Silly season 2021-2022-2023

[Just_a_fan]

Consider the number of points Hamilton has scored as a percentage of the maximum points available.

2014-2016 - Hamilton scored 1145 points of a potential 1500; 76.33% of the maximum, or, an average of 19.41 points per race.

2017-2020 - Hamilton scored 1531 points of a potential 2013; 76.06% of the maximum, or, an average of 19.38 points per race.

Even if you correct for the Abu Dhabi double points in 2014, and remove points for Fastest laps, the averages are fairly similar. 18.98 prior to 2017, 19.23 post 2016.

The difference in mean scores is not statistically significant.

Looking at individual years:

2014 - 76.8%
2015 - 80.2%
2016 - 72.4%
2017 - 72.6%
2018 - 77.7%
2019 - 75.6%
2020 - 78.5%

The data shows a remarkable consistency in performance. Irrespective of the perceived dominance, or otherwise, of the car, Hamilton lands up in much the same place every year.

The conclusion being, the equipment has very definitely been available to exploit by whoever had the capacity to do so. The primary difference being, Bottas lacks this capacity.

It's worth noting that consistency. That's what makes him different to many others on the grid and similar to drivers like Michael. It's the grinding consistency that wins titles and then multiple titles. It's something that Hamilton has developed - he makes very few mistakes these days and that allows him to maximise his results from some exceptional hardware. And in races that aren't straightforward - Turkey 2020 for example - still drag results out of the situation. Michael had the same ability to get the best from the hardware race after race after race. Alonso is perhaps the same. It's boring to watch from a racing perspective, yes, but it's effective. I think Max is there now, too, and if RedBull can get the hardware to be consistently front row capable, we'll see Max do what Hamilton does. Without the hardware, no one wins titles. Not Michael, not Alonso, not Hamilton. No one.

[Phil]

Every metric we apply will be in some way swayed.

Qualifying times are what they are. Points are filtered because they apply a scoring metric that weighs more heavily the higher up you finish. And again; No matter how dominant a car is, the points awarded are still the same. So you can't use points to compare if a car was more dominant overall. I think this is pretty self explanatory and shouldn't be difficult to understand.

You say that Bottas' bad stats compared to Rosberg's are the result of being disadvantaged by driving worse cars.

I disagree and I pointed out exactly how I came to that conclusion.

And your conclusion is inconclusive for the reasons stated above.

From 2014 to 2016, the Mercedes was the most dominant force bar none. Within those 3 years, there were only 8 wins that weren't achieved in a Mercedes. 3 in 2014 by Ricciardo/RedBull (pretty much luck), 3 in 2015 by Ferrari/Vettel and in 2016 there were 2 wins for Max and Ricciardo (also pretty much luck, i.e. Barcelona 2016). Those are from a total of 59 races.

In just 2017 and 2018 alone, Ferrari amassed a total of 11 wins alone. If we add in the 7 wins from RedBull we have a sum of 18 wins that were not by a Mercedes car in those two seasons alone.

Similarly in 2019, 6 wins (not counting Canada). This is just counting race wins. How many front row lockouts did Mercedes have in 2014-2016? How many did they have in 2017-2019? Even if you forget the lockout under the assumption that Bottas is a weaker driver, just looking at the numbers and you will see that Mercedes was challenged in 2017 and beyond as the number of poles dropped compared to the 3 previous seasons with Rosberg.

Even ignoring these numbers, it would take a fool not to realize that this has a significant impact on how races unfold. In 2014-2016, the Mercedes starting in 2nd had a relatively easy target to either be in contention for the win or finish 2nd given the relative pace advantage over the next best competitor. Having a bad start rarely had a big impact on the finishing position.

In 2017 and beyond this changed. For one, the cars became wider, more downforce, less overtaking opportunities. And the pace differential between Mercedes and the rest smaller - in fact, they were often on the backfoot compared to Vettel/Ferrari that were leading both championships for a significant time those two seasons. The weaker driver in those scenarios will always have had a tougher time because his position was more compromised, forced to play the team game or be used as strategic pawns to defend the leading driver. Rosberg was never put in that position in his years of the Mercedes dominance - in fact, he even had the benefit of getting alternative strategies to battle for the win.

