[ 2020 ] AMG Mercedes F1 Team - Mercedes

[zibby43]

There are a few Toto haters on this board. I feel that they would view him quite differently if they were under his leadership, as opposed to cheering for a rival team.

A letter sent from Toto to the entire Mercedes F1 team after the Styrian Grand Prix:

[Wynters]

I'd be super interested if anyone could post Bottas' S2 time and Hamilton's S2 time on their puncture laps? I'm not sure where to find lap-by-lap sector times.

[Just_a_fan]

Looking at the onboard, both of Hamilton's front tyres were going. If the left hadn't, the right probably would have. You can as he goes around Abbey and through the loop and on to the Wellington straight, the right tyre is showing sidewall deflections and there is stuff flaying off the tread. I bet it only survived because the left one failed and he slowed down.

But 6th gear down Hanger straight and 4th gear through Stowe is just mad.

[Morteza]

[El Scorchio]

I'd be super interested if anyone could post Bottas' S2 time and Hamilton's S2 time on their puncture laps? I'm not sure where to find lap-by-lap sector times.

It's striking how calm they both are given the circumstances. You would barely know anything is wrong. I suppose they were half expecting it after what happened to Bottas, but still. Can't say I'd have been that calm as either driver or engineer.

[Wynters]

https://youtu.be/OsiYpRoUl6c

Interesting to hear that Bottas Q2 set of Mediums were so badly damaged that they had to replace one of the tyres (rear right) due to gravel and cuts.

[Schuttelberg]

Agree. I think there’s no doubt they are not as aggressive with each other as with other drivers and clearly only go for very clean moves on each other. It’s a different world from Hamilton and Rosberg post Monaco 2014....

I find this discussion a bit puzzling. People talk about Rosberg and his 'aggression' in 2016 and it was really just him being clumsy. Every time he saw Hamilton in his mirrors he had a panic attack. Austria was awful, Malaysia he passed Raikkonen and was lucky to not have a broken suspension. I think Spain had more to do with Hamilton being impatient and running into Rosberg rather than Rosberg getting his elbows out. He simply blocked the inside and Hamilton had so much more BHP that he could have coasted around the outside.

The race craft between Rosberg and Bottas is more or less similar. Bottas is less likely to crash because he badly wants a contract renewal almost always. The difference between the pair is in speed. Rosberg was as good as Hamilton on Saturday's (by that I mean in a dominant car) and Rosberg didn't have the race pace to pass Hamilton but he would keep him in check and honest. Bottas hasn't a hope on Sunday. Rosberg if ahead after turn 1 could keep it together for the rest of the race 6-7 out of 10 times. Bottas will do it 1-2 times and generally when Hamilton is having some sort of issue.

I will say it as many times as possible and be annoying- Rosberg/Hamilton is the best driver line up in modern day F1 very closely matched by Verstappen and Ricciardo followed by Vettel/Leclerc. I think the sample size on the latter are smaller but the first one is just a slam dunk. Mercedes are also in a cycle where their premiere driver who also happens to be in the top 3 all time list is in the twilight of his career and they have a passenger in the second car with two young guns raring to go for the big time. If Mercedes want to prepare for the future and continue being the excellence and relentlessness personified team in F1, they should put Ocon/Russell in the second seat as soon as next year. Hamilton will put them on a slice of bread with cheese and have either for breakfast if he wishes but it will prepare the other for the future and both are fabulous prospects, specially Russell. 2021 also provides a unique opportunity in the sense that Mercedes know they will win both championships regardless of the driver in the second car.
But, I am dead certain it will be Bottas. I will say it for the nth time- The results Mercedes have achieved have been flattered by Hamilton's brilliance and it won't be there forever.

If by twilight you mean a driver displaying his natural raw speed remains entirely undimmed while retaining and enhancing his unique feel for grip and wet weather skills and adding unparalleled race management and tire nursing skills to his arsenal then sure the "twilight" has a fair few years to run before it fades into darkness.

What an utterly dumb response. I really could not find a more polite word. Where in my post have I said that Lewis has lost any of his skills? But if you think Lewis is a spring chicken who will race another 15 years, then I really have nothing to say.

[Schuttelberg]

Agree. I think there’s no doubt they are not as aggressive with each other as with other drivers and clearly only go for very clean moves on each other. It’s a different world from Hamilton and Rosberg post Monaco 2014....

I find this discussion a bit puzzling. People talk about Rosberg and his 'aggression' in 2016 and it was really just him being clumsy. Every time he saw Hamilton in his mirrors he had a panic attack. Austria was awful, Malaysia he passed Raikkonen and was lucky to not have a broken suspension. I think Spain had more to do with Hamilton being impatient and running into Rosberg rather than Rosberg getting his elbows out. He simply blocked the inside and Hamilton had so much more BHP that he could have coasted around the outside.

