smash the field within a couple of GP’s. Would he beat Hamilton in the same machinery? Mhm. Not straight away. The only three drivers which can Are Vettel, Ricciardo and Max ( i am referring to consistency). But he would be better than Bottas. That’s my gut feeling here.Wynters wrote: ↑30 Jul 2020, 16:01Verstappen had over a year with Torro Rosso and I suspect 2020 Verstappen dunks 2015 Verstappen. Much as I don't think 2007 Hamilton would take a single race from 2020 Hamilton (excluding reliability over the season).El Scorchio wrote: ↑30 Jul 2020, 12:47Agree with the first part. If Russell is up to it (like Hamilton was) then he'll just flourish straight away. The best drivers are the ones who can be put in any car and almost immediately understand it and get the maximum possible performance from it. My feeling is we've seen that from Russell over his career so far. I don't think he needs to spend time in a midfield team. It certainly did LeClerc and Verstappen no harm to be fast tracked into high performing equipment and they'v largely handled it very well. Some drivers may crack under pressure but I don't see Russell as one of those.
Naturally talented drivers will do well in a car. Naturally talented drivers who have experience under their belt will do better and have a lower chance of struggling under the pressure. Why not give a driver some of that experience? Why do they need to be promoted immediately? Does that work better for them? For the team?
A different question would be: How much experience do they need to reach touching distance of their full potential?
Another one would be: How long are they willing to wait before the ultimate gamble of 'promote me or I leave'?
If Mercedes are locked in as 'the best car' next year, do they need Bottas in 2021?
I see what you're saying, but I guess the point I was attempting to make is that did they look out of place or struggle? Has it harmed any of the drivers I named or prevented them developing, or the teams they went to? Absolutely not. If anything it probably helps them progress faster. Particularly Hamilton going up against Alonso. I'm not sure they need to be the complete finished article to get that seat. 'All' Russell would need to be is as good as Bottas while Hamilton is still at the team so there's no WCC drop off. Then he also gets his experience in a relatively low pressure atmosphere (i.e. no expectation to beat Hamilton) so when Hamilton retires and Russell is then really well placed within the Merc setup to succeed.Wynters wrote: ↑30 Jul 2020, 16:01Verstappen had over a year with Torro Rosso and I suspect 2020 Verstappen dunks 2015 Verstappen. Much as I don't think 2007 Hamilton would take a single race from 2020 Hamilton (excluding reliability over the season).El Scorchio wrote: ↑30 Jul 2020, 12:47Agree with the first part. If Russell is up to it (like Hamilton was) then he'll just flourish straight away. The best drivers are the ones who can be put in any car and almost immediately understand it and get the maximum possible performance from it. My feeling is we've seen that from Russell over his career so far. I don't think he needs to spend time in a midfield team. It certainly did LeClerc and Verstappen no harm to be fast tracked into high performing equipment and they'v largely handled it very well. Some drivers may crack under pressure but I don't see Russell as one of those.
Naturally talented drivers will do well in a car. Naturally talented drivers who have experience under their belt will do better and have a lower chance of struggling under the pressure. Why not give a driver some of that experience? Why do they need to be promoted immediately? Does that work better for them? For the team?
A different question would be: How much experience do they need to reach touching distance of their full potential?
Another one would be: How long are they willing to wait before the ultimate gamble of 'promote me or I leave'?
If Mercedes are locked in as 'the best car' next year, do they need Bottas in 2021?
I agree. I think they are unlikely to get a better opportunity than next year.El Scorchio wrote: ↑30 Jul 2020, 16:28To me the logical route seems to be Mercedes in 2021 or 2022. His availability might force their hand with what to do with Bottas.
I think questions could be asked of Bottas based on his 2017 (3rd) and 2018 (5th) performances. Although, to be fair, 2017 was pretty tight. Personally, I think he's a 'top-of-the-midfield' driver who comes with character advantages for a top team.
Absolutely agree on that battle. It's a shame that the start is tipped in Ricciardo's favour due to the year off and the end will be tipped in Ocon's favour as everyone prepares for Ricciardo moving to a rival.
Definitely! If they think Russell is that 'can't miss' prospect. My feeling is they can't have been 100% convinced with Ocon or Wehrlein. To revisit and give proper kudos to the point you made though, you are right. Russell's couple of years at Williams will have undoubtedly been of fantastic use for him to get used to everything and for the works team to see 'what he's made of' in F1. I think from the basis of they can definitely elevate him no problem, but coming straight into the sport in the works Mercedes would have been a big ask.Wynters wrote: ↑30 Jul 2020, 18:15I agree. I think they are unlikely to get a better opportunity than next year.El Scorchio wrote: ↑30 Jul 2020, 16:28To me the logical route seems to be Mercedes in 2021 or 2022. His availability might force their hand with what to do with Bottas.
A year of dominance looks already locked in. If the worst a driver will finish is 3rd, I can't think of a better situation to introduce a driver.