I'm inclined to agree that Rosberg was stronger as a package than Bottas, so this post isn't to illustrate any other agenda - it is however to point out that Bottas isn't that far behind as your little statistics seem to suggest.

[aMessageToCharlie]

Every metric we apply will be in some way swayed.

Qualifying times are what they are. Points are filtered because they apply a scoring metric that weighs more heavily the higher up you finish. And again; No matter how dominant a car is, the points awarded are still the same. So you can't use points to compare if a car was more dominant overall. I think this is pretty self explanatory and shouldn't be difficult to understand.

You say that Bottas' bad stats compared to Rosberg's are the result of being disadvantaged by driving worse cars.

I disagree and I pointed out exactly how I came to that conclusion.

And your conclusion is inconclusive for the reasons stated above.

From 2014 to 2016, the Mercedes was the most dominant force bar none. Within those 3 years, there were only 8 wins that weren't achieved in a Mercedes. 3 in 2014 by Ricciardo/RedBull (pretty much luck), 3 in 2015 by Ferrari/Vettel and in 2016 there were 2 wins for Max and Ricciardo (also pretty much luck, i.e. Barcelona 2016). Those are from a total of 59 races.

In just 2017 and 2018 alone, Ferrari amassed a total of 11 wins alone. If we add in the 7 wins from RedBull we have a sum of 18 wins that were not by a Mercedes car in those two seasons alone.

Similarly in 2019, 6 wins (not counting Canada). This is just counting race wins. How many front row lockouts did Mercedes have in 2014-2016? How many did they have in 2017-2019? Even if you forget the lockout under the assumption that Bottas is a weaker driver, just looking at the numbers and you will see that Mercedes was challenged in 2017 and beyond as the number of poles dropped compared to the 3 previous seasons with Rosberg.

Even ignoring these numbers, it would take a fool not to realize that this has a significant impact on how races unfold. In 2014-2016, the Mercedes starting in 2nd had a relatively easy target to either be in contention for the win or finish 2nd given the relative pace advantage over the next best competitor. Having a bad start rarely had a big impact on the finishing position.

In 2017 and beyond this changed. For one, the cars became wider, more downforce, less overtaking opportunities. And the pace differential between Mercedes and the rest smaller - in fact, they were often on the backfoot compared to Vettel/Ferrari that were leading both championships for a significant time those two seasons. The weaker driver in those scenarios will always have had a tougher time because his position was more compromised, forced to play the team game or be used as strategic pawns to defend the leading driver. Rosberg was never put in that position in his years of the Mercedes dominance - in fact, he even had the benefit of getting alternative strategies to battle for the win.

I'm inclined to agree that Rosberg was stronger as a package than Bottas, so this post isn't to illustrate any other agenda - it is however to point out that Bottas isn't that far behind as your little statistics seem to suggest.

Hey, I'm not saying that my "little statistics" are the be-all and end-all, but I have yet to see a better analysis itt. So please feel free to enlighten us and post your own little statistics of qualy gaps between the two Merc and to the second best car.

[ringo]

Who is fitting in for Alonso who met in a biking accident?

[Manoah2u]

Let's just calm down and wait what the actual results are.
He's concious, and 'well within himself', so that atleast is something.
It doesn't seem like there was or is ever any life-threatening circumstances (like fe. with Kubica ages ago).
Alonso had a giant crash a few years ago where he did a corkscrew flight and iirc had rib and back injury, and only missed 1 race if im right.

Yes, we're 6 weeks away, but for people in the best of their health, and depending on the injuries, he might be fit enough to race. If he has a few serious bruises, or some fractures,
but not impeding his ability to drive and safely escape a F1 car, he could still very much participate in F1.

I think it's probable he won't be doing the pre-season testing, but even then, let's wait the actual injuries.

Most probable injuries:

Concussion - On average 4 weeks healing time.
Minor fractures - On average 6-8 weeks healing time. This includes broken wrists, ankles, ribs.