The race craft between Rosberg and Bottas is more or less similar. Bottas is less likely to crash because he badly wants a contract renewal almost always. The difference between the pair is in speed. Rosberg was as good as Hamilton on Saturday's (by that I mean in a dominant car) and Rosberg didn't have the race pace to pass Hamilton but he would keep him in check and honest. Bottas hasn't a hope on Sunday. Rosberg if ahead after turn 1 could keep it together for the rest of the race 6-7 out of 10 times. Bottas will do it 1-2 times and generally when Hamilton is having some sort of issue.

I will say it as many times as possible and be annoying- Rosberg/Hamilton is the best driver line up in modern day F1 very closely matched by Verstappen and Ricciardo followed by Vettel/Leclerc. I think the sample size on the latter are smaller but the first one is just a slam dunk. Mercedes are also in a cycle where their premiere driver who also happens to be in the top 3 all time list is in the twilight of his career and they have a passenger in the second car with two young guns raring to go for the big time. If Mercedes want to prepare for the future and continue being the excellence and relentlessness personified team in F1, they should put Ocon/Russell in the second seat as soon as next year. Hamilton will put them on a slice of bread with cheese and have either for breakfast if he wishes but it will prepare the other for the future and both are fabulous prospects, specially Russell. 2021 also provides a unique opportunity in the sense that Mercedes know they will win both championships regardless of the driver in the second car.
But, I am dead certain it will be Bottas. I will say it for the nth time- The results Mercedes have achieved have been flattered by Hamilton's brilliance and it won't be there forever.

I think you're slightly missing the point.Hamilton and Rosberg were very aggressive with each other and both initiated contact or moves that would put the other off the track numerous times, sometimes to the detriment of the team. There was animosity and both wanted to beat the other in the worst way possible.

With Hamilton and Bottas it's extremely cordial in comparison and undoubtedly they will race but neither ever puts the other into a bad situation or either car at risk. Best example is Hamilton on the first lap of Baku last year. He had the chance to easily run Bottas wide and pass, but clearly backed out of it slightly. Just like Bottas in the first corner last weekend where the door was definitely half open. If this was Rosberg and Hamilton, both would have undoubtedly gone much more aggressive to get ahead. There is a clearly an agreement after the Rosberg/Hamilton situation to respect the other driver and not put the cars at risk, which so far both drivers seem willing to stick to.

You can make your own conclusions as to why that may be or whether that may change if they came into the final race of the season only a couple of points apart in the standings, but nevertheless I cannot recall a single instance of it getting 'tasty' between them on track which is very unusual for two drivers in their situation, or a single crossed word with or about the other.

You and I are basically agreeing. I think the day and age of having a Schumacher type situation with lapdog services are in the past. I categorise Bottas in that bracket. I don't think you have a situation anymore where there are a few excellent drivers and a few excellent drives. I think supply is plenty and there are very few good seats around.
I think Rosberg and Button are actually the reason Hamilton is the driver he is today and Rosberg and Hamilton's combination also pushed Mercedes along. They in my opinion, found the perfect balance of having one ace in the pack (Hamilton) and one very capable ace (Rosberg). I'm dead certain Bottas would not have won the championship in 2018 and perhaps even in 2017. I think we are now in an era where you absolutely need two drivers capable of winning a championship and I know that Bottas is not a challenge for Hamilton. The formula works right now, but if Hamilton decides to call it a day Mercedes are going to be in a whole heap of trouble. They anyway will be, but even more without a polished Ocon/Russell.
To over simplify things, that contact and that slight animosity comes with an edge which isn't there at Mercedes and it works just fine for the drivers but not the team in the long run. You don't have to be bitter about it like Rosberg, but you can make it work like Ricciardo/Verstappen or Leclerc/Vettel. I think if you had someone like Lauda at Ferrari, 2019 would have been a lot different from managing the drivers side.

[tangodjango]

I find this discussion a bit puzzling. People talk about Rosberg and his 'aggression' in 2016 and it was really just him being clumsy. Every time he saw Hamilton in his mirrors he had a panic attack. Austria was awful, Malaysia he passed Raikkonen and was lucky to not have a broken suspension. I think Spain had more to do with Hamilton being impatient and running into Rosberg rather than Rosberg getting his elbows out. He simply blocked the inside and Hamilton had so much more BHP that he could have coasted around the outside.

The race craft between Rosberg and Bottas is more or less similar. Bottas is less likely to crash because he badly wants a contract renewal almost always. The difference between the pair is in speed. Rosberg was as good as Hamilton on Saturday's (by that I mean in a dominant car) and Rosberg didn't have the race pace to pass Hamilton but he would keep him in check and honest. Bottas hasn't a hope on Sunday. Rosberg if ahead after turn 1 could keep it together for the rest of the race 6-7 out of 10 times. Bottas will do it 1-2 times and generally when Hamilton is having some sort of issue.

