NathanOlder wrote: ↑10 Feb 2021, 12:21
aMessageToCharlie wrote: ↑09 Feb 2021, 23:03
NathanOlder wrote: ↑09 Feb 2021, 22:18
Absolutely not. Rosberg had 3 years in a WCC car and all 3 years (100%) they smashed the rest.
Bottas has had 4yrs in a WCC and 50% of those they smashed the rest.
100% > 50%
2017 WCC & WDC: Mercedes
2018 WCC & WDC: Mercedes
2019 WCC & WDC: Mercedes
2020 WCC & WDC: Mercedes
4/4 = 100%
Were talking about dominant cars , not just a WCC winner.
Lets look at some stats to back up my side of this debate
The gap between 2nd and 1st in the WCC
Rosberg era
2014 Merc scored 73% more than 2nd place
2015 Merc scored 64% more than 2nd place
2016 Merc scored 63% more than 2nd place
average 67%
Bottas era
2017 Merc scored 27% more than 2nd place
2018 Merc scored 14% more than 2nd place
2019 Merc scored 46% more than 2nd place
2020 Merc scored 79% more than 2nd place
average 42%
Now please explain how Bottas car was just as dominant as Rosbergs ?! Thats a huge difference. So I think you are wrong on your claim.
Part of the problem with your analysis is it is confounded by the variable we're trying to differentiate, i.e. the driver.
You can't separate the driver from the era. Your argument fails to refute the claim that Bottas is a significant component of the variance in Mercedes performance. I.e. the team differential has narrowed because Bottas is a weaker second driver.
By way of example, analyzing the performance of Hamilton across both the Rosberg and Bottas era leads to exactly the opposite conclusion.
Consider the number of points Hamilton has scored as a percentage of the maximum points available.
2014-2016 - Hamilton scored 1145 points of a potential 1500; 76.33% of the maximum, or, an average of 19.41 points per race.
2017-2020 - Hamilton scored 1531 points of a potential 2013; 76.06% of the maximum, or, an average of 19.38 points per race.
Even if you correct for the Abu Dhabi double points in 2014, and remove points for Fastest laps, the averages are fairly similar. 18.98 prior to 2017, 19.23 post 2016.
The difference in mean scores is not statistically significant.
Looking at individual years:
2014 - 76.8%
2015 - 80.2%
2016 - 72.4%
2017 - 72.6%
2018 - 77.7%
2019 - 75.6%
2020 - 78.5%
The data shows a remarkable consistency in performance. Irrespective of the perceived dominance, or otherwise, of the car, Hamilton lands up in much the same place every year.
The conclusion being, the equipment has very definitely been available to exploit by whoever had the capacity to do so. The primary difference being, Bottas lacks this capacity.