I think these are most likely 'bad' scenarios, i think worse is unlikely. All in all still actually within the possible window of actually still competing.
Offcourse the medical advisor will decide in the end, but untill we get a clear statement it's a bit of a rush to exclude him from the season opener.

Would he hover miss the start, i would be inclined to believe Alpine would rush to make use of Hulkenberg's services.

[Big Tea]

Let's just calm down and wait what the actual results are.
He's concious, and 'well within himself', so that atleast is something.
It doesn't seem like there was or is ever any life-threatening circumstances (like fe. with Kubica ages ago).
Alonso had a giant crash a few years ago where he did a corkscrew flight and iirc had rib and back injury, and only missed 1 race if im right.

Yes, we're 6 weeks away, but for people in the best of their health, and depending on the injuries, he might be fit enough to race. If he has a few serious bruises, or some fractures,
but not impeding his ability to drive and safely escape a F1 car, he could still very much participate in F1.

I think it's probable he won't be doing the pre-season testing, but even then, let's wait the actual injuries.

Most probable injuries:

Concussion - On average 4 weeks healing time.
Minor fractures - On average 6-8 weeks healing time. This includes broken wrists, ankles, ribs.

I think these are most likely 'bad' scenarios, i think worse is unlikely. All in all still actually within the possible window of actually still competing.
Offcourse the medical advisor will decide in the end, but untill we get a clear statement it's a bit of a rush to exclude him from the season opener.

Would he hover miss the start, i would be inclined to believe Alpine would rush to make use of Hulkenberg's services.

Pluss loss of fitness when he needs it most

[Manoah2u]

Sure, but hardly enough to render him unable to take part in the season opener. Perhaps not able to put down 100% performance due to the result at best. however, in the Alpine thread there are sources shown that it 'only' revolves around face injuries, loss of teeth and some jaw 'surgery'.

Two days tops before he's back in his own bed, if he isn't already, and at most he'll miss 4 to 5 days of normal full out fitness regime, and will use an adapted fitness cycle. Little to no actual influence on his fitness by the season opener i'd argue.

a few painkillers will take care of pain during (neck) workouts, and in 4 to 6 weeks he'll have no pain anymore from putting on/taking off or wearing a helmet.

https://londonnewstime.com/fernando-alo ... rts/69416/
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/moto ... b2af085e5b

if his jaw is indeed fractured (literally in half, to be clear) i think that he might miss out on pre-season testing if the 'pressure' of the helmet is concidered hampering recovery or might impose a danger in the case of an accident. Unlikely, but not fully impossible, depending on the severity of facial injury.

Any pre-season testing time Alonso misses he'll greatly compensate by using filming /promotional days and the free practice sessions.

[El Scorchio]

Horrible for Fernando and I hope firstly he's ok personally, and secondly that it won't impact his return. These things can be so so nasty and take some time to recover from.

[hUirEYExbN]

Seems it is serious but not looking to impact his pre- and in- season programme.

[graham.reeds]

How long was Mark Webber out for with his fractured leg? Can any of the recovery techniques used apply to Fernando (cryogenic spa)?

[Jolle]

How long was Mark Webber out for with his fractured leg? Can any of the recovery techniques used apply to Fernando (cryogenic spa)?

an upper jaw fracture (and some teeth) is something very different then a complex fracture of a leg. Although it hurts like hell, the upper jaw is more like a heavy dentist appointment. You're in pain for a couple of days and have a few weeks of discomfort, but for the rest, you're up and running within a few days (talking from personal experience).

[ringo]

how do we know he lost some teeth?

[hollus]

Journos.
For example spanish sports newspaper “As” cites “several sources”.

[ringo]

The same sources that reported on verdtappen clause in hamilton contract.
I guess we may have to hear it from alonso when he comes out hospital.

[Jolle]

how do we know he lost some teeth?

well... haven't read somewhere that he lost teeth, but breaking your upper jaw is almost impossible without some tooth damage. Thats how that part of your skull is constructed.