I will say it as many times as possible and be annoying- Rosberg/Hamilton is the best driver line up in modern day F1 very closely matched by Verstappen and Ricciardo followed by Vettel/Leclerc. I think the sample size on the latter are smaller but the first one is just a slam dunk. Mercedes are also in a cycle where their premiere driver who also happens to be in the top 3 all time list is in the twilight of his career and they have a passenger in the second car with two young guns raring to go for the big time. If Mercedes want to prepare for the future and continue being the excellence and relentlessness personified team in F1, they should put Ocon/Russell in the second seat as soon as next year. Hamilton will put them on a slice of bread with cheese and have either for breakfast if he wishes but it will prepare the other for the future and both are fabulous prospects, specially Russell. 2021 also provides a unique opportunity in the sense that Mercedes know they will win both championships regardless of the driver in the second car.
But, I am dead certain it will be Bottas. I will say it for the nth time- The results Mercedes have achieved have been flattered by Hamilton's brilliance and it won't be there forever.

If by twilight you mean a driver displaying his natural raw speed remains entirely undimmed while retaining and enhancing his unique feel for grip and wet weather skills and adding unparalleled race management and tire nursing skills to his arsenal then sure the "twilight" has a fair few years to run before it fades into darkness.

What an utterly dumb response. I really could not find a more polite word. Where in my post have I said that Lewis has lost any of his skills? But if you think Lewis is a spring chicken who will race another 15 years, then I really have nothing to say.

I think he can easily go to 40. To be fair twilight kind of implies he's just about to drop off from his previous level whether you explicitly stated it or not.

[Morteza]

[notsofast]

I am dead certain it will be Bottas

You called it.

[Wynters]

I'm dead certain Bottas would not have won the championship in 2018 and perhaps even in 2017.

Agreed.

I am dead certain it will be Bottas

Astute call.

I can't think of a better time to promote a junior driver and Mercedes have ignored it. I thought they were cleverer than that. He'll be 31 later this month, so 34+(?) when Hamilton leaves? I'm sure their rivals will be shaking in their boots at the idea of a physically declining Bottas leading the fight when Verstappen and Leclerc will be in their mid-twenties with half-a-decade of experience under their belts.

[SmallSoldier]

I'm dead certain Bottas would not have won the championship in 2018 and perhaps even in 2017.

Agreed.

I am dead certain it will be Bottas

Astute call.

I can't think of a better time to promote a junior driver and Mercedes have ignored it. I thought they were cleverer than that. He'll be 31 later this month, so 34+(?) when Hamilton leaves? I'm sure their rivals will be shaking in their boots at the idea of a physically declining Bottas leading the fight when Verstappen and Leclerc will be in their mid-twenties with half-a-decade of experience under their belts.

I don’t think it’s a great time to promote a driver, Russell which is probably the only one to be in that list still only has one complete season under his belt, he is still developing and maturing as a driver... With Hamilton probably locked in for at least 3 more years, there’s no need to rush Russell, especially next season where the regulations/cars will almost be the same.

This season and next at Williams will be good for George and might be more prepared to make the jump in 2022 with the new set of regulations.


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[Fulcrum]

I think you're slightly missing the point.Hamilton and Rosberg were very aggressive with each other and both initiated contact or moves that would put the other off the track numerous times, sometimes to the detriment of the team. There was animosity and both wanted to beat the other in the worst way possible.

With Hamilton and Bottas it's extremely cordial in comparison and undoubtedly they will race but neither ever puts the other into a bad situation or either car at risk. Best example is Hamilton on the first lap of Baku last year. He had the chance to easily run Bottas wide and pass, but clearly backed out of it slightly. Just like Bottas in the first corner last weekend where the door was definitely half open. If this was Rosberg and Hamilton, both would have undoubtedly gone much more aggressive to get ahead. There is a clearly an agreement after the Rosberg/Hamilton situation to respect the other driver and not put the cars at risk, which so far both drivers seem willing to stick to.

The degree of friendship/animosity between teammates is a function of:

#1 How competitive their car is.
#2 How competitive the drivers are with each other.
#3 The normal things - e.g. actual inter-personal relationships.


I'd say the circumstances for #1 are definitely different. Teams other than Mercedes have won far more races during 2017-2019 than was the case in 2014-2016.

2014-2016 - 8 wins for others, 51 for Mercedes, 31 for Hamilton. 86.44% win rate for Mercedes, 52.54% for Hamilton.
2017-2019 - 24 wins for others, 38 for Mercedes, 31 for Hamilton. 61.29% win rate, 50% for Hamilton.


Looking at #2, the face-value evidence suggests Bottas is simply not as competitive as Rosberg was.

From 2014-2016 Hamilton scored 1145 points. Rosberg scored 1024 points, or 89.43% of Hamilton's total.
From 2017-2019 Hamilton scored 1184 points. Bottas scored 878, or 74.16% of Hamilton's total.

From 2014-2016 Hamilton won 31 races. Rosberg won 20 races; 64.52%.
From 2017-2019 Hamilton won 31 races. Bottas won 7 races; 22.58%.

However, these results are confounded by the fact Mercedes enjoyed less dominance over the field in 2017-2019 than it did in 2014-2016, meaning they may flatter Rosberg. Some members of this forum have pointed out that Rosberg could have an off weekend in 2014, and still finish 2nd, such was the dominance of the car. The same would have applied to Hamilton.

E.g. Where before, were Mercedes to start from the back of the grid, we could expect them to finish, at worst, 3rd or 4th, but frequently 1st or 2nd. Today, they would find it much more difficult to make the podium.

That said, there are two major problems when trying to assert that Bottas is the equivalent, or better than, Rosberg.

By hook or by crook, Rosberg managed to sustain a challenge to Hamilton throughout an entire season. I've heard a lot of excuses for this from the forum, and I've given evidence to motivate for one myself (car dominance), but the fact remains that Rosberg usurped Hamilton on the scoreboard over the course of a season. That's the least triggering way of saying he beat Hamilton, which some members will never accept. Bottas has shown he can be quick for a race weekend or two, but he hasn't shown an ability to remain consistently quick over multiple race weekends.

The second issue is simply 2018. Without additional context, one wonders how Bottas managed to retain his seat at Mercedes after 2018.

Bottas, 0 race wins, 8 podiums, 5th place in the Championship, only 60.5% of Hamilton's points total.
Hamilton, 11 race wins, 6 additional podiums, 1st place in the Championship.

Never, at least since 2014, has the distinction between Mercedes drivers been more stark than it was during 2018.


Assessing #3 is fairly straight forward at face value. Hamilton and Rosberg expressed much greater levels of disaffection for one another than has been the case between Hamilton and Bottas. They had a long history prior to being teammates at Mercedes. My guess is they were never friends, but being more familiar made it easier to detect weakness in character. Knowing your teammate was your sole rival for the title just increased this dynamic. I also think it is fair to say Rosberg did everything in his power to play to the letter of the law, rather than the spirit of it at times, partially because it was effective at unsettling Hamilton.

All of the above lead me to believe Rosberg was a much more competitive teammate than Bottas will ever be (prove me wrong Bottas). BUT, by the same logic, Bottas is a better teammate for Hamilton. Hamilton has Bottas under control, there is no threat, however slight, and Bottas is good enough to ensure Mercedes secure the Constructor's championship.

I'm in agreement with Schuttelberg though. Maintaining this status quo will come back to bite Mercedes, because they are overly dependent on Hamilton.

Bottas being signed for another year probably means Hamilton will be sticking around for 2021 and 2022 at a minimum. Maybe 10 Driver's Championships are on the cards?

[Wynters]

I'm dead certain Bottas would not have won the championship in 2018 and perhaps even in 2017.

Agreed.

I am dead certain it will be Bottas

Astute call.

I can't think of a better time to promote a junior driver and Mercedes have ignored it. I thought they were cleverer than that. He'll be 31 later this month, so 34+(?) when Hamilton leaves? I'm sure their rivals will be shaking in their boots at the idea of a physically declining Bottas leading the fight when Verstappen and Leclerc will be in their mid-twenties with half-a-decade of experience under their belts.

I don’t think it’s a great time to promote a driver, Russell which is probably the only one to be in that list still only has one complete season under his belt, he is still developing and maturing as a driver... With Hamilton probably locked in for at least 3 more years, there’s no need to rush Russell, especially next season where the regulations/cars will almost be the same.

This season and next at Williams will be good for George and might be more prepared to make the jump in 2022 with the new set of regulations.

Ah, but that season of regs lock in is why it's such a good time. Mercedes are miles ahead of everyone and will remain so next season. That means that a new driver can under-perform quite happily next year with no negative consequences, they'll get easy podiums (even wins if Hamilton has a mishap) and the intense pressure that would accompany such a shift will be lessened. It also means that the design for the post-2021 season will be able to incorporate the existence of that new driver into its make up and gives the driver a year of experience and relationship building within the team before that's properly tested.

Not promoting means...Bottas/Russell in the 2023 (?) season? Bottas will be mid-thirties (older than Hulkenburg & Vettel are now) and Russell will have to spend a year driving a car that wasn't designed for him, in a team and car concept with which he is unfamiliar (e.g. how long did it take Ricciardo to get used to the different balance and brakes of the Renault), whilst Red Bull and Ferrari (et al) have had three years to close the gap.

Of the two scenarios, which sounds like the best option for integrating a new driver without weakening the team sufficiently for championships to be threatened?