On Max and Daniel part, when Max joined Red Bull in 2016, the first time Max outqualified Ric was in 5th qualifying together. Over the 17 qualifying in 2016, Max only outqualified Ric 6 times. You can easily term that as poor record. So Ocon has already outqualified Ric in his second qualifying, under wet conditions. Ocon has already beaten Perez in qualifying battle in 2018. Too early to judge him against Ric.Phil wrote: ↑30 Jul 2020, 18:31The thing is though... is Bottas really THAT bad? He certainly seems to be a quick qualifier. So was Nico. Sure, maybe across the season not as exceptional as Hamilton, but who is? RedBull is probably in a similar dilemma. Max is good. Very good. Riccardo, at least over a lap, just shy as being as good. They've lost him, only to be replaced by 2 drivers that have already tried and proven nothing but that they are even farther away from Max's performance.
I'm sure Mercedes has great data to evaluate Russel, certainly more than what we have. Is he really that good or would he perform no better than Bottas is? A similar case can be made towards Alonso (exceptional driver) who shamed Stoffel, a driver thought to be also exceptional until he was put in the same car? What about Ocon? Supposedly very good too, we'd assume maybe better than Bottas (according to the posts above), but is he really? So far, he doesn't seem to be putting up a big fight vs Daniel Riccardo at the same car. Sure, he's been away from F1 for a year, but it's one of the driver battles I'm very interested to see unfold.
From Ferrari Driver Academy there are 5 drivers contesting this year's F2. 3/4 of them seem to be capable/ near capable. If they all perform well, Ferrari will have trouble finding them space in F1. Of them, Robert Shwartzmann has a great prospect of going the Leclerc/Russell route by winning GP3/F3-F2 back to back. He has speed along with calmness to see the bigger picture.Phil wrote: ↑30 Jul 2020, 14:15I'm not sure the "competition" is much better in what their YDP achieves. RedBull has effectively put all their eggs in Max's basket - the result being that they lost Daniel Riccardo. Along the way, they have alienated drivers with huge prospects (-> Buemi, Alguarsuari), one of which has continued to be very successful.Schuttelberg wrote: ↑30 Jul 2020, 03:38History doesn't always mean it tells the future but it does suggest that while Mercedes has been making beasts on the track, their YDP has been a big waste/sham. After Hamilton, they've promoted exactly nobody and Wehrlein and Ocon both were ready for the step up but Bottas continues.
If they lose Max, good luck with their remaining drivers, as none of them seem up to the job of stepping up. There's also the fact that every year, F2 produces a new champion and new talent, but F1 drivers generally tend to stay a couple of years and have long careers (10+ years). With limited seats and drives, it can't add up.
Mercedes also doesn't have a second team (like RedBull has). All they can do is make it more lucrative for their customer teams to take their junior drivers. Some might be willing to, not all might want to. Torro-Rosso, I mean Alpha Tauri doesn't have a choice.
Same applies to Ferrari somewhat. Who is their next young prospect after Leclerc? Giovinazzi?
Hamilton said the enforced break caused by the coronavirus lockdown this year had refreshed him and potentially lengthened the time he could stay in F1.
“The Covid lockdown, while it was a negative in many, many ways, it gave me a lot of life and energy to focus on some other things and that bit of time off was really a bit of breathing space,” said Hamilton.
“It has given me a renewed bit of energy to perhaps go longer.
“Also, we are in period of time when there is not another driver from my background coming at the moment and I am conscious of that.
“I want to earn my position and I still feel like every year I come back it’s not a given just because I have world championships under my belt.
"You have to earn the right to be here in terms of how you perform. My goal is to continue to deliver for as long as I can, so I see myself going for at least another three years.”
Agree. If he wants to go for records then he should stay. He’d be mad to move to Ferrari at the moment If he wants that. That’s the only place I’d see him going though, just for completeness or to satisfy a need/ambition.adrianjordan wrote: ↑31 Jul 2020, 10:13Three years, so equal Schumacher this year, beat him next year and win under the new regs whilst helping to bed in a replacement at Merc...??
I just don't see Lewis going to any other team at this point. I feel we'll either see an announcement of a new contract this weekend at Silverstone or in Germany whenever that race is.
With this press release, my money is on this weekend.
Lewis has said many times that Ferrari holds no appeal for him.El Scorchio wrote: ↑31 Jul 2020, 10:31Agree. If he wants to go for records then he should stay. He’d be mad to move to Ferrari at the moment If he wants that. That’s the only place I’d see him going though, just for completeness or to satisfy a need/ambition.adrianjordan wrote: ↑31 Jul 2020, 10:13Three years, so equal Schumacher this year, beat him next year and win under the new regs whilst helping to bed in a replacement at Merc...??
I just don't see Lewis going to any other team at this point. I feel we'll either see an announcement of a new contract this weekend at Silverstone or in Germany whenever that race is.
With this press release, my money is on this weekend.
Maybe if they indulge him they’ll let an old man drive round for a season as LeClercs team mate in 2023 or something! Can’t see that happening though. Doesn’t really make